[心得] 回測總是最美~~上線是殘酷der~
最近在研究期貨投資的策略~~
回測出一組還不錯的線圖
跟大家分享一下~~~
http://imgur.com/a/Ba2zW
標的: 大台
回測區間: 2007.7~2016.12 (9.5年)
操作次數: 117次 (多空換手不空手)
獲利次數: 56 (平均 410點)
虧損次數: 61 (平均-124點)
MDD: 906點
50萬操作1口
100萬可以操作2口
依照回測結果,大約10年1口可以賺300萬
一年大概30萬,感覺好像還不錯
不過回測總是最美~~~~
上線是殘酷DER~~~
有在回測的大大也分享一下~~回測要注意那些數據吧~~
感恩
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Option/M.1482302450.A.090.html
推
12/21 14:47, , 1F
12/21 14:47, 1F
MDD高所以預計準備50萬做1口,扣除保證金10萬
可以抵抗2000點的MDD~~哈哈哈
補一下回測的分年累積好了
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
584 3081 2030 2274 1088 978 621 1574 2216 970
2007只有半年,所以最差是2013的621
※ 編輯: JasonCT (111.250.2.240), 12/21/2016 14:57:46
推
12/21 14:55, , 2F
12/21 14:55, 2F
→
12/21 14:56, , 3F
12/21 14:56, 3F
其實是不只12次,應該是訊號出現12次,每個月要轉倉所以操作次數應該會多一點
持有時間滿長的,所以訊號出現次數滿少的,所以MDD也高
※ 編輯: JasonCT (111.250.2.240), 12/21/2016 14:59:11
→
12/21 14:59, , 4F
12/21 14:59, 4F
推
12/21 15:02, , 5F
12/21 15:02, 5F
→
12/21 15:03, , 6F
12/21 15:03, 6F
恩恩恩~~MDD大概35%是有點恐怖沒錯...不過1~2口的話應該還免免強強
推
12/21 15:03, , 7F
12/21 15:03, 7F
推
12/21 15:08, , 8F
12/21 15:08, 8F
推
12/21 15:14, , 9F
12/21 15:14, 9F
※ 編輯: JasonCT (111.250.2.240), 12/21/2016 15:18:02
推
12/21 15:17, , 10F
12/21 15:17, 10F
恩恩恩~~MDD 906是滿嚇人的~~其中出現比較大的DD是 906/788/702,有3次
※ 編輯: JasonCT (111.250.2.240), 12/21/2016 15:19:49
推
12/21 15:24, , 11F
12/21 15:24, 11F
推
12/21 16:07, , 12F
12/21 16:07, 12F
推
12/21 16:41, , 13F
12/21 16:41, 13F
→
12/21 17:25, , 14F
12/21 17:25, 14F
→
12/21 17:25, , 15F
12/21 17:25, 15F
→
12/21 17:51, , 16F
12/21 17:51, 16F
推
12/21 18:30, , 17F
12/21 18:30, 17F
推
12/21 18:58, , 18F
12/21 18:58, 18F
推
12/21 19:30, , 19F
12/21 19:30, 19F
→
12/21 19:30, , 20F
12/21 19:30, 20F
→
12/21 19:38, , 21F
12/21 19:38, 21F
→
12/21 19:38, , 22F
12/21 19:38, 22F
→
12/21 19:38, , 23F
12/21 19:38, 23F
→
12/21 19:38, , 24F
12/21 19:38, 24F
→
12/21 19:43, , 25F
12/21 19:43, 25F
推
12/21 20:15, , 26F
12/21 20:15, 26F
→
12/21 20:15, , 27F
12/21 20:15, 27F
推
12/21 20:28, , 28F
12/21 20:28, 28F
→
12/21 20:28, , 29F
12/21 20:28, 29F
推
12/21 20:34, , 30F
12/21 20:34, 30F
→
12/21 20:34, , 31F
12/21 20:34, 31F
推
12/21 20:52, , 32F
12/21 20:52, 32F
推
12/21 21:18, , 33F
12/21 21:18, 33F
推
12/21 21:19, , 34F
12/21 21:19, 34F
→
12/21 21:20, , 35F
12/21 21:20, 35F
推
12/21 21:22, , 36F
12/21 21:22, 36F
推
12/21 21:34, , 37F
12/21 21:34, 37F
→
12/21 22:19, , 38F
12/21 22:19, 38F
噓
12/21 22:32, , 39F
12/21 22:32, 39F
→
12/21 22:33, , 40F
12/21 22:33, 40F
→
12/21 22:33, , 41F
12/21 22:33, 41F
→
12/21 22:36, , 42F
12/21 22:36, 42F
→
12/21 22:36, , 43F
12/21 22:36, 43F
→
12/21 22:37, , 44F
12/21 22:37, 44F
→
12/21 22:40, , 45F
12/21 22:40, 45F
推
12/21 22:40, , 46F
12/21 22:40, 46F
→
12/21 22:42, , 47F
12/21 22:42, 47F
→
12/21 23:48, , 48F
12/21 23:48, 48F
→
12/21 23:49, , 49F
12/21 23:49, 49F
→
12/21 23:49, , 50F
12/21 23:49, 50F
→
12/21 23:51, , 51F
12/21 23:51, 51F
噓
12/22 00:08, , 52F
12/22 00:08, 52F
推
12/22 00:21, , 53F
12/22 00:21, 53F
→
12/22 00:21, , 54F
12/22 00:21, 54F
→
12/22 00:21, , 55F
12/22 00:21, 55F
推
12/22 00:59, , 56F
12/22 00:59, 56F
推
12/22 01:02, , 57F
12/22 01:02, 57F
推
12/22 03:48, , 58F
12/22 03:48, 58F
→
12/22 03:48, , 59F
12/22 03:48, 59F
推
12/22 09:03, , 60F
12/22 09:03, 60F
→
12/23 02:28, , 61F
12/23 02:28, 61F
→
12/23 11:02, , 62F
12/23 11:02, 62F
推
12/24 14:58, , 63F
12/24 14:58, 63F
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