[翻譯] 2012-13小熊季末短評+預覽

看板MLB作者KBeckinsale (狗褲襠留給你老媽鑽)時間13年前 (2012/10/05 10:31)推噓32(32推 0噓 14→)

留言46則, 34人參與討論串1/1

http://ppt.cc/xpbn General Manager Jed Hoyer will have some money to spend this offseason and plenty of holes to fill, beginning with the starting rotation. Matt Garza could be a trade chip but he could also be the team's Opening Day starter. The team has held in-season auditions for several relief pitchers but not too many questions have been answered in regards to the 2013 bullpen. Cubs fans will give Hoyer and Theo Epstein a pass for a 100-loss, or near 100-loss, year one. They're currently at 97 losses with six games to go. The big league club, however, will need to show significant improvement in year two. While a playoff appearance might be too much to ask, another losing season probably won't be acceptable for Cubs fans. 在休賽期間,百年將有一些錢可以用來補洞和先發輪值。Matt Garza可能是一個交易籌碼 , 但他也可以用來當作開幕戰先發的人選。今年不意外的是一個百敗球季,要使得球隊有競爭力恐怕還需要兩年的時間。雖然要求明年就衝擊季後賽實在有點困難,但對於小熊球迷來說實在無法接受再一個失敗的球季。 STARTING LINEUP ANALYSIS For a team near the bottom of the league in many important offensive categories, it's surprising that there are only a couple of obvious holes in the lineup as we head into the offseason. Anthony Rizzo (.290-15-47) has proven that he can handle a spot in the middle of the Cubs order while 36 year-old Alfonso Soriano (31 HR, 106 RBI), who the Cubs couldn't give away last offseason, showed that he still had plenty left in the tank. David DeJesus has had a strong debut season with the team and Starlin Castro, who recently inked a seven-year, $60 million contract extension, continues to improve and could be the face of the franchise over the next several years. Add second baseman Darwin Barney and catcher Welington Castillo to that group of Cubs who have done enough to secure starting jobs in 2013. 先發打線分析雖然很多重要打擊數據都排名在聯盟後段,但是先發打線中只有幾個明顯的洞。Anthony Rizzo (.290-15-47)已經證明他有能耐打大聯盟的中心棒次。而Soriano 雖然已經36歲了 ,但他今年的表現證明他仍然是不差的。 David DeJesus在小熊的第一個球季打的不差,剛簽下7年約的Starlin Castro也持續進步 ,未來渴望成為小熊的看板人物。二壘手Barney和捕手新秀Castillo表現也足夠加入2013 的先發陣容。 Now for those obvious holes. Prospects Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters, after a reasonable amount of success in Triple A, had a chance to show what they could do with semi-regular playing time in center field and third base, respectively. The 24 year-old Jackson is hitting just .174 with 4 HR, 20 BB, and 54 K in 39 games while the 23 year-old Vitters is doing even worse. He's 11-for-96 with 4 BB and 32 K, giving the Cubs no choice but to continue giving at-bats to Luis Valbuena (.671 OPS). Ian Stewart, who started the season at the hot corner after being acquired from Colorado, is a non-tender candidate as he enters his second year of arbitration and coming off a very unimpressive Cubs debut. Unless they feel that injuries hampered his production, I'd expect him to be out of the picture. 中外野新秀Brett Jackson和三壘手Josh Vitters今年打的很爛,不過他們在3A的成功,讓他們仍有機會在大聯盟固定出賽來證明自己。先發三壘手Luis Valbuena 表現也很糟糕, 不過百年沒有別的選擇。Ian Stewart季末極有可能被Non-tender, 除非百年認為他今年的爛表現是因為傷勢影響。 It's worth mentioning that three of the organization's top prospects -- if not the top 3 -- are all 20 years old or younger but have the talent to move quickly. Outfielder Jorge Soler, a 20 year-old Cuban who signed a nine-year major league contract in June, could be knocking down the door to the big leagues in 2014. Shortstop Javier Baez, still only 19, was the team's 1st Round draft pick in 2011. He could eventually be the answer at third base but might need two more seasons in the minors. Outfielder Albert Almora, this year's top draft pick, is only 18 years old and several years away from the big leagues. It might be a small consolation when your team loses 100 games but that's a trio of hitting prospects that could be among the best in baseball. 值得一提的是,農場中前3大新秀,都是20歲以下的青春肉體而且極具天賦。 20歲的外野手古巴人Jorge Soler今年六月簽下9年的合約, 可能會在2014看到他。游擊新秀Javier Baez只有19歲,2011的首輪新秀,或許是未來三壘手的答案,但可能還需要在 minor磨練個兩年。而今年的首輪新秀Albert Almora只有18歲,離大聯盟也還有一段距離。雖然這幾年球隊戰績令人失望,但農場的深度還是能給小熊迷一點小小的安慰。 