[其他] 0504盤前歷史回測分析
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圖文版:http://www.brain168.com/#!/blog/743e4120-864b-44af-af72-0194160c4afe
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今天把整個條件單做一個修正,並找了最近幾天來作測試,最後發現只考慮近3日k線,不
考慮均線及量能的分析結果,與目前的走勢最具參考價值,故重新修正程式內容,改為只
分析3k線來作判斷,希望能藉此增加歷史回測的可靠性。
5月4日的期貨走勢會怎麼走?讓我們用歷史回測來找尋答案!
首先,我們先來建立盤前的進場條件單:
close(2) < close(3)
ꀦ& high(2) >= high(3)
ꀦ& low(2) >= low(3)
ꀦ& high(2) >= low(3)
ꀦ& low(2) < high(3)
ꀦ& close(2) < open(2)
ꀦ& close(1) < close(2)
ꀦ& high(1) < high(2)
ꀦ& low(1) < low(2)
ꀦ& high(1) >= low(2)
ꀦ& low(1) < high(2)
ꀦ& close(1) < open(1)
ꀦ& close(0) < close(1)
ꀦ& high(0) < high(1)
ꀦ& low(0) < low(1)
ꀦ& high(0) >= low(1)
ꀦ& low(0) < high(1)
ꀦ& close(0) < open(0)
進場價格設定為:"收盤價"。
出場條件設定為:
carryDays == 1
出場價格設定為:"收盤價"。
建立好條件單的程式碼後,我們就開始跑歷史14年來的期貨資料,回測結果共10筆資料,
勝率為80%,平均漲幅為32.8點。最佳情形為+151點,最差情形為-54點。(詳細的分析結
果可以自行複製程式碼即可觀看)
總計10筆資料中,
4筆資料大漲50點以上,
5筆資料小漲及小跌50點以下,
1筆資料大跌50點以上。
結論:由統計資料可以顯示,以3k線判斷5月4日的收盤結果,過去有80%的機率會上漲,
有5/10=50%的機率盤整,另有4/10=40%的機率大漲,1/10=10%的機率大跌。
以上歷史回測結果,無私分享給大家,也請大家別吝嗇給予大推支持喔!
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