Re: [外電] Hollinger's Team Forecast: Miami Heat

看板MiamiHeat作者kelvinchang (heartnsoul)時間15年前 (2008/10/05 00:58)推噓10(10推 0噓 0→)

留言10則, 10人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

簡單翻~ 輕鬆看XD ※ 引述《zenwu (橘子)》之銘言： : 2007-08 Recap : There have been worse teams than the 2007-08 Miami Heat, but I don't think : any of them had three likely Hall of Famers in the lineup and were two years : removed from a championship. Miami's crash to a 15-67 disaster was notable : mostly for the sheer speed of it: Even a year earlier the Heat were a playoff : team, but faster than you can say "AIG" they were in total collapse, getting : hammered every night. 去年回顧沒有誰能比去年的熱火更能寫個~慘~字~ 本來是有三個準名人堂的先發, 又拿了冠軍, 至少前年也都還是季後賽球隊阿~ 但~ 沒想到兩年之後會有這麼慘烈的衰敗, 比雷曼兄弟還慘, 每晚都被宰個痛快. : The Hall of Famers were a big reason. Dwyane Wade came back from offseason knee : and shoulder surgery, but it was clear from the get-go that he wasn't operating : at full strength. He spent most of his time on defense gambling for steals and : avoiding contact, while offensively he seemed notably less explosive than a : year earlier. Wade's final PER of 21.63 was a far cry from his league-leading : 29.04 of a year earlier, and as he again checked out at midseason, there have : to be serious concerns about his durability going forward. 那些名人堂的人瑞老邁是原因之一, 典韋的手術也是一大問題. 顯然他不在最佳狀態, 不斷的賭博式抄截, 不停的閃避身體對抗. 最終平均21.6的得分, 跟前一年29.04的水準當然不能相提並論, 如今他能不能從傷勢中完全復原穩定向前, 是大家都關心的. : Alonzo Mourning, for his part, went out early in the season with a torn : patella tendon that could prove to be career-ending; if he comes back, it will : be at midseason at the earliest. 據說晨星最快季中可以回來. : At least those two were trying. Shaquille O'Neal blatantly loafed through the : early part of the schedule, especially at the defensive end, while the Heat : looked on in horror at the three years and $60 million remaining on his : contract. So lame was his effort that Miami defended far better after he was : gone, improving from 25th to 20th in defensive efficiency after the All-Star : break even though Wade sat out and they were playing mostly D-Leaguers. 俠客出局之後, 恐怖的三年合約終告停止. 沒了俠客之後, 熱火的防守數據從聯盟第25名爬到20名, 雖然大部分時間他們打得活像是支發展聯盟的球隊. : Those weren't the only two problems, though. Miami mortgaged its future to win : the title in 2006, and the bill came due last season. Older players like : Jason Williams and Mourning broke down, while veteran Band-Aids such as : Ricky Davis, Mark Blount and (gasp) Penny Hardaway couldn't stop the bleeding. : Without any young talent in the pipeline, the Heat had nowhere to turn and were : forced to dole out heavy minutes to replacement-level talents like Chris Quinn : and Earl Barron. 當然問題不只上面那些啦, 搞了06年的冠軍是爽爽, 代價就是去年的衰樣 - 老球皮像JW跟晨星都爆了-中生代像RD, 射手布, 還有...(唉)Penny, 都止不住球隊大失血~~~~ 其他人擠不出一點天份來, 只好讓那些替補咖(如Quinn/Barron)硬撐. : The result was about as un-Riley a Pat Riley team as you'll see. The Heat were : 25th in defensive efficiency and continually botched the types of little things : you'd never see them screw up before, especially late in games. More generally, : they just seemed worn out -- the combination of age and two-plus years of : seemingly being ground down by Riley. 嗯~ 這讓油頭的球隊都不油頭了~ 至少你沒看過他這麼慘過. : In the end, it added up to a 15-67 disaster. I could regale you with all the : stories of exactly how bad they were in each individual category, but it's too : depressing. Moreover, it's not pertinent -- this coming season's Heat are going : to look very different from last year's edition. 最後是場15勝67敗的大災難XD 不過事情現在不一樣了. : The reason that will be the case stems from two very fortunate events that : happened in the second half of the season. 為什麼不一樣? 