Re: [紅襪] 幾個消息
看板RedSox作者demintree (Mirabelli's back in tow)時間18年前 (2006/05/27 23:40)推噓0(0推 0噓 1→)留言1則, 1人參與討論串8/9 (看更多)
: There are lots of batting order studies. They're on the internet. You can
: find them using this tool called Google.
: "Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your
: fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and
: #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots.
: From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality."
: Our 3 best hitters: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Mike Lowell (for now)
: Now, had somebody suggested that say Manny Ramirez hit LEADOFF, you'd be
: all over his ass like stink on cheese.
: From the same writers:
: "If we go back to the real world of baseball, we realize that you can't hide a
: batter. The best you can do is to defer him to the bottom of the batting
: order. But even batting ninth, he will eventually come up"
: Eventually Alex Gonzalez is coming up to hit. Just how often.
: Now, this is one position on batting order
: Another position on batting order:
: "Batting order doesn't matter."
: I believe the official Bill James party line on batting order is this:
: (this is stolen from our good friend Debugger)
: "不過到目前為止這個討論分成兩派。一派包含了酒吧裡的看球專家、走傳統路線的體育
: 作家、躺在沙發上看電視的球迷、call-in 節目中常打電話進去表示意見的人,這些人
: 相信打擊順序很重要。另一派則是真正對這個問題下過功夫,這些人在作過研究之後下
: 了結論,說不管打序怎麼安排,最後的得分數都會是差不多。至於要相信哪一派的說法
: ,你可以自己選擇。"
: Believe what you like. I buy the "doesn't matter" bit because it helps
: reassure me that it doesn't matter that our manager is an idiot.
: My personal belief is that yes, it does matter, for a good team on the
: threshold. An optimal batting order over a "decent" batting order, optimizes
: what, 5 extra runs a season? Yes, that makes or breaks a season, but only
: with a decent team like the Red Sox. If you're the Royals, it wouldn't
: matter anyway, 5 runs isn't stopping you from taking the 1st overall position
: in next's entry draft. Hopefully they'll spend money on a high school pitcher
: with gas.
: Kind of like your motehr smoking while preganant with you, or not smoking.
: It would have helped that your mother DIDN'T smoke while she was pregnant,
: but you were going to be fucking retarded ANYWAY regardless of the smoking.
: You didn't have chance. Just like the Royals
其實在hard ball time裡面有一篇文章有提到如何安排棒次
裡面也引用了別人拿1989年到2002年的資料來分析
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296
在這個分析跑出來的結果發現如果第一棒的OBP多.021那麼整季將會多得10
這通常意味著多了一勝
另外這篇文章裡面的建line up的規則大概是來自於 The Book 這一本書
http://www.insidethebook.com/
The Book Says:
Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots.
Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots.
The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in
the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending
order of quality.
另外有一個規則是這樣子的
The second leadoff hitter theory exists. You can put your pitcher in the eighth
slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year
所以把最弱棒放在第八棒,讓第九棒跟第一棒連線也不是不可以的事
本版1519篇benchman把這篇文章的大意說了一下,有興趣可以看看
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