STARTING PITCHING ANALYSIS Shopping Garza might not be on the agenda this offseason considering the lack of pitching depth they currently have. For instance, journeyman Justin Germano has been in their rotation since late July. He has a 6.18 ERA and there really aren't too many better options. Lefties Chris Rusin and Brooks Raley, successful soft-tossers in the minors, were roughed up. Chris Volstad, another non-tender candidate, has been a model of inconsistency with too many games of 5 ER+ allowed in between those of 3 ER or less allowed. Former reliever Jeff Samardzija has been one of the lone bright spots on the pitching staff, finishing his season with a 3.81 ERA in 28 starts. The 27 year-old had 56 BB and 180 K in 174.2 innings pitched. Between Garza, Samardzija, and lefty Travis Wood (4.23 ERA in 24 starts), the Cubs have the makings of a solid starting rotation. Filling out that rotation and providing some depth with no capable internal candidates could be a challenge. Expect the Cubs to be aggressive in accomplishing this goal in November and December. 先發投手分析考量到輪值深度,可能不會將Matt Garza交易出去。今年的先發投手像是浪人Justin Germano ERA高達6.18,但也真的沒有其他選擇了。南面爪Chris Rusin和Brooks Raley在minor投的還不錯,但在Major炸的很慘。而Chris Volstad是另一個可能會被non-tender的人選,今年他的成績3-12 ERA是糟糕的 6.31。由牛棚轉先發的Jeff Samardzija是本季唯一的亮點,雖然季末被停機,但28場出賽裡ERA 只有3.81,27歲的他在174.2局裡有180K和56個BB。 Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija和Travis Wood將是明年輪值的支柱,在內部沒有合適人選的情形下,季末補強應該會相當積極。 RELIEF PITCHING ANALYSIS The good news is that closer Carlos Marmol, who is owed $9.8 million in 2013, turned things around in the second half. The potential bad news is that the Cubs could choose not to address this area and then watch as he totally falls apart again in 2013 as he did in April and May of 2012 when he lost his closer's job. What the Cubs did learn -- or maybe they already knew this -- is that they had absolutely no depth behind Marmol and needed to start looking for a closer of the future. They may have done this when they traded Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson to the Braves for Arodys Vizcaino, a hard-throwing 21 year-old who was supposed to play an integral role in the Braves' bullpen before Tommy John surgery sidelined him before the season started. Now he could be that guy in Chicago once he's completely healthy again. He should be ready to return early next season, if not by Opening Day. While there is a need for some more late-inning help, Michael Bowden and James Russell have been the most reliable of the current group and are good bets to win middle relief jobs next season. A few others have shown flashes, but none have been consistent enough to trust in a role next season without showing some serious improvement next spring. Converted starter Alberto Cabrera might have the best arm of any pitcher who made an appearance out of the Cubs' bullpen but he may need another half-season in Triple-A before he's ready. 牛棚分析好消息是2013年薪水高達9.8M的Carlos Marmol下半季表現回穩,但如果Marmol又像4 5月那樣大爆炸,牛棚裡沒有足夠的深度,這是季末必須解決的問題。從Paul Maholm和Reed Johnson交易案來的新秀Arodys Vizcaino可能可以解決這個問題, 今年他在勇士牛棚中表現亮眼,一旦他能夠健康,將能給予牛棚幫助。 Michael Bowden和James Russell今年在late inning的表現不錯,渴望明年繼續在牛棚擔任重要角色。Alberto Cabrera今年從先發轉成後援投手,他擁有很棒的淺力,但或許在 minor磨練半個球季對他來說會比較好。 ASSESSMENT/OFFSEASON NEEDS The Cubs appear to be making strides in building up their farm system but have a ways to go before their big league club is competitive again. If they can acquire two good starting pitchers via trade or free agency, a veteran setup man who can close if Marmol falters again, and a third baseman and center fielder who can just put up league average numbers, then we're looking at a much-improved Cubs team. This is easier said than done, however. They'll need a very good offseason from Jed and Theo if that's going to happen. 評估/offseason的需求農場系統算是頗有進展,但想成為一隻能衝擊季後賽的球隊還有一大段路要走。如果季末能夠透過交易或者fa找來好的先發投手、有經驗的setup man、有聯盟平均水準的三壘手和外野手的話, 也許明年可以稍微令人期待。但說的容易做的難,一切就看Theo能夠讓百年如何成長囉.... -- 棒球之神:Ichiro Suzuki 拳擊之神:Mike Tyson 籃球之神:Michael Jordan 高球之神:Tiger Woods 摔角之神:Bill Goldberg 日摔之神:Kobashi Kenta 足球之神:Ronaldo Luís Nazário de Lima ＡＶ之神:かとうたか網球之神:Roger Federer 武術之神:Bruce Lee -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.34.36.137

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