下面這兩件事讓一切不一樣. : First, Miami found a sucker to take on O'Neal's contract. The Heat traded : Shaq to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks; amazingly, they didn't have : to include a draft pick, a young player or anything else in order to complete : the deal, and in Marion they got the best player in the trade. 首先, 邁阿密終於找到凱子爹幫忙簽走俠客, 換了馬力安跟銀行來. : From Miami's perspective Phoenix's sudden interest in Shaq was akin to having a : $40 million bag of money land on the sidewalk in front of your house. Suddenly, : the Heat were out from the obligation to pay Shaq and could look forward to : major cap space in 2009, and in the meantime they had a star in Marion and a : potential solution at point guard in Banks. 鳳凰城幫簽了俠客後, 就像丟了一大袋銀子在你家門口(這句照翻不知為何有喜感XD) 09年可有大把空間搶人了. : Second, the Heat were so bad so early that they quickly fell out of the playoff : race and began concentrating on tanking … er, on developing their younger : players for next season. Wade shut his season down after 51 games, while Marion : and Udonis Haslem sat out with injuries that, well … let's just say they would : have been more gung ho about playing if they were in a playoff race. Their : absence helped Miami lose enough to secure the second overall pick in the draft : and take Michael Beasley. 此外, 典韋上季缺了51場, 馬力安跟小哈又都掛傷號~ 整季都是年輕人練球的好機會... 是, 是因為這些人缺席所以熱火上季提早放假, 但也是他們的"努力"才爭取到了第二籤跟Big-Easy阿... (編按: 真酸阿XD) : Nonetheless, this team is clearly in a rebuilding mode, and that was borne out : after the season when Riley stepped down -- perhaps for the last time -- and : handed the reins over to assistant Erik Spoelstra. A highly regarded assistant, : Spoelstra will have to contend with Riley's shadow looming over him from the : front office and the threat of Riley's returning if the team becomes a : contender, much as Stan Van Gundy did before him. But the 62-year-old Riley took : time off in each of the past three seasons, so one suspects he might be ready : to step down for good. 這當然是一支重建中球隊希望在油頭的垂簾聽政下, 濕婆教練好好幹XD 至少油頭年紀大了, 萬一濕婆幹太好...他不用擔心變成下一個大范岡迪... : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Biggest Strength: Speed : The Heat may have the fastest perimeter trio I've ever seen. Banks may not be : anybody's idea of a true point guard, but he is one of the speediest players in : basketball and can push it upcourt with anyone. (He'll follow that burst with a : horrible decision, but we're setting that aside for now.) Wade, of course, is a : blur at both ends when he's healthy, constantly creating breakouts with his : running ability and penchant for steals. And then there's Marion, one of the : best transition finishers of his generation and an especially speedy threat : when he slides up to power forward and consistently beats his man down the : floor. 強項: 速度銀行可能不是你想的那種好控衛, 不過可能是最快的控衛. 典韋 - 當然啦~ 健康時可是閃電般通殺兩邊籃下. 馬力安則是攻守轉換的最佳球員之一 : It gets interesting in that Miami's other players don't seem to have the jets : to keep up. With the exception of Wright and Beasley, pretty much everyone else : on Miami's roster is a pure half-court player who doesn't seek out transition : opportunities. So when Wade and Marion break out, players like Quinn, Jones, : Haslem and Blount will have to keep up or risk being left behind. 但, 不過不是人人都有TURBO可以按~ 除了新來的Big-Easy跟Wright以外, 熱火其他人都是打傳統半場陣地的料, 如果典韋跟馬力安老在那邊滿場飛奔...其他人大概就沒球玩了吧. : Biggest Weakness: Interior defense : A strength of the Heat throughout the ages, the team's ability to defend the : paint appears to suddenly be a major question mark. With Mourning and O'Neal : no longer around to anchor the defense, the only true centers on the roster are : Blount and Magloire -- and at this point in their respective careers, each is : little more than a third center. Project Joel Anthony seems nowhere close to : being ready, and while there are rumors of a midseason comeback by Mourning, it : remains to be seen both how much he has left and how long it would take him to : get up to speed. 