[情報] Nate Silver解釋Trout是MVP的原因

看板MLB作者abc12812時間11年前 (2012/11/15 09:23)推噓22(25推 3噓 20→)

留言48則, 32人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/aza3n67 The argument on Trout’s behalf isn’t all that complicated: he provided the greater overall contribution to his team. Trout was a much better defensive player than Cabrera, and a much better base runner. And if Cabrera was the superior hitter, it wasn’t by nearly as much as the triple crown statistics might suggest. 很簡單 Trout的跑壘和防守大勝就算Cabrera打擊比較好也頂多只好一些而已 Over all, Trout contributed about 12 additional runs on the basepaths when compared with an average runner. The bulky Cabrera, by contrast, cost the Tigers about three runs on the bases. Trout跑壘多拿12分 Cabrera跑壘少拿3分 One of these systems, Ultimate Zone Rating, estimates that Trout saved the Angels 11 runs with his defense in the outfield. Cabrera, a clumsy defender at third base who is more naturally suited to play first base, cost the Tigers 10 runs with his. Trout防守多守11分 Cabrera防守多失10分 Between his defense and his base running, therefore, Trout was about 35 runs more valuable to the Angels than Cabrera was to the Tigers. By contrast, the 14 additional home runs that Cabrera hit (44 against Trout’s 30) were worth about 22 extra runs for the Tigers, based on measures that convert players’ contributions to a common scale. Trout在防守和跑壘上領先35分 Cabrera多的14轟大約只值22分 Angel Stadium is shallower in straight center field, making up for much of the difference, but since most of Cabrera’s home runs came to the power alleys, playing in Anaheim would likely have hurt his statistics on balance. Trout, who hits to all fields, is less sensitive to his ballpark, and had slightly better overall numbers than Cabrera in road games. 天使球場比老虎球場難打擊很多客場打擊數據Trout比Cabrera略好 But much of the difference simply reflects the fact that Cabrera hits third in the batting order, and had more opportunities to hit with runners on base. His 89 R.B.I.’s with runners in scoring position came in 205 plate appearances, a rate of 0.43 R.B.I.’s per opportunity. Trout’s 53 R.B.I.’s came in just 135 opportunities, since he is the Angels’ leadoff hitter. That yields a similar rate of production: 0.39 R.B.I.’s per plate appearance with runners in scoring position. 兩個人的打點有差但修正RISP的機會後兩人的打點率大約都是0.39RBI/RISP In fact, there are now systems, like Win Probability Added, that measure all aspects of clutch performance in a comprehensive way. They account not just for the number of runners on base and the number of outs, but also the game score and the inning. A grand slam when a team trails by three runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth turns a near-certain loss into a win, giving a player maximal credit by this system. A grand slam when a team already leads 7-0 gets little credit, since the game is already in hand. According to this measure, Trout was actually slightly more valuable than Cabrera as an offensive player, considering the timing of his contributions. Add in his defense and base running, and it isn’t all that close a call. 用WAP來看關鍵表現其實Trout關鍵火力比Cabrera稍好再加進防守和跑壘的話勝負已經很明顯了 It may seem hard to argue against a player who won the triple crown. But Cabrera’s numbers, while worthy of an M.V.P. award in many seasons, weren’t historically great. His batting average, R.B.I. and home run totals would also have qualified for the American League’s triple crown in 2008. Before that, however, you would have to go back to 1972 to find a year in which his numbers were good enough to lead the league in all three categories. 雖說Cabrera是三冠王但數據上並不是歷史級的好同樣的數據在過去40年只會在2008和1972兩年同樣是三冠王 There is also the fact that Cabrera’s Tigers made the playoffs, while Trout’ s Angels did not. But the Angels won more games (89) than the Tigers (88), missing the playoffs because they played in a harder division. Trout, moreover, began the year in the minors; the Angels went 81-58 in games in which he participated, equivalent to their winning 94 games over a full season. 老虎進季後賽但天使勝場數比較多 Trout打滿整季的話天使勝場會是94勝 Still, the real progress in the statistical analysis of baseball is in the ability to evaluate the contributions that a player makes on the field in a more reliable and comprehensive way. 數據衡量球場表現的精確度變高很多 Perhaps 10 or 20 years ago, when evaluations of base running, defense and clutch hitting were murkier, stat geeks would have argued that Cabrera deserved the M.V.P. on the basis of the hard evidence. 若是在十幾二十年前計算跑壘防守還不精確的時代數據派或許會依據手上的事實支持Cabrera Now that some of the “intangibles” have become measurable, we know that Trout did more of the little things to help his team win. 但現在一些所謂的"靈性"已經可以被計算我們知道Trout做了更多的基本功來幫助球隊贏球 It’s the traditionalists who are using statistics in a way that misses the forest for the trees. 傳統派才是用數據卻見樹不見林的一派 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.25.133

推

WadeMiley

11/15 09:27, , 1^F

11/15 09:27, 1^F

推

tmlc

11/15 10:01, , 2^F

11/15 10:01, 2^F

推

hllmayday

11/15 10:03, , 3^F

11/15 10:03, 3^F