[討論] 談田中與洋基的困境
--不是結果論斷,也非格空抓藥--
如果希望洋基早日重回強隊之林,或許Tanaka連爆三場不是什麼壞事,因為「提前
進廠大修重生」,長期來看,可能對他與球隊最有利。
或許提到了敏感的「開刀」兩字,引發了部分球迷的不快,如果只是感受,那實在
很抱歉。但這本來就是很痛苦的抉擇,我也試著談談為什麼這樣講,這個看法有無基礎
,相信大家能提出更好的看法。我和多數球迷一樣沒有醫學專業,也不敢說自己有多懂
棒球,所以不足之處歡迎打臉回辯~
這幾年洋基隊戰力衰退卻沒走上徹底重建,而選擇「一邊維持競爭、一邊補強重建」
。「維持競爭力」作得不錯,靠著教練團在牛棚防守交出好成績,現金人持續神來之筆,
還能維持「離季後賽差距不遠」。「重建」方面也很努力,只是挫折連連,幾位主力合約
到了最後幾年,卡著預算也限縮了補強籌碼,田中算很成功的補強了,可去年投了半季就
肘韌帶撕裂傷,一般情況下,投手受這種傷開TJ是早晚的事。外國評論者喜歡用tiking
timebomb來比喻。
接下來談談「醫師的診斷」,憑什麼一堆醫師都說不必手術了,洋基隊目前也堅持
「田中身體健康」。卻還有人要提「田中該認真考慮提前進廠大修」。這些以治療運動
傷害為專長的醫師,是從病理專業加上臨床經驗,評估運動員在激烈的運動的需求下,
是否需要手術。洋基尋求多名醫師的診斷意見,除了慎重與重視,也代表如果要開刀,
對球隊是件「茲事體大的事」,當然不希望他開刀,卻也不敢違背專業。問三個醫師的
意見,目的是「希望醫師確定他生理狀態還能不能投球,如果還行,還是得試試看他有
多少能耐」,這是第一個問題點,醫師只能診斷他的手暫時還能不能丟球,沒辦法保證
他恢復到什麼程度。
如果去年田中傷勢太過嚴重,醫師不致於昧著良心請他復健,但術後最壞的情況是
,投手復健回不到原來水準就此報廢,這個投資可能就報銷了。所以開刀的代價不只是
「一年多的復健」而已。結果,田中的情況不是「非得手術」,球團和他就必須面對更
複雜的抉擇,並等待不確定的結果。韌帶撕裂如果不開刀不會自己痊癒,只可能減少並
延緩傷勢再度惡化到必須開刀。
重點來了:田中不僅是職業運動員,還是球團砸重金投資的「即戰力王牌投手」,
如果今天田中是培養中的明日之星,還在小聯盟磨個一兩年,洋基去年應該讓他復健完
,測試幾場就可以決定要不要大修。
我並沒有否定醫師專業,也不認為洋基會硬操一個嚴重手傷的投手。正因田中撕裂
傷沒有太嚴重,所以球隊選擇先復健修養,那個時間點做這樣的選擇還算正確。可是在
去年季賽末期兩場比賽,加上今年春訓前的這段時間,球團應該早就知道「田中已無法
像以前的水準那樣投球」,才會採用減輕春訓壓力和轉換投球型態(改用二縫不強催球
速)的方式,讓田中隨著球季賽事慢慢熱機,甚至期待讓手臂力量隨著賽事強化,然而
田中不是在小聯盟磨練中,而是要在大聯盟繳出王牌成績的,洋基球團這種作法無疑是
在賭博。
洋基隊當然希望開幕戰只意謂著輸了一場球,而田中就像任何偉大投手一樣,只是
偶然表現失常,目前當然沒人知道,但看看外媒報導和專欄作家的分析:
MLB賽後報導 http://ppt.cc/EJ-O
Joel Sherman http://ppt.cc/QqU4
John Harper http://ppt.cc/-AR4
John Harper http://ppt.cc/sRmN
MLB官網報導指出,面對賽前對田中投球策略的質疑,田中說他「不會從此不投四縫,
反而多了二縫可以更靈活地搭配使用」
"It's not like I'm not going to throw the four-seamer anymore. I use both
pitches effectively in situations where I feel the need to throw each pitch."
捕手MaCann說他與田中「賽事中慢慢增加變化球量」,「這是因應Jays打者的策略」,
Sherman拿去年的比賽資料打臉,認為他在鬼扯。
Tanaka and Brian McCann said the righty adjusted as the game went along
to go to more off-speed stuff. But that was just blather.
McCann then offered that the adjustment was to how the Blue Jays hit
田中在賽後訪問承認,他覺得對方鎖定他的直球打,所以一直避著不敢投。
Tanaka said he was shying away from throwing four-seamers "because they were
being hit,"
Reyes提到,春訓就聽說田中直球的球速和配球比例都降,對戰也證實了,
所以打者大多會放掉他的變化球。
Toronto hitters cited that word was out from spring training that Tanaka was
not throwing as hard and their first-hand view corroborated that.
“He throws 88, 89 [mph],” Jose Reyes said. “Last year, he was throwing 93,
94. This year he throws more off-speed pitches. Last year he threw more
fastballs. So as a hitter, if we know that, we’re going to sit on those
pitches most of the time.”
John Harper認為,即便像洋基口徑一致的說法「田中健康沒問題」,如果田中在心理
層面因為懼傷對投球一樣會有影響。只要繳不出洋基急切需要的Ace成績,他的肘傷病理
就沒有什麼好談的。
whatever the condition of Tanaka’s elbow, if it’s affecting him mentally
and thereby preventing him from pitching with the dominance the Yankees
desperately need from him, nothing else really matters.
另外,洋基內情人士透露,球隊在開幕賽後在確認「是不是有翻譯上的漏失,讓他們對
田中健康狀況的掌握不夠精確」,若此為真,顯現球隊也沒太大的把握。
Yankee people say that internal conversations on Tuesday left them with the
impression that something was lost in translation that day.
總之,不管你是否相信球團的官方說法還有先前的醫師診斷,往後的觀察重點應該不只
是田中還能不能贏球,而是他的投球內容能不能像個先發王牌。
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NY-Yankees/M.1428517060.A.5B0.html
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