[外電] 大谷翔平有沒有2億鎂的價值？
來源：ESPN
網址：http://tinyurl.com/y9hawk9e
Olney: How can Shohei Otani make up $200 million in squandered value?
大谷翔平有2億鎂的價值嗎？
Let’s get this part of the Shohei Otani drama out of the way: All 30 Major
League Baseball teams will presumably submit the paperwork indicating a
willingness to pay the $20 million posting fee for the multitalented star. A
failure to do so -- even for executives who believe they have no chance of
landing Otani -- would be the general manager’s version of failing to run
out a ground ball. No GM wants to explain to his fan base why he didn’t at
least express formal interest in the player who will dominate baseball’s
offseason.
讓我們把這齣『大谷劇』用這樣的方式來說吧：全大聯盟30隊應該都會提出文件說他們都
願意出2000萬鎂的出價費來爭取大谷加盟。哪隊沒出文件的--即使是那些根本一絲一毫都
沒機會的隊伍--就會像是球場版『連滾地球都封殺不了的選手』的球隊總管。沒有球隊總
管會想去跟球迷解釋，為什麼球隊連試都沒試試看去爭取一下大谷。
Beyond that, the anticipated chase of Otani is shrouded in mystery, with
evaluators trying to figure out what factors will make the difference when
the would-be pitcher and slugger makes his decision about where he will play.
在那之外，競逐大谷的故事發展就將會是一場謎了，大家將會猜測到底哪些因素會影響這
投打雙刀流的大物做將來去哪裡打球的決定。
Could it be geography? Could it be market size? Could it be friendships?
Could it be the recruiting talents of former Japanese stars, such as Ichiro
Suzuki or Hideki Matsui? Could Otani's endorsement opportunities be pivotal?
Could it be the agent’s relationship with specific teams? Could it be the
designated hitter rule?
會是地理因素？會是市場大小？會是他跟誰的友誼？或是球隊之前有收過日本球員像是朗
神或是松井秀喜？又或是大谷的代言機會？還是他的經紀人跟某些球隊關係比較好？還是
有或沒指定打擊的球隊？
Could it be none of the above and really pivot around something that no team
knows about?
還是以上皆非，然後真正重要的因素沒有任何球隊知道？
Scouts have invested a lot of time trying to find clues to the formula for
landing Otani, and yet, one evaluator said recently, “It’s incredible how
many unknowns there are.”
球探們花了一堆的時間嘗試找到線索，找出如何可以得到大谷的方式，但是目前為止，有
一個說法出現，「有太多未知的因素了～」
That Otani will apparently forge ahead with plans to play in MLB in 2018 in
spite of the fact that he stands to make more money by waiting two years has
only increased the appreciation for the player. “It tells you that he’s
serious about wanting to play against the best possible competition,” one
executive said. “He’s putting his money where his mouth is.”
大谷已經開始計畫要在2018年在大聯盟打球，雖然他若是再等兩年他的價值會更高。「那
告訴你他是很認真的想要跟最好的球員打球，」一個球團高層說。「他要用實力表現來說
話。」
As far as we know, anyway; Otani has actually been extremely careful in
talking about his plans, a reticence that has only increased the uncertainty
for teams as they try to assess the situation.
就目前所知，大谷現在對於他未來打球的計畫發言都非常的小心－這增加球團在評估的不
確定性。
In some respects, Otani’s circumstances are a lot like those for a five-star
college basketball recruit: Teams will attend his games as much to be seen as
they are to see him, to reinforce the perception of their interest. And, some
of those interested in Otani wonder about what rule-bending financial
arrangements might take place.
在某些方面，大谷的狀況有點像是在招募5星級的大學球員：球團們會盡量去看他的比賽，
確定球團對他是否有興趣；甚至，對他有興趣的球團可能會因為想得到他去改變他們的財
務安排。
One evaluator estimated that, in a vacuum, Otani might be worth $200 million
if he was a free agent up for auction. But because of the terms of the
collective bargaining agreement executed by MLB and the players' association
last fall, the most that Otani, 23, can receive is the money available under
the international signing restrictions. The Associated Press reported the
other day that the Texas Rangers could offer the most money to Otani at
$3.535 million. The New York Yankees can offer $3.25 million. Offers from
other teams would be in the same fiscal neighborhood, which is what a lot of
middle relievers receive -- not superstar-level players, which is what
executives expect Otani will be, whether he eventually pitches, hits or does
both. His fastball has been clocked as high as 101 mph recently, and last
year, he batted .322, with an OPS of 1.004. Otani played through an ankle
problem and batted .341 this year.
