[外電] 國民隊的秘密武器

看板Nationals作者ug945 (ug945)時間12年前 (2012/06/15 17:30)推噓7(7推 0噓 1→)

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Washington Nationals Stat Shot: Secret Weapons 國民隊的秘密武器 Federal Baseball http://goo.gl/LMZ6y by Doghouse on Jun 14, 2012 2:30 PM EDT Most long-time followers of Federal Baseball know that I don't much care for the designated hitter. I'm not here to argue the point, since that ends up being like saying the other person is wrong for having green as their favorite color instead of purple. However, it introduces an interesting (and sometimes delightful) dynamic to NL baseball (or "real baseball," as I like to think of it), and that is: pitchers hitting. The stereotype is that pitchers are an automatic out, useful only for advancing a runner with a sac bunt. I've often caught myself applauding a pitcher for striking out on 4 pitches instead of 3. A pitcher's primary value is what he does to prevent the other team's runs, not to create runs for his own team, right? Well, this season has seen enough output from the pitcher's spot in the lineup to have people joking about keeping Strasburg to pinch-hit after he's shut down for the season. Have the Nationals' starters really been doing that well? 長期訂閱Federal Baseball的讀者都知道我不是很喜歡指定打擊這玩意兒。我不是想戰，但這就好比我覺得這像棋盤你覺得像綠豆糕。而投手打擊也替國聯(也可以稱之為我所認為"真實的棒球")創造了一些有趣的動態因子。大眾的刻板印象，投手就是個自殺棒，頂多用來推進跑者。我常會替4球被三振而不是3球死的投手拍手叫好，畢竟投手的責任是不掉分並不是製造分數，對吧? 今年國民投手群在打擊上的表現讓人們開玩笑說小史停機後可以擔任代打。國民投手的打擊真的有那麼好嗎? After the jump, we take a look at the offense out of the pitcher's spot and see how much it might be adding. We also examine the surprising pinch-hitting performance that the Nats have had to date. Are they important parts of the Nats' current success, and could they be the secret weapons that help win a pennant? (Stats through the games of June 13, courtesy FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference) 把資料經過分析後我們發現投手群還有代打的成績卓越，但這些究竟可以對國民的戰績產生多少影響呢?這會是國民的秘密武器嗎? Star-divide First, let's look at the raw hitting stats. Adding together all the pitchers as a composite player, the pitchers are hitting .200/.227/.305 with 2 HRs and 5 2Bs in 122 PA. That's good for a 33 wRC+, which is pretty terrible--for a position player. In other words, they're only providing 1/3 as much offense as an average hitter. But among pitchers, they lead the league. They're first in AVG, OPB, SLG, HRs, 2Bs, hits, and wRC+. The next-highest wRC+ is 3, and every other pitching staff has a negative wRC+! The pitchers are hackers, though: their walk rate of 2.5% is 9th, but their strikeout rate of 31.1% is actually third-best. 首先來看原始打擊數據，國民投手在122打席中繳出.200/.227/.305 有2轟, 5支Double 投手群的wRC+為33也就是約為一個野手的1/3產能，這樣的成績足以在聯盟稱霸了。國民投手群的打擊數據不管是在打擊率、上壘率、長打率、全壘打、二壘安打、打點還有wRC+都是聯盟第一。聯盟次高的wRC+僅有 3，而其他球隊投手群的wRC+都是負數。國民投手群被保送率雖然僅排在第9名但是被三振率31.1%是第三低的。 (譯者按：wRC+簡單講就是wOBA板的OPS+，OPS+ 100 是聯盟平均的OPS而wRC+ 亦然。 wOBA則可以說是經過迴歸分析計算過的OBP，不同種類的上壘不等值) Well, fine, the Nats pitchers have put together some fun highlight clips of Stras and Zim going yard and Gio hitting a booming double to the gap. Has it really been worth anything? Surprisingly, it has! The pitchers have generated a total of 1.0 wins above replacement (WAR) so far with their hitting. The other teams in the NL haven't been total losses in the pitcher spot (in spite of their pathetic wRCs), and the NL average pitching staff has 0.45 WAR offensively. That means that the Nats have added about half a win relative to the league with pitcher hitting. If they keep up that pace over the entire season, that's easily a full win to 1.5 wins--potentially the difference between a wild card spot or not, or (dare I say it?) between a pennant and a WC spot. Specifically, the Braves are currently getting 0.6 WAR from their pitchers' hitting; over the rest of the season, the Nats would gain a full win on them at that rate. 國民投手群打擊本季常常有驚人表現而登上高光，像是小史首轟，Jordan幹炮或是Gio打出深遠的2B，但這真的對球隊有價值嗎?很令人驚喜的，真的有!! 國民在投手打擊的WAR的產值為1.0而聯盟平均是0.45，也就是說國民可以因為投手打擊比較好而多贏半場比賽。如果繼續保持這樣的成績，整個球季國民可以比別人可以多贏1.5場這可能意味著外卡資格和非外卡資格的差距，或是(科科)王座和外卡的差距。