Re: [閒聊] Bill James 2010年預測
Bill James 2009年的水晶球驗證
Jorge Posada, C
Projection: .277-.378-.455, 65 R, 29 2B, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 104-70 K/BB
season2009: .285 .363 .522 55 25 22 81 101-48
(長打少估了 選球眼則是高估)
Robinson Cano, 2B
Projection: .295-.333-.461, 81 R, 42 2B, 17 HR, 86 RBI, 72-31 K/BB
season2009: .320 .352 .520 103 48 25 85 63-30
(除了打率和長打 其實也差不多了)
Derek Jeter, SS
Projection: .307-.377-.432, 102 R, 32 2B, 14 HR, 73 RBI, 101-59 K/BB
season2009: .334 .406 .465 107 27 18 66 90-72
(發威的一年 所以整個偏啦)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Projection: .293-.396-.565, 115 R, 29 2B, 42 HR, 120 RBI, 134-84 K/BB
season2009: .286 .402 .532 78 17 30 100 97-80
不過如果打158場比賽的話.... 99 22 38 127 124-102 很近了
(由於猜不透A-rod屁屁會受傷 所以這預測是做壞了)
Nick Swisher, 1B
Projection: .240-.359-.451, 78 R, 27 2B, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 122-80 K/BB,
season2009: .249 .371 .498 84 35 29 82 126-97
(最後1B的位子迎來了鐵爺 不過若不是Swisher今年拉高一級 其實也沒偏太多)
Johnny Damon, LF
Projection: .281-.355-.419, 96 R, 29 2B, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 82-62 K/BB
season2009: .282 .365 .489 107 36 24 82 98-71
(把少掉的HR和它該有的RBI、SLG補上 這預測就蠻準了)
Hideki Matsui, DH
Projection: .288-.370-.457, 72 R, 26 2B, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 70-58 K/BB
season2009: .274 .367 .509 62 21 28 90 75-64
(同樣 HR的產量少估 以致於連帶的成績也少估)
Xavier Nady, RF
Projection: .284-.337-.473, 71 R, 32 2B, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 108-36 K/BB
season2009: .286 .310 .429 以下就......
(乃弟也炸了)
由此可見 洋基多人今天在長打上多有所提升
以致於Bill估的長打率多半比實際的表現還少 (場地威能?)
確準與否 端看各位解讀
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12/28 13:45,
5年前
, 11F
12/28 13:45, 11F
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