Re: [閒聊] 追逐外卡的起點
※ 引述《vince4687 (incredible4687)》之銘言:
你是對的,今年美東搶龍頭可能比搶外卡容易
金鳥現在的勝率是55%,維持這個勝率到季末是89勝
FG的playoff odds預測金鳥季末會拿85勝,下表是達到89、85勝四隊剩下需要的勝率
第二列是這樣的勝率標準化成162場會是幾勝
89勝 85勝 PO預測封王機率
NYY 59% 96 54% 87 12.1%
TOR 60% 96 54% 87 31.1%
BOS 66% 108 61% 99 6.1%
TBR 67% 108 61% 99 7.3%
機會有沒有?不能說沒有,還沒人封王前球都是圓的
只是下個禮拜就是731了,站在現在這個時間點,
紅襪不當賣家滿有可能,但是光芒大概是付不起Price明年的薪水的
至於當買家,well...
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