有個評估報告是說－大谷如果是個FA大家都可以標的話，他會有2億鎂的價值。但是因為去
年聯盟跟球員工會的團體協商決議，23歲的大谷只能拿低於國際簽約金的限制。幾日前德
州遊騎兵說可能可以開到353萬5千鎂，洋基可以給325萬鎂，而其他有差不多財力的球隊大
概會是給一個中等救援投手的價位--不是像大谷這種超級球員等級的價位，不管最後大谷
是會投，或打，還是投打都做。他的快速球最近測到的是101mph，去年他的打擊是.322，
OPS是1.004，今年因為腳踝的問題，打擊率還有.341。
So how do you make up for that $200 million in squandered value, one official
wondered.
所以有關人士懷疑，到底大谷的2億鎂價值是怎麼算出來的？
A theory floated is that the team that lands Otani could circumvent the
financial limitations in place by assuring the player that they won’t tender
him a contract after the first or second season, allowing Otani to become a
free agent -- with a prenegotiated deal to follow with the team that cut him
free. But sources indicate that Major League Baseball would view that as an
obvious attempt to effectively break the rules and would come down hard on
Otani’s MLB team. “Because there’s no reasonable logic to failing to
tender a contract to a young star player other than to get around the rules,”
said one official.
目前有個理論在流傳，就是得到大谷的球隊會想辦法規避薪水規定，答應他在大谷打完第
一或第二年之後，不會提出新的合約，這樣大谷就可以成為自由球員--這會是事先就談好
的條件。但是有來源指出聯盟會把這樣的行為視為犯規，會狠很修理讓大谷加入的球隊。
「因為對一個年輕球員沒提出個合約是沒有道理的，除非球隊是在規避規定。」一位官方
人士說到。
Otani’s situation will be highly scrutinized and commissioner Rob Manfred
has made it known he wants the integrity of the current international-signing
system to be honored.
大谷的案子將是會用放大鏡檢視，而且聯盟主席Manfred也讓球隊知道，他希望大家可以遵
守目前國際簽約系統的規則。
“Otani is a great player,” Manfred said the other day. “We're always
interested in having great players in Major League Baseball. From my
perspective, I'm more concerned about having the right, durable system than
whether a player comes this year or two years from now."
「大谷是個好球員，」Manfred之前說到。「我們對聯盟擁有好球員一直都很有興趣，從我
的角度來看，我更在乎的是有一個好的，持久的招募系統，而不是去在意一個球員是一年
後或是兩年後要來聯盟打球。」
Some evaluators believe that whoever Otani picks to serve as his agent will
have to play a crucial role, because that agent may have to arrange an
understanding of how the player can recoup his value after 2019, when the
rules would allow him to lock in a long-term contract. That kind of
off-the-record deal-making is against baseball’s rules, but as one official
said, “Let’s not be naïve. ... You’ll need an agent with the
relationships to get that done.”
一些評估甚至說，不管大谷選了誰做經紀人，那經紀人非常重要，因為那經紀人得要確保
大谷在2019年後可以拿到符合他身價的約，而且可以讓大谷拿到一個長約。那種台面下的
交易是違反規則的，但是一位官方人士表示，「大家不要太天真了...大谷需要一個有那些
關係的經紀人去幫他把這些事辦下來。」
But no one seems to know Otani well enough to get a sense of what he’ll ask
for or expect. Would he want to play in New York, with Masahiro Tanaka? Would
he want to play in L.A.? San Francisco? Texas, where his friend Yu Darvish
fared well? Does he like the apparent flexibility in how the Dodgers arrange
their roster? Would he like a chance to serve as a DH? Would he prefer a
pitcher’s park? Would he want to be the latest in the Red Sox tradition of
great left-handed hitters and effectively step into the role left behind by
David Ortiz? Does he harbor a secret desire to own Milwaukee and have season
tickets to the Packers?
但是似乎沒人很瞭解大谷，猜不出大谷要什麼。他想不想在紐約跟田中將大一起打球？他
想不想在LA打？舊金山？或是跟他的朋友達比修曾經打球的德州？他是不是喜歡目前道奇
如何安排他們的輪值？他會不會想打一下指定打擊？他會不會比較想在有利投手的球場打
球？他會不會想成為紅襪最新的左手大砲，接下David Ortiz退休後的空缺？還是他有奇特
的興趣想在Milwaukee定居，或是他有綠灣Packers的季票？
Within the industry, there is an expectation that the usual suspects among
the big markets will have an advantage -- the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Red
Sox, Giants, etc. “We can all pick out the five or six teams that probably
have a legitimate shot,” one official said.
在棒球世界，大家普遍認為大市場的球隊比較有機會--道奇，洋基，小熊，紅襪，巨人
等。「我們大概可以排出5到6隊比較有機會的球隊，」一個官方人士說。
But no one seems to know for sure, and more and more, it feels like the team
Otani eventually signs with will feel like they won baseball's Powerball that
will pay annually for years to come.
但是似乎沒人可以確定，而且，越來越多人覺得，簽下大谷的球隊像是買到棒球的威力彩
頭獎，每年都可以拿到回報～
--
“Let’s not be naïve. ... "
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1505717981.A.C10.html
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