Re: [心得] 九月以後注意一些情況已回收
※ 引述《aitt (喜歡美食與運動(M))》之銘言:
: 首先是美國QE退場,QE會退主要也是股市乃至房價穩定上漲,
: 尤其是美國房價今年與明年估仍能維持5-10%的漲幅,
: 也讓他們預定年底以前結束QE,不過就算QE結束,升息也是遙遙無期,
: 就算要升恐怕也是2016下任總統以後的事了,畢竟在實質工資不進甚至反退下,
: 美國沒有條件說升就升.
就業、房價、家庭負債、通膨皆已達到FED的目標區間後
工資的確是目前FED僅存的關注指標
實質工資尚未成長,通膨就已來到2%左右
一旦工資開始上揚,通膨應該會顯著加溫
到時FED緊縮貨幣的腳步是很可能加速的
至於工資的前景,可參考這篇文章
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/99161
我判斷不會拖到2016才升息,而是明年Q2機會最大
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