[心得] 2498 宏達電 (多)已回收
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新台幣億元 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
營業收入 1041.6 1244 1358.2 1014.2 677.9 910.4 702 600
營業毛利 304.7 357.7 380.5 275 169.7 245.9 176 138
營業費用 140 165.3 178.7 146.1 118.7 163.9 126 132
推銷費用 88.2 99.5 112 104.7 67.2 100.4 72 85
研究發展費用 39.5 50.7 47 22.2 34.3 46.3 40 34
管理及總務費用12.3 15.1 20 19.3 17.2 17.2 14 14
營業淨利 164.7 192.4 201.8 128.9 51 82 49 6
稅前淨利 170.5 199.7 212.8 131.2 55.6 88.7 39 11
稅後淨利 148.3 175.2 186.8 109.4 44.7 74 39 10
營業毛利率 29.25% 28.76% 28.02% 27.12% 25.03% 27.01% 25% 23%
營業利益率 15.81% 15.47% 14.90% 12.71% 7.53% 9% 7% 1%
每股盈餘(元) 18.36 20.64 22.07 13.06 5.35 8.9 4.7 1.21
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如同先前的文章,我把2011年和2012年的財報先列出,我的思考點是…
1) 2012 Q2,One X推出,但遭遇黃斑,與美國海關扣留等問題,在Q2的營收是
900億,那麼,2013 Q2推出的New hTC One,Q2的營收會是多少呢?
觀察的重點還是在4月的營收,假若在300億以上,那麼1000億/Q2是可期待的。
目前外資(摩根大通、大和)分別認為,5月的New one成長,分別為(200-120)/120(67%)
和(100-80)/80(25%),雖然在4月底會遇到S4,(不過我個人認為就產品面來說,
還是hTC One較有競爭力,就看S4的定價策略了)。但我猜測5月營收會略高,
我猜350億。
2) 就日前大家提到的供應鏈問題,我在 #1HPyDy67 裡列出全球開賣時間,
再比對 財政部的出口貨物與國家,可以發現佔比高的國家,幾乎都在四月下旬
開賣了,再加上這幾天的新聞,也提到慢慢解決供應鏈問題了,所以在供應鏈上,
應該也不是問題了。
3) 就策略行銷方面,hTC亦有改善。new hTC One 被認為較S4為更值得期待手機:
http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/130416/3/3qh5w.html
4) 我之前預估3月的毛利是在接近27%左右(主要是蝴蝶機貢獻),在四月之後,
new htc one的溢注,以及3c產品隨時間降價下,我先估計同樣維持在27%左右
若以(1000*27% - 180(費用))/83*10 = 10.84 的 eps
(在此,我將費用拉高到180億了,以往平均是140億/Q)
eps 30是不是可期待的?若以15倍的p/e來計算的話,股價在450。
當然,上面都是推論,我個人覺得看4月營收是關鍵,當然S4上市後的5月亦是^^
同樣歡迎大家討論囉。
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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