[外電] B.J. Upton Now Differently Confounding
※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1GJ_Yf8e ]
作者: JakeMcGee (Jake McGee) 看板: MLB
標題: [外電] B.J. Upton Now Differently Confounding
時間: Wed Sep 12 10:51:16 2012
B.J. Upton Now Differently Confounding
http://ppt.cc/WpRN
by Jeff Sullivan - September 10, 2012
Things to know before we proceed with this article about B.J. Upton:
關於B.J Upton 有些事情在閱讀下列文章前要了解:
(1) B.J. Upton is set to become a free agent after the end of this season,
and he is newly 28 years old.
(1)B.J今年球季結束後將成為FA 他今年28歲
(2) Yesterday, in the last game of a series between the Rays and the Rangers,
B.J. Upton slugged three home runs. They were his 19th, 20th, and 21st home
runs of the year.
(2) 在光芒跟條子系列賽的最後一場 B.J 單場擊出三響炮(19,20,21)
I was tricking you before — this article about B.J. Upton began with the
word "Things". Now let us move on to the rest of it!
Upton is no stranger to transaction talk, and it's something of a minor
miracle that he's still with the Rays considering how often he's been in
the middle of trade rumors. Now people get to talk about him as a potential
free-agent acquisition, and as a potential free-agent acquisition, Upton is
as confusing as he's ever been. I mean, on the one hand, I guess he isn't
confusing at all. He remains an everyday center fielder who is more than
capable of handling the position. Here are Upton's wRC+ figures for the last
three seasons:
B.J轉隊的消息一直沒有少過 但是都沒有被光芒交易出去
看看近三年的wRC+
2010: 113 wRC+
2011: 115
2012: 113
[註]wRC+是根據wOBA來算出 再加上調整球場等 聯盟平均是100
I bet I can guess how projection systems are going to view Upton going
forward. But remember that Upton was the second overall pick in 2002, and
remember that he's always seemed capable of more than he's done. Upton,
like his brother, is blessed with more tools than you can keep in one shed,
but he only very seldom puts them all to proper use. Additionally, below the
surface, there have been changes, and it's those changes that I'm here to
talk about.
我打賭我大概可以猜出預測系統對於B.J未來的表現 但請記得他是2002選秀探花
而且他似乎可以做出超過他目前所能做到的表現
B.J就像他的弟弟(Justin)擁有一身非常好的天份 但B.J目前卻沒完全展露出來
他目前有些改變 而這些改變將是我接下來談的
I think the easiest way to lay this out is like so: five years ago, Upton
finished with 93 unintentional walks and 134 strikeouts. That's a whole lot
of patience, from a very young player. So far this season, Upton has 39
unintentional walks and 144 strikeouts. Forget about the different sample
sizes and just focus on the ratios. Clearly, B.J. Upton has changed as a
hitter. And the evidence suggests that he isn't done changing.
我覺得最簡單去瞭解的方法是看過去
五年前 Upton球季成績是 93BB(未含IBB) 134K 在年輕選手中 他是非常有耐心的
今年他只有39BB(未含IBB) 但是有144K
忘記那不同的樣本大小 我們來看看比率
明顯的Upton改變了 而且就目前觀察還再持續改變
Here is a very terrible graphic I whipped up to compare B.J. Upton to Bobby
Abreu. I selected Upton because this article is about Upton. I selected Abreu
because he was the first guy who came to mind when I thought about a
consistent veteran. I put part of Abreu's name in parentheses because he
seems old enough to just go by Bob now. We look at three different
plate-discipline statistics:
下列是個滿可怕的圖表 是用Upton跟Abreu來相比
會用Abreu是因為他是位非常穩定的老經驗打者
我們來看看三種不同的數據(本壘板紀律XD)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/uptonabreu.png
I warned you before that this was terrible. Upton's overall swing rate is on
the rise, his first-pitch swing rate is on the rise, and his contact rate is
going down. Bobby Abreu has been Bobby Abreu. The once selective Upton has
become more and more aggressive, and still it continues.
