[翻譯] 本季被打到後傷害"最大"和"最小"的球路

看板MLB作者zkow (澹如秋水貧中味)時間10年前 (2013/08/25 01:59)推噓15(15推 0噓 3→)

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本季被打到後傷害"最大"和"最小"的球路 Baseball’s Most Extreme Pitches from Starters, So Far by Stats All Folks - August 24, 2013 Introduction After reading Jeff Sullivan’s piece entitled “Identifying Baseball’s Most Unhittable Pitches, So Far” on August 21, I found his methodology to be quite interesting. It was suggested in the comments rather than looking at whiff rate we should consider who has allowed the weakest contact. Now, there are a couple of different ways to look at weakest contact. First, you could look at batted ball velocity. You could also look at batted ball distance as well. Both of these techniques would provide some measure of the severity of contact allowed by a pitcher. At the end of the day though, a warning track fly ball is still as effective for a pitcher as a pop up. I thought it would be better to look at who got hurt the least with their pitches. 在讀了 Jeff Sullivan的大作 “Identifying Baseball’s Most Unhittable Pitches, So Far”(中文在 #1I5Oi4dg，譯按)之後，我覺得他的評估方法很有意思。我在意見中談到不要用揮空，而改用 weakest contact作標準。對此首先，你可以看被打出去的球的速度，你也可以看被打出去的距離。但不論如何，打到警戒區的深遠飛球跟內野高飛在結果上也沒甚麼差別。因此我想看看哪種球路所造成的 "傷害" 最小是一個較好的標準。 In saying that, I mean to look at what pitchers are theoretically giving up nothing but singles on a pitch versus what pitchers are theoretically giving up nothing but home runs. A quick calculation to quantify this value is total bases per hit allowed (TB/H). This is the same as the ratio between slugging percentage and batting average (SLG/AVG). Values have to be between one and four. A value of 1.00 corresponds to only singles. A value of 4.00 corresponds to only home runs. Any value in between could represent a combination of all hit types. 就此而言，我指的是考慮兩種極端情況的差別，投手永遠被打一壘安打跟投手永遠被打全壘打。而我所採用的標準是每支安打的平均壘打數。這跟考慮長打率除以打擊率一樣。值會在 1 到 4 之間，如果是 1，表示永遠只會被打一壘安打，如果是 4，表是永遠背尻出牆外。在此之間的數值代表了各種情況的平均。 Baseball Prospectus provides PitchF/X leaderboards for eight different pitch types: four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, splitter, changeup, curveball, slider, and knuckleball. I chose to look at only starting pitchers in this study. Also, to be considered, a pitcher had to have thrown at least 200 of the pitch of interest. The league leaders in games started are just above 25. If we are conservative and estimate 80 pitches per start, that allows for 2000 pitches thrown, so 200 would represent roughly 10% of the pitcher’s arsenal. With that background information now covered, let’s look at the best and worst pitchers in each pitch type. All data is accurate through August 22. BP為八種球路提供了 PitchF/X 排行，包括了四縫線速球，伸卡，卡特，指叉，變速，曲球，滑球以及蝴蝶球。在本篇文章中我只考慮了先發投手，以及使用過該球路超過兩百次以上者。目前聯盟先發最多者略多於 25 次，如果我們保守一點假設每次先發只用 80 球，那麼我們會有 2000 球的資料，所以 200 球表示了大約 10 %的使用率。