[心得] QE不會退場的幾個理由已回收
最近一直討論QE退場的問題,個人的想法是至少在後年以前,QE都不會退,
甚至連減碼都不會
至少可以整理這些QE不會退的理由出來
1.美國經濟復甦沒錯,但未達到穩健中度成長(年成長率保持3%)的目標
2.美國的失業率雖然有機會降破7%,但離所謂充份就業(5%以下)仍有距離
3.美國的通膨率尚低,雖然房價大漲,但未過歷史新高,美股本益比僅16倍,
離所謂泡沫(>22倍)尚有距離,也讓續搞QE有藉口
4.歐巴馬的滿意度偏低,即便下任他不能再選,但他也會擔心QE提前退場
萬一影響經濟,影響接下來民主黨的選情,像小布希那樣當了壞人
5.FED新任主席葉倫是QE的忠實信者,之前即主張QE減碼應無限期暫緩,
至少現階段縮減QE的理由不充份
什麼時候QE會退呢? 當你看到美國失業率破5.5%,經濟成長率連兩年破3%有望,
(這時道瓊應該已經突破20000點了)那麼就是QE真的要減碼甚至退場的時機了..
不過明後年都還沒有這個問題
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