嗯 看起來相當可怕
Upton的揮棒率持續升高 揮第一球的比率也升高 然後contact持續下降
Abreu看起來還是Abreu 看起來Upton的攻擊慾望持續攀高 而且好像還沒有停喔
Through August 10 of this season, Upton owned a .676 OPS. The
free-agent-to-be wasn't doing anything to boost his value, and then on
August 11, Upton hit two home runs. Upton hit three home runs yesterday, on
September 10. FanGraphs leaderboards have a very handy “Last 30 Days”
option in the pull-down menu for splits, and the last 30 days capture both
August 11 and September 10. Upton has been streaking. Over the last 30 days,
Upton has posted the fourth-highest wRC+ in baseball, at 193. He's right in
between Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera, and that tends to be good company
as offensive statistics are concerned. Yet at the same time, over the last 30
days, Upton has posted the very lowest contact rate in baseball, at 57
percent. The next-lowest belongs to Chris Carter, at 63 percent. Upton's
hottest stretch at the plate by one statistic coincides with his coldest
stretch at the plate by another. Not that contact rate is even close to being
as important as wRC+, but this is weird. Upton has hit the crap out of the
ball. At the same time he's posted a lower contact rate than Aroldis Chapman
has allowed.
在8/10以前 Upton只有.676的OPS 這對即將成為FA爭取下份合約的他 毫無幫助
然後8/11 他單場扛出兩發HR 接著9/10單場三響炮
在FanGraphs leaderboards的最近30天裡(8/11-9/10) Upton成績狂奔
近30天 他的wRC+是193 就在Adrian Beltre跟Miguel Cabrera之間
但在這30天 Upton的Contact下降到57% 在這之上的是Chris Carter的63%
contact跟wRC+的關係算是密切 但這麼低的Contact卻有這麼高的wRC+ 滿奇特的
As the Rays have scrambled back into the playoff race, Upton has done a lot
to boost his value as a free agent, but even his value boost carries a major
red flag. He's hit, and he's hit for power, but how much of that can
continue if he keeps on swinging and missing? What is the story behind all of
the swings and misses?
正當光芒在進軍季後賽的路程中 Upton的火力讓他的價值暴升(尤其是FA)
但他的表現事實上舉了紅旗
他打出了很多的HR 但他可以持續這樣的表現? 尤其是在他持續降低的contact
Let's break Upton's 2012 season down, splitting after August 10. A table:
我將Upton的成績以8/10做為分界點
Split O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% Contact% 1st% OPS
Through 8/10 29% 71% 50% 73% 44% 0.676
Since 8/11 35% 73% 53% 57% 52% 1.050
I can't stop staring at the recent contact rate. It is such a low contact
rate. That is three whiffs for every seven swings. But one can't ignore the
far right column, and one can't ignore that the numbers in the far right
column correspond with increased aggressiveness in the other columns. Upton's
swung at more balls, more strikes, more first pitches — more everything,
and when he's hit the ball, he's pummeled the ball. He's hit the ball some.
我無法不去注意那Contact% 幾乎是揮7次就會有3次揮空!!!
但是卻也無法忽視那漂亮的OPS 他揮多更積極 但是球也飛的越遠
Right now, what's important isn't B.J. Upton's free agency. Upton and the
Rays are trying to get to the playoffs, and lately Upton has done a lot more
helping than hurting. Over 28 games over those last 30 days, he’s hit 11
home runs and also stolen eight bases for good measure. But what matters for
Upton's free agency is also what matters right now. And that's the question
of: how good is B.J. Upton going to be? He's a tricky one to pin down. Some
numbers suggest that right now he's locked in, and some numbers suggest the
very opposite. Some numbers suggest that Upton is beginning to really tap
into his abundant potential, and some numbers suggest that he's going to get
exposed once pitchers figure out what he's doing.
現在最重要的不是Upton是不是FA
Upton跟光芒正在為季後賽奮戰 近30天的28場比賽他擊出11發HR外加8次盜壘
問題是Upton到底能有多好? 各種數據指出不同的面相 有的好 有的壞
For the final month or so, the Rays will have a player who is very good, very
frustrating, or somewhere in between. It'll probably be the same story for
Upton after this last stretch is over and he finds a new home. I don't know
what Upton's numbers are going to look like between now and the end of the
year, but for a month he's seemingly been all-or-nothing to an extreme
degree. B.J. Upton's hot streak has undeniably been a hot streak, but it's
been a hot streak far different from most.
在球季的最後一個月 光芒將會有一個很強,很掙扎或是在兩者其中的打者(Upton)
這種表現也會出現在球季後 或許在換個新家後
我完全無法預測Upton未來的成績
他現在很燙 但這跟一般進入暴衝期的打者完全不同
--
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