解釋過選擇標準後，我們就來看看各種球路最好跟最差的吧，以下資料到八月22日為止： Data Four-Seam Fastball Pitcher Team TB/H Jarrod Cosart HOU 1.20 Tyler Chatwood COL 1.20 Stephen Fife LAD 1.22 Bartolo Colon OAK 1.26 Joe Kelly STL 1.26 Lucas Harrell HOU 2.33 Todd Redmond TOR 2.20 Allen Webster BOS 2.20 Tyler Skaggs ARI 2.15 Erik Bedard HOU 2.10 Sinker Pitcher Team TB/H Brandon Cumpton PIT 1.10 Taylor Jordan WSH 1.10 John Lackey BOS 1.21 Gerrit Cole PIT 1.22 Jon Pettibone PHI 1.22 Wade Davis KCR 1.22 Yu Darvish TEX 2.27 Bud Norris BAL 2.12 Aaron Harang SEA 1.96 Scott Kazmir CLE 1.93 Jon Lester BOS 1.92 Cutter Pitcher Team TB/H Clay Buchholz BOS 1.11 Jenrry Mejia NYM 1.17 Lucas Harrell HOU 1.20 Jonathon Niese NYM 1.21 Mike Pelfrey MIN 1.31 Jeff Samardzija CHC 2.00 Jerome Williams LAA 1.95 Cole Hamels PHI 1.90 A.J. Griffin OAK 1.86 Yu Darvish TEX 1.85 Splitter Pitcher Team TB/H Hiroki Kuroda NYY 1.22 Jake Westbrook STL 1.31 Jorge dela Rosa COL 1.32 Doug Fister DET 1.33 Hisashi Iwamuka SEA 1.33 Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 1.72 Tim Hudson ATL 1.70 Dan Haren WSH 1.69 Tim Lincecum SFG 1.61 Jason Marquis SDP 1.58 Changeup Pitcher Team TB/H Stephen Strasburg WSH 1.00 Matt Harvey NYM 1.06 Gio Gonzalez WSH 1.10 Francisco Liriano PIT 1.14 Bud Norris BAL 1.22 John Danks CHW 2.21 Jeremy Hefner NYM 1.96 Dan Straily OAK 1.91 Randall Delgado ARI 1.89 Edinson Volquez SDP 1.87 Curveball Pitcher Team TB/H Clayton Kershaw LAD 1.00 Jason Hammel BAL 1.00 C.J. Wilson LAA 1.07 Dillon Gee NYM 1.14 Max Scherzer DET 1.17 Homer Bailey CIN 2.33 Zack Greinke LAD 2.09 Wandy Rodriguez PIT 2.00 Tim Hudson ATL 2.00 John Lackey BOS 2.00 Slider Pitcher Team TB/H Tyson Ross SDP 1.00 Jordan Zimmermann WSH 2.24 Jorge de la Rosa COL 1.17 Wade Miley ARI 2.07 Bartolo Colon OAK 1.18 Dallas Keuchel HOU 2.06 Jeremy Hefner NYM 1.24 Carlos Villanueva CHC 2.06 C.J. Wilson LAA 1.24 Hisashi Iwamuka SEA 1.96 最後，為了完整 Knuckleball Pitcher Team TB/H R.A. Dickey TOR 1.68 Combining all that data together, we get the following five pitches as the best in baseball so far. 綜合以上資料，我們得到一下五種球路為目前棒球界最佳。 Pitcher Team Pitch TB/H Stephen Strasburg WSH Changeup 1.00 Clayton Kershaw LAD Curveball 1.00 Jason Hammel BAL Curveball 1.00 Tyson Ross SDP Slider 1.00 Matt Harvey NYM Changeup 1.06 Also, to complete the picture, here are the worst five pitches in baseball so far. 同時，最差的五種球路。 Pitcher Team Pitch TB/H Lucas Harrell HOU Four-Seam 2.33 Homer Bailey CIN Curveball 2.33 Yu Darvish TEX Sinker 2.27 Jordan Zimmermann WSH Slider 2.24 John Danks CHW Changeup 2.21 Analysis As you can see, there are a lot of “good” pitchers that throw “lousy” pitches. This metric is far from perfect. For example, Yu Darvish appears in the bottom five in two different categories. Does that mean Darvish should stop throwing his sinker and cutter? No, it most certainly does not. It just shows that when Darvish makes a (albeit rare) mistake with either pitch hitters are mashing it. I found this a fun exercise that yielded results that may not be the most meaningful but that are interesting for discussion nonetheless. 如你所見，有很多 "好投手" 使用"爛球路"。我們採用的標準顯然還有許多不足，舉例來說，達比修有兩種球路背排在倒數五名，這代表達比修應該不要再丟伸卡跟卡特球了嗎？當然不是。這只是表示了達比修這兩種球路一旦失投，都被尻得很慘。想關研究是一個有趣的問題，儘管結果不完美，問題本身卻有很多討論的空間很意義。 http://ppt.cc/Kjs2 感謝大家支持，故翻譯這篇 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.119.96.46

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※ 編輯: zkow 來自: 140.119.96.46 (08/25 02:01)

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