斧頭幫投手群打擊的WAR是0.6，如保持這樣的成績到季末，國民可以多贏整整1場。 Interestingly enough, the Nats have managed to generate all this offensive value in the 2nd-fewest pitcher PA in the leauge. They have only 122 compared to the NL average of 135. If you look at the offensive runs above replacement (RAR) per 100 PA, the pitching staff generates 7.62, more than twice as much as the league average of 3.19. Of course, that's still not as much as having a proper position player hitting, which brings us to a related issue: why do the pitchers have so few PA? 有趣的是，國民創造出這樣的產值但他們投手群的打席數卻是聯盟第二少的。本季僅有122個打席國聯平均是135。如果以每100打席的RAR來看的話，國民的產值為7.62是聯盟平均3.19的兩倍有餘(譯按：RAR，runs above replacement 比一般可替代的球員多為球隊貢獻幾分)，當然這還是遠比不上一般野手的產值，但為什麼投手群的打席那麼少? Part of this is due to the lackluster Nats offense in the early season, since the team's total of 2,318 PA to date trails the NL average of 2,359. Another part is that the starters have thrown slightly fewer innings than league average (370 vs 374), giving them fewer chances to hit. Taken together, those only account for about 1/3 of the gap relative to league average. As for the rest? Well, we know Davey loves him some double switches. He's managed to find about 9 extra pinch-hit PA so far this season relative to how many PA the starters "should" have had based on playing time and times through the order (it's possible the early-season tendancy toward late-game offense skews this a bit, but I can't figure out a quick way to account for that). 一部分原因就是打線疲軟的表現，球隊總打席數2318比國聯平均2359要少。另一個原因則是國民的先發投手投的局數比較短，聯盟平均374局，國民的先發們總共才撐了370局，當然影響到了打席的次數。但這些加加起來也不過佔了差距的1/3，那剩下的打席跑哪去了?我們知道DJ很愛double switches。他多換了原本是先發該打得9個打席(這可能是球季初的一種趨勢，我還沒能找到快速方法去計算他)。 So, what has DJ managed to do with the PH chances? Ready-done team batting splits for PH appearances aren't easy to find, but the Nats have 89 PH PA to date (league average is 95) and a cumulative PH batting line of .304/.443/.522 with 2 HR, 7 2B and 1 3B. That's a .393 wOBA, which is hair more than what Adam Dunn is putting up this year! I can't get a park-adjusted figure, but I would guess that's about a 145-150 wRC+. League-average PH wOBA is .321, so the average NL team has put up 0.66 runs above an average hitter from its PH chances. The Nats, however, have put up 6.19 more runs out of the PH spot than a league-average hitter, or 5.5 more runs than average NL PHing. Davey has picked up more that half a win over league average from pinch hitters! He is teh jeenyus! Looking at the Braves, their PH has a .203 wOBA in 93 PA so far, which is 6.7 runs below league average. That would give the Nats an advantage of more than 3 games over a whole season! 所以DJ到底在換代打上有多MAGIC?球隊之間的代打數據比較難找，但是國民有89個代打打席(聯盟平均95)，打擊三圍是.304/.443/.522 有2轟7支二壘打1支三壘打。 wOBA是.393，跟今年的蛋哥差不多!!我沒辦法做球場校正，但我猜wRC+約為145~150 聯盟平均的代打wOBA為.321，所以聯盟平均的代打者可以製造0.66分。而國民則可以製造6.19分比聯盟平均多了5.5分。DJ光在換代打上就可以多拿半場勝利，真是MAGIC~ 看看斧頭幫他們的代打在93打席中wOBA為.203會比聯盟平均還少拿6.7分。整季下來，國民可能會因此在三場比賽中撈到很多好處!! Of course, typical disclaimers have to apply, here. We're looking at about 100 PA for both the pitchers and the PHers, and while injuries have taken away Mark DeRosa, they've also sidelined Chad Tracy. Strasburg will get shut down at some point, and Chien-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler have been notable laggards on pitcher offense. 當然話不能說得太早，這不過才100個投手或代打的打席。接下來的比賽板凳上少了 DeRosa也少了Tracy，小史總有一天會停機，而王和Det兩個比較不擅長打擊的投手會開始稀釋這些數據。 Bottom Line The Nats have won an extra half of a game relative to the NL so far this season because of pitcher hitting, and another half of a game from good pinch hitting. If those trends continue (and I can't claim they will), the Nats could pick up an extra 2-3 wins over the course of the season compared to league average. And in what promises to be a tight division, that could be as many as a 5-game edge over likely late-season rival Atlanta. 國民現在因為投手打擊而多贏半場比賽，而因為代打發揮又多贏半場。如果這狀況維持下去(這我不能保證:D)，國民整個球季會多贏2~3場。去年的斧頭幫告訴我們，別小看這2~3勝帶來的影響。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.135.53.145

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