[情報] iPhone 5c並非失敗產品只因世人誤解消失

看板MobileComm作者notmuchmoney時間10年前 (2013/10/24 01:57)推噓17(17推 0噓 25→)

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Why the iPhone 5c ISN'T failing iPhone 5c並非失敗產品只因世人誤解蘋果 In the month since Apple released its new iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c phones, the market has been deluged with the sentiment that the iPhone 5c "is a failure." Apple bears are rallying around reports that Apple has cut orders for the iPhone 5c, although they are not sure just how much Apple is cutting production. 自蘋果iPhone新一代iPhone 5s和5c發佈以來﹐市場到處充斥著5c是一款失敗的產品的說法。蘋果空頭集中報道該公司已為此減少5c產量﹐儘管並不確定產量具體減少多少。 All of these rumors about the iPhone 5c being a failure are flawed for one simple reason: They misunderstand the purpose of the 5c. Many observers -- including me -- expected Apple to release a "cheap" iPhone this year. When Apple released the iPhone 5c alongside the high-end iPhone 5s, a large contingent of Apple-watchers assumed that it was the rumored "cheaper" iPhone. 實際上﹐所有認為iPhone 5c是一款失敗的產品的想法是存在缺陷的, 原因很簡單﹐這些人誤解了蘋果推出5c的目的。在新品發佈前﹐市場分析人士普遍預期蘋果會推出一款廉價iPhone。因此﹐當蘋果連同其高端產品5s一同發佈5c時﹐大部分分析師認為這便是傳說中的廉價iPhone。 But the iPhone 5c is not a cheaper iPhone; it fits directly into the same pricing scheme Apple has used for years. It is not designed to gain market share in developing countries. It is not meant to target users who don't receive smartphone subsidies. 然而事實並非如此﹐iPhone 5c顯然不是廉價產品﹐而是遵循蘋果已經延續多年的定價策略﹐並非為拓展發展中國家市場佔有率而設計﹐並且也不意味著其目標用戶群為注重空機價﹐而不綁約獲得手機補貼的一群。 Instead, the iPhone 5c's primary purpose is to boost Apple's margins by cutting production costs and minimizing cannibalization of the highly profitable iPhone 5s. So far, investors have every reason to believe that the iPhone 5c is succeeding in that task. 相反﹐蘋果推出iPhone 5c的主要目的是通過降低生產成本﹐並將其高階產品iPhone 5s品牌替換影響減少到最小﹐從而提高蘋果公司利潤率。到目前為止﹐投資者有充分的理由相信iPhone 5c已成功做到這一點。 Margin quandary 盈利困境 While the financial press has extensively covered the slowdown in Apple's growth this year, the issue that has really spooked investors has been margin contraction. Apple churns out so much cash that the stock is a no-brainer even with no growth. The biggest risk for Apple investors is not slowing growth, but a potential collapse of the company's legendary margins. 雖然金融媒體已廣泛報道蘋果公司今年成長放緩﹐其利潤率下降問題仍讓投資者感到震驚。但蘋果盈利巨大以至於即便無增長﹐其股票依然值得投資。對於蘋果投資者﹐最大的風險並不在於成長放緩﹐而且其一貫高到不可思議的利潤率可能下降的問題。 Margin erosion was a key factor driving Apple stock's poor performance in the past year. Apple's gross margin has fallen year-over-year for three consecutive quarters, and will almost certainly fall again when Apple reports September quarter results next week. Sometimes the declines have been quite substantial; in the March quarter, gross margin dropped by 990 basis points compared to the same quarter in 2012. 在過去一年裡﹐蘋果公司的股票之所以表現不佳便在於其利潤率下降。該公司的毛利率已連續三個季度比去年同期下滑﹐下周即將發佈的9月份截止的季度業績報告其毛利率很可能再次下滑。有時下降幅度還很大﹐ 在截至今年3月份的季度﹐其毛利率與2012年同期相比下降了990個基本點。(按: 9.9%) One cause of this margin erosion has been cannibalization of the full-size iPad by the lower-margin iPad Mini. However, declining profitability within the iPhone product line has been just as important. The iPhone 5 was very difficult to manufacture, driving up production costs compared to the iPhone 4S. Meanwhile, Apple experienced a mix-shift toward older, cheaper iPhones that also pressured product margins. 導致該公司利潤率下滑的一個原因便是全尺寸iPad替代產品iPad Mini 利潤率較低。此外﹐iPhone產品陣容盈利能力下滑同樣不可忽視﹐與iPhone 4s 相比﹐iPhone 5更困難生產, 生產成本更高。與此同時﹐較便宜的舊版iPhone 銷售比例越佔越大也對利潤率產生壓力。 iPhone 5c to the rescue! iPhone 5c應運而生 This may be the true "origin" of the iPhone 5c. The idea that it is a cheaper phone designed to appeal to developing-world customers is fairly ridiculous, considering that it's not even the cheapest iPhone on the market! 