[其他] 作業研究(決策樹問題)
想麻煩高手大大們~是否有人能替小弟解答一下
Q: A nuclear power company is deciding whether or not to
build a nuclear power plant at Diablo Canyon or at Roy
Rogers City. The cost of building the power plant is $10
million at Diablo and $20 million at Roy Rogers City. If the
company builds at Diablo, however, and an earthquake
occurs at Diablo during the next five years, construction
will be terminated and the company will lose $10 million
(and will still have to build a power plant at Roy Rogers
City). A priori, the company believes there is a 20% chance
that an earthquake will occur at Diablo during the next five
years. For $1 million, a geologist can be hired to analyze the
fault structure at Diablo Canyon. He will either predict that
an earthquake will occur or that an earthquake will not
occur. The geologist’s past record indicates that he will
predict an earthquake on 95% of the occasions for which an
earthquake will occur and no earthquake on 90% of the
occasions for which an earthquake will not occur. Should
the power company hire the geologist? Also find EVSI and EVPI
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.119.235.114
推
04/19 13:06, , 1F
04/19 13:06, 1F
推
04/19 13:37, , 2F
04/19 13:37, 2F
→
04/19 13:37, , 3F
04/19 13:37, 3F
→
04/19 19:48, , 4F
04/19 19:48, 4F