Re: [問題] 核武的"遊戲規則"?
現在俄羅斯有本錢和美國玩恐怖平衡
但俄羅斯的核力量也在迅速衰退中,老飛彈和載具退役太快,新的又沒開始生產
中國還沒有和美國玩恐怖平衡的能力
中國的潛艇二次核打擊力量還在測試中,另外就是機動飛彈都是單彈頭
也缺乏飛彈預警能力
除非是中國先打美國,不然美國先行攻擊的話,
中國的飛彈的力量可能第一波就被消滅90% (一共也沒幾顆)
大概5到10年左右,中國可能會有初步的潛艇二次核打擊能力
機動載具也會裝備MIRV
預警能力也會有改變
不過到時候可能美國的NMD又進步了
※ 引述《ianlin45 (Ian)》之銘言:
: 那美國聲明, 假設中國用東風21攻擊航母,
: 它會採取核報復, 這樣算違反遊戲規則嗎?
: 或者
: 如果中國用核武攻擊美軍艦隊, 這樣算違反遊戲規則嗎?
: 個人認為, 遊戲規則只是恐怖平衡下的產物
: 如果美國可以說你OOXX我就核平你
: 中國也說你XOXO我也會核平你
: 這樣核平來核平去的, 一直把那條線往前方推
: 說到底雙方只是在比狠比殘忍而已
: 這樣真的打得起來嗎?
: 即使美國傳統武力有壓倒性的優勢,
: 它真的有本錢對中國或俄羅斯開戰嗎?
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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