[外電] (接)No-hitters like Sean Manaea's will

看板MLB作者green841112 (航空企鵝)時間6年前 (2018/04/25 13:39)推噓2(2推 0噓 5→)

留言7則, 3人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

Factor 1: It takes more pitches to complete a no-hitter than ever before. This season, batters are making pitchers throw a record 3.93 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.89 last year, 3.83 in 2015 and 3.74 in the early 2000s. Outs take more pitches than hits, and strikeouts take more pitches than other outs, and strikeouts are a bigger percentage of outs than they've ever been. For that matter, walks (which take the most pitches of all) are much more common than they've been in any season since 2000. 原因一:這個原因會比以前投出無安打比賽花更多用球數。這一季打者每個打席所花的球數是3.93顆，比去年的3.89顆，2015年的3.83顆以及2000初期的3.74顆還要多。出局所花的球數比擊出安打還要多，而投出三振比任何出局方式用球數都還要多而三振占了比賽的大部分的出局數。而且，從2000開始四壞球變得更普遍。 If we look at all the games in which a team threw nine innings and allowed no hits or one hit, the number of pitches required to get the 27 outs has been steadily rising. In the 1990s, the median pitch count in these games was 114. In the 2000s, it was 115, in the first half of this decade it was 117, and in 2016-2017 it was 120. This year, the median is 125 pitches. Most of those are one-hitters, so knock off three or four pitches from those averages to reflect one fewer batter, but the rise is real. 如果我們整季關注一支球隊在九局比賽內沒有安打或是一支安打，則用球數則會要抓27 個出局數而逐漸上升。在90年代，整場比賽的用球數的中位數是114顆。在00年代則是 115顆，在2005年時來到了117顆，到了16-17賽季是120顆。今年的用球數中位數是125顆大部份這些是一安打比賽，所以可從平均值少算三或四球反映多出來的一個打者但有上升是真的。 Factor 2: The occurrences of 120-pitch starts have gotten really rare. We all know that teams are more sensitive about pitch counts, and that on average pitchers get pulled from games earlier than ever. But it's not just on average: On the extremes, in the very best starts, teams are far less likely to let a pitcher go deep. Last season, 95 percent of starters were pulled at 110 pitches or fewer. Just seven years ago, the 95th percentile pitch count was 117, and in 2000 it was 124 -- plenty of pitches to complete the typical no-hitter. If, on average, it'll take 120 pitches these days to throw a no-hitter, then few pitchers would be allowed to go that far:Of course, managers always have given their pitchers longer leashes when history is on the line, so this wouldn't be a problem. What is a problem is ... 原因二:能夠單一次先發時投120球的先發投手已經相當稀少了。我們知道球隊越來越注重先發投手的用球數，投手只要高於平均投球數就會越早被換下來。但是這不只是在平均之上極端的例子好的先發投手球團會更早換下場避免用球數過多。上個球季，95%的先發投手會在投到110球前被換下場休息。七年前，第95個百分位的投球數是117球，2000年時是124顆--投出一場無安打比賽是需要大量的投球數。如果用高於平均用球數來看將要花 120顆用球數去完成一場無安打比賽，但是幾乎不會有投手被允許投到這樣的球數。當然，總經理會希望他的投手可以在歷史上記上一筆，所以這些都是不問題。但問題是... http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23291116/no-hitters-sean-manaea-become -rarer-rarer (外電真的不是太好翻我也還沒完全翻完要先準備考試先跟大家抱歉一下剩下的有空再翻會這樣是希望大家可以看到不一樣的棒球新聞) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.165.170.139 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1524634742.A.D33.html

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