[新聞] Rodriguez Is Worth a Few More Wins, but Not $30 Million

看板NY-Yankees作者leddy (耿秋)時間17年前 (2007/09/17 00:21)推噓10(10推 0噓 2→)

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Keeping Score Rodriguez Is Worth a Few More Wins, but Not $30 Million www.nytimes.com By DAN ROSENHECK Published: September 16, 2007 重點: A-Rod可以多得好幾場勝利, 但價值恐怕沒有3千萬這麼多 1. 從A-Rod在2000年與德州游擊兵隊簽下10年2億5千2百萬的合約後, 他就變成了有天份的棒球選手之中最大贏家的一個象徵。全部的合約超過史上任何合約的兩倍, 古老的智慧告訴我們A-Rod簽下的這份合約簡直就跟用搶的差不多。 2. 但七年後, A-Rod的老闆對簽下這麼棒的合約感到心花怒放。2004年球季前洋基隊說服游擊兵隊同意繼續負擔A-Rod薪水的1/3後, 決定讓A-Rod來到了洋基隊, 之後A-Rod 贏到了第一座MVP的獎項, 而且似乎能夠在今年贏得第二座這個頭銜。的確, 2007年球季在剩下15場賽事時, A-Rod打出了0.316的打擊率, 52支全壘打, 141分打點及84個保送, 已經幾乎確定是大聯盟史上三壘手打出的最佳紀錄。只有Mike Schmidt在1981年球季因罷工縮短球季的那年, 打出了接近A-Rod在三壘手這個守備位置的水準。 3. 現在很難去質疑A-Rod這份合約是不合理的, 即使粗略地計算他的年薪是2千7百萬元已　經比年薪第二高的球員Manny Ramirez多出了35%。但是在他今年最佳表現的球季之後, 面對的是從2000年以來球員市場上最火紅的一年, A-Rod預期將會行使合約中的跳脫條款變成一位自由球員。A-Rod的經紀人$cott Bora$是棒球交易場上最有名的喊價專家, 他已經讓A-Rod注意到他具有一年3千萬的身價。洋基的總經理Brian Cashman則說, 假如A-Rod行使跳脫條款的話, 洋基將不會參予A-Rod的競價。是否有其他的球隊付得起 Bora$喊出的價錢並在競價中取得領先呢? 4. A-Rod以後將很難再次出現2007年球季這樣的成績, 但即有一定程度的退步A-Rod的表現仍然會是大聯盟中屬一屬二的成績。Baseball Prospectus的Nate Silver預測A-Rod明年大體上以擔任三壘手而言, 他的成績會是打擊率0.302, 上壘率0.404, 長打率0.601 (因為洋基球場比較不利於右打者, 所以若A-Rod離開洋基隊他的成績還會稍微再好一點)。 5. 相對而言, 打得相當普通的資深三壘手像巨人隊的Pedro Feliz在昨晚的比賽之前, 他的成績是0.249的打擊率, 0.290的上壘率及0.414的長打率。假如巨人隊放掉Feliz簽下A-Rod, 巨人隊可以預期的是可以比Feliz當三壘手時多贏八場比賽。 6. 如果A-Rod可以移回他原始的守備位置游擊手, 他甚至會更有價值。當他在水手隊和游擊兵隊時, 他在游擊的位置是超出平均水準的游擊手, 但當他來到洋基時為了尊重洋基隊長Derek Jeter所以移防到三壘手。A-Rod在離開游擊兵隊後體形變得比較粗壯, 當然是沒法像以前守得這麼好。但是回到游擊區, 他打擊的進攻價值可以更大。以藍鳥隊為例, 藍鳥隊剛與John McDonald簽下了兩年的延長合約, McDonald在週五比賽前打出糟糕的0.267的打擊, 0.321的長打率, 而且藍鳥隊的Rogers Center球場是對打者較為有利的球場。McDonald在守備上相當優於A-Rod的游擊手, 但不重要, 假如藍鳥隊付得起錢簽下A-Rod來取代McDonald, 他們2008年的球季可能多贏九場比賽。多贏九場比賽將大約是2008年A-Rod可以給新老闆最大的貢獻。但是他是32歲, 即使他可能可以維持他的速度而且相當的耐超, 但是這年紀終究到了逐漸退化的時候。 7. Silver在一份e-mail的訊息中, 寫下A-Rod到了2009年球季可能掉到多贏八場的價值, 然後變成減掉三場, 2010年和2011年大概值多贏五場, 2012年則可以多贏四場。他可以適合的球隊是白襪隊, 在遊擊區正好有一位表現很差的打者Juan Uribe,　其他的防守位置則有一些超越平均水準的核心打線, 同時位在一個競爭火熱的美聯中區。 8. 但是A-rod值不值得一年3千萬的身價呢? 他的身價似乎不太接近這個數字。Silver寫下進入季後賽的球隊預計贏得的比賽是83至94之間, 每多一場平均可以多得2百6拾萬的收益。假如棒球這個產業持續穩定地成長, 預計每年將成長8%。如此, 假如A-Rod 在一個像白襪隊這樣的球隊打球。A-Rod在2008手預計可以產生2千5百萬的收益, 2009年是2千4百萬, 2010和2011年是1千7百萬, 2012年為1千6百萬, 總值不超過5年 1億元的價值。他希望簽下比1億元還多出50%的合約, 而且這五年之間或許還有一到兩年可能剛好就在他棒球生涯的晚期。 9. 因為很少有自由球員真正產生足夠的收益來證實合約具有相同的價值, 所以對A-Rod 而言提3千萬的年薪就一點也不奇怪了, 就像去年季後太空人給了Carlos Lee一年 1千7百萬的年薪。但在棒球場上可以賺錢的實際方法是, 開發年輕的球員在他們還沒有資格成為自由球員時，從這些年輕球員的產出獲取投資的報酬率。就跟很多的競標案一樣, 對A-Rod這場賭局最後真正的贏家反而是那些束手旁觀的球隊。 From the moment Alex Rodriguez signed his 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers in 2000, he became the emblem for baseball’s talent sweepstakes run amok. The total package was worth more than twice as much as any deal that had preceded it, and the conventional wisdom was that Rodriguez had made out like a bandit. But seven years later, it is Rodriguez’s employer that is laughing all the way to the bank. Since the Yankees acquired him before the 2004 season — after persuading the Rangers to continue paying a third of his salary — he has won one Most Valuable Player award and seems a lock to win another. Indeed, Rodriguez’s 2007 season — he was hitting .316 with 52 home runs, 141 runs batted in and 84 walks with 15 games to play — is almost certainly the greatest year ever by a major league third baseman. Only Mike Schmidt in the strike-shortened 1981 season comes close to matching Rodriguez’s level of performance at the position. It’s hard to argue that Rodriguez is getting a raw deal, as his $27 million annual salary over the next three years is 35 percent higher than that of Manny Ramirez, the game’s second-highest-paid player. But coming off his best season, and facing the hottest market for players since 2000, Rodriguez is expected to exercise an opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent. His agent, Scott Boras, is baseball’s premier auctioneer, and he has made clear that it will take $30 million a season to get Rodriguez’s attention. Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ general manager, has said the team will not bid on Rodriguez if he opts out. Can any other team meet Boras’s asking price and come out ahead on the deal? Rodriguez’s 2007 season will be hard to repeat, but even a sizable drop-off would leave him among baseball’s elite. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus projected him to hit .303 with a .404 on-base percentage and a .601 slugging percentage next year, while playing a roughly average third base. (Those numbers would be slightly higher if he left Yankee Stadium, which is quite unfriendly to right-handed sluggers.) By contrast, a mediocre veteran third baseman like San Francisco’s Pedro Feliz was hitting .249 with a .290 on-base percentage and .414 slugging percentage entering last night’s game. If the Giants were to let Feliz go and sign Rodriguez, they could probably expect to win about eight more games next season than they would if they stuck with Feliz. Rodriguez may be even more valuable if he can move back to his original position, shortstop. He was an above-average fielder at the position with the Mariners and the Rangers, but was shifted to third by the Yankees out of deference to Derek Jeter, the team captain. Rodriguez has bulked up since his Texas days and would certainly not play shortstop as well as he used to. But the value of his offense would be magnified there. The Blue Jays, for example, just signed a two-year extension with John McDonald, who compiled a putrid .267 on-base percentage and .321 slugging percentage through Friday, even though he benefits from playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Center. McDonald is a far superior fielder to Rodriguez, but nonetheless, if Toronto had shelled out for Rodriguez instead, their 2008 record would probably be about nine games better. Nine victories is thus about the maximum contribution Rodriguez could make to a new employer in 2008. But he is 32, and although he is likely to age well — he has retained his speed and is remarkably durable — a decline over time is inevitable. Silver, in an e-mail message, wrote that Rodriguez would probably drop off to an eight-win value in 2009, then have to move back to third, where he would be worth about five wins in 2010 and 2011 and four in 2012. He may be a good fit for a team like the White Sox, who field the banjo hitter Juan Uribe at shortstop, have a core of above-average players in place and play in a hotly contested division. But is Rodriguez worth $30 million a year? Not close. Silver wrote that teams on the playoff bubble — those expecting to win 83 to 94 games — collect an additional $2.6 million in revenue for every extra game they win, on average. If the industry continues to grow at a healthy rate, those figures should increase by 8 percent a year. Thus, if he played for a team like the White Sox, Rodriguez could be expected to generate $25 million of revenue in 2008, $24 million in 2009, $17 million in 2010 and 2011, and $16 million in 2012, for a total of a little less than $100 million over five years. He is hoping to sign for about 50 percent more, and perhaps with another year or two tacked on once he is well into his twilight years. Few free agents actually produce enough revenue to justify their contracts, and $30 million annually for Rodriguez would not be as outlandish as, say, the $17 million a season that the Astros gave to Carlos Lee last off-season. But the real way to make money in baseball is by developing young players and reaping the rewards of their production before they hit free agency. As with many auctions, the real winners of the A-Rod sweepstakes will be the teams that stay on the sideline. E-mail: keepingscore@nytimes.com -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.132.198.21

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※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 220.132.198.21 (09/17 00:27)

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JennyGarner

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