痛腳: 內線防守不再是人瑞隊擔心年紀了~ 但禁區防守...他們現在有禁區防守可言嗎XD 除了希望季中晨星真的會回來, 不然就是看看大貓, 還有Joel Anthony情形如何. : That leaves Haslem as the team's likely starting center, and while he's a : hard-nosed defender, he's also 6-foot-8 and doesn't block shots. Joining him up : front is Beasley, a prodigious talent but one whose defense looms as a major : question mark. The only other bigs on the roster are "small-ball" power forwards : Jones and Wright, who are more posing as frontcourt players for matchup : purposes rather than players who are really capable of defending the position. : As a result, look for Miami to do a lotlot more doubling and scrambling against : he post than they've done in past years, especially when going up against the : likes of Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, or, dare we say it, Shaq. 小哈還比較像是球隊的先發中鋒, 也是防守狠腳色, 不過矮了點. Big-Easy天份是有, 但防守怎樣連張友驊都不會知道吧... 人人家裡有大人, 熱火只有小球玩, 等你打到魔獸跟姚明那種咖你就知道痛了, 呃, 對, 還會遇到俠客呢~~~~~~ : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Outlook : The Heat are perhaps the league's hardest team to predict this year. Make one : set of fairly rosy assumptions -- a healthy Wade playing at an MVP level, : joined by an active Beasley scoring right out of the gate -- and this team : looks like a division champion. Make another, more pessimistic set -- Wade : continuing to struggle with injuries, and Beasley needing a year of adjustment : -- and they're a 50-loss team. 展望可能是聯盟最難預測的一隊啦! 健康的典韋有MVP水準, Big-Easy可能馬上就加入搶分陣容, 這樣搞不好就分區龍頭了阿但你也不能不說下面那些可能萬一發生(呸呸呸) --- 馬上回到50敗俱樂部的陣營當中XD : So I'll do the only thing I can and split the difference. I modeled the Heat as : getting about 30 minutes a game from Wade -- including time off for injuries -- : with a PER of 26. That was way higher than his projection, but the projections : didn't know that Wade was limping through last season, nor did they watch Wade : dominating in the Olympics. 預測典韋平均上場30分(我把因傷停賽算進平均了XD), 拿個26分. 是比去年高, 但誰知道典韋今年健康如何哩? 看他屠宰奧運賽場是很爽啦...但..(呸呸) : As for Beasley, I gave him a rookie PER of 16.5 -- about what Kevin Durant did : a year ago -- in 33 minutes a night. I can't really model him playing much more : than that given the propensity of young bigs to foul. B-Easy嘛, 比照杜蘭特去年的標準好了, 33分鐘拿個16.5分, 不過這傢伙真的說不得準. : That makes for a nice nucleus with Wade and Marion, but then the question marks : come in earnest. Point guard and center are going to be major liabilities, the : bench only has one proven player in Jones, and the rookie coach Spoelstra will : be cutting his teeth as well. Additionally, there's a chance the team trades : Marion at midseason for future help, which would obviously diminish their : second-half results. 典韋馬力安雙核心是威啦, 但控衛跟中鋒就抖多了. 加上謎一般的板凳, 菜鳥教頭... 搞不好會來個季中馬力安大拍賣吧? 這也是影響他們下半季的重要因素. : While the possibilities for this team are all over the map, I get to pick only : one outcome. And the median of those possibilities seems to be that they'll : hang in the playoff race all season, and might not know their postseason fate : until the final game. 看起來還可以一拼季後賽席位啦, 或許要打到球季最後一天才能決定季後賽門票吧... : Prediction: 39-43, 3rd in Southeast Division, T-9th in Eastern Conference 預測東區老九爭老八. 39勝43敗. -- http://kelvin.mlab.net/ 十一樓的夏日琴聲. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.162.57.110

推

dennis1989

10/05 01:15, , 1^F

10/05 01:15, 1^F

推

wade1223

10/05 01:27, , 2^F

10/05 01:27, 2^F

推

shinyoker

10/05 01:33, , 3^F

10/05 01:33, 3^F