也許這就是蘋果推出iPhone 5c的真正“真相”。這款手機實際定價甚至比 iPhone 4s還高﹐認為c代表廉價﹐是蘋果為了吸引發展中國家用戶的想法相當荒謬。 Instead, the iPhone 5c is simply a new version of the iPhone 5 that is cheaper to produce. IHS iSuppli has pinned the manufacturing cost of the high-end iPhone 5s at $199, just above the $197 cost of the iPhone 5 from last year. By contrast, the 16 GB version of the iPhone 5c costs just $173 to build, according to IHS estimates. 相反的﹐iPhone 5c祗是生產成本相對便宜的iPhone 5新版本。據美市場調研機構IHS iSuppli推測﹐ iPhone高階產品5s製造成本為199美元﹐略高於去年推出的iPhone 5﹐後者製造成本為197美元。而16GB版本的5c則僅僅為173美元。 Since the iPhone 5c is cheaper to build than the iPhone 5, Apple is making more money right now than it would have if the company had stuck with its old strategy of pricing last year's product (i.e. the iPhone 5) at $99 with a 2-year contract or $549 unsubsidized. The cost savings may be even greater than the IHS figures imply. The iPhone 5 was hard to manufacture, leading to high failure rates, which are not reflected in the IHS estimates. The iPhone 5c's plastic casing makes it much easier to build, avoiding this problem. 既然5c製造成本比5還便宜﹐那麼﹐在不改變銷售策略的情況下﹐不論是兩年合約價99美元還是裸機售價549美元﹐蘋果利潤都會提高。此外﹐HIS並未統計iPhone 5不良率較高的影響﹐因此﹐5c實際減少成本可能還高于HIS數據而5c塑料外殼生產相對簡單﹐避免了良率問題。 Low sales of the iPhone 5c are not necessarily a bad thing, either. (I should also point out that according to the most drastic rumors, Apple has cut 5c production from 300,000 units per day to 150,000 units per day, or nearly 55 million per year, which is hardly disastrous.) If the 5c sells poorly because of a mix shift back toward Apple's priciest phones, that would be great for the company. After all, the 5s is Apple's most profitable product! 其實﹐iPhone 5c銷量不佳也未必是件壞事。據最近的謠傳﹐蘋果已將5c日產量從30萬臺縮減至15萬臺﹐年產量接近5500萬, 依然多的驚人。假如5c的銷量因消費者轉向蘋果高階產品5s而減少﹐這對於蘋果公司來講顯然利大於弊。畢竟5s才是蘋果最賺錢的產品。 Foolish bottom line 總結 As soon as Apple revealed pricing for the new iPhone 5c, it should have been clear that Apple was not planning to use it to gain market share abroad. But many people had expected a "cheap" iPhone in the months prior to Apple's launch event. As a result, a large contingent of the media has become fixated on the comparatively low sales of the iPhone 5c, as if market share were the primary yardstick of success. 自蘋果公佈5c定價之後﹐顯然這家企業並沒有計劃用此產品來拓展海外市場佔有率。但在iPhone新品發佈之前的數月﹐市場已普遍期待蘋果推出一款廉價產品。因此﹐5c上市後的銷量成為一大批媒體關注的重點﹐就好像市場份額成了成功與否的首要標準。 But the point of introducing two new iPhones was not to improve Apple's market share in developing markets. Instead Apple appears to be using the older iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S handsets -- and even used phones it is collecting through trade-in programs -- to bring in new lower-income customers. 但重點是﹐蘋果推出這兩款產品並不是為了提高iPhone在發展中國家的市場佔有率。相反﹐這家企業正通過舊版的iPhone 4和iPhone 4s以及用折價換新機計劃收集來的iPhone拓展市場﹐開發新的低收入客戶。 Instead, the iPhone 5c was introduced in order to reduce Apple's production costs. Apple has already stated that gross margin will be near the high end of its guidance range for the September quarter. This suggests that the iPhone 5c is fulfilling its main purpose. If Apple forecasts margin improvement for the current quarter, that would be even stronger evidence that the iPhone 5c has succeeded. 實際上﹐iPhone 5c就是為了降低生產成本而存在﹐並且從蘋果已經聲明其至 9月份截止的季毛利率﹐將會接近之前發布的預測區間上限﹐表明5c正在完成其主要目的。假如蘋果接下來財報, 預期以後毛利率將會提高﹐則是為iPhone 5c 的成功提供更強有力的證明。本文作者亞當‧萊文溫伯格（Adam Levine-Weinberg）﹐美知名投資網站The Motley Fool新晉自由撰稿人。 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/10/22/iphone-5c-not-failing/3150327/ http://big5.gmw.cn/g2b/IT.gmw.cn/2013-10/23/content_9256921.htm 還在糾結iPhone 5c銷售量嗎也許該換個想法了 -- Sent from my Android -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)

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