[外電] Strasburg Shutdown and What We Don't..

看板MLB作者JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)時間11年前 (2012/09/12 12:23)推噓6(6推 0噓 5→)

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The Strasburg Shutdown and What We Don’t Know http://ppt.cc/_B~n by Dave Cameron - September 10, 2012 On Friday night, Stephen Strasburg took the mound in Nationals Park for the last time in 2012. Since I live about six hours from DC and I hadn’t seen him pitch in person yet, I figured I shouldn’t pass up on the opportunity to see him for myself, so I made the drive up on Friday afternoon. As you’ve undoubtedly heard, Strasburg wasn’t particularly sharp on Friday, getting removed after throwing just three innings, and so the Nationals decided that Friday was his final start of the year, moving his shutdown up one start and ending his season at 159 1/3 innings. 星期五是Strasburg在2012年的最後一次登板這場比賽Strasburg不像之前那樣主宰投滿三局就被球隊換下場今年他投了159又1/3局 It’s obviously a rather controversial decision, and I’ve advocated for the position of more aggressive usage, skipping starts and manipulating the off days to try and make him available for the postseason. Watching him struggle in his final start didn’t disuade me from believing in the merits of that kind of approach, and I do think that perhaps there were alternative ways of handling his workload that might have allowed him for pitch deeper into the season. However, the unavoidable reality of this situation is that everyone is dealing with a great quantity of unknown variables, and for any of us to say that one decision is distinctly better or worse than another is probably an on overestimation of our own knowledge. 這當然是最爭論不休的決定而我(作者)主張更積極的使用方式: 直接跳過關機然後讓他持續投到季後賽最後一場的掙扎並無法讓我去相信值得如此這樣做而且我相信是有其他的方法來監測他的投球負擔這樣可以讓他在球季中投的更長然而事實上不可避免的事實是有大多大多的變數了說一個選項是比較好或是壞很可能是高估了我們的智慧與知識 The secret to keeping pitchers healthy is still perhaps the biggest unknown entity in baseball, and our ability to predict which pitchers are going to stay healthy is not much better than simple dart-throwing. As more focus has shifted to the causes of physical breakdown, workload has gotten more than its fair share of attention, and efforts to avoid overuse have become far more commonplace in the last 10 to 15 years. However, even with this focus on responsible workloads, we haven’t seen a sea change in how often pitchers are getting hurt. 如何去保持投手的健康至今仍是最大的謎團我們去預測投手保持健康的能力事實上並不比射飛鏢來的好近10-15年都在注意避免過度使用投手但就實際情況我們並沒有發現投手更不容易受傷 Given that pitchers have different physical strengths and weaknesses, it’s likely that a one-size-fits-all approach isn’t all that useful, and what might be good for one pitcher could be bad for another. So, while we can say with some certainty that Strasburg would have been at a higher risk of injury if he would have thrown 250 innings this year rather than the 160 he actually threw, we don’t really know where he lies on the reasonable usage spectrum. You could probably make a case for any number between 160 and 250 and have a reasonable amount of evidence on your side that the total innings count wouldn ’t be significantly more harmful than any other number in that spectrum. And, with a knowledge gap that large, it’s just hard to have any kind of strong opinion about what the right number for Strasburg this season actually was. 每個投手的身體強度與弱點都不一樣使用同一標準並不是很有用的當我們說假設Strasburg今年投250局會比投160局來的更有受傷風險其實我們不知道也許可以去蒐集160-250局的投手數據然後有個合理的證據來證明投更多的局數其實不是真正影響投手受傷的原因接著 160-250的局數範圍也過大你也很難去找到這季正確關機Strasburg的局數 The Nationals obviously erred on the side of caution, giving their ace a number pretty close to the lower bound, and refusing to shift his starts around to maximize the leverage of those innings. They wanted to allow him to maintain his regular patterns, and again, this is an area where we simply don ’t know the effects of alternative options. There just isn’t much historical precedence for this kind of situation, and the uniqueness of each pitcher’s body limits what we could learn from earlier cases anyway. 國民隊明顯的對於Strasburg非常小心在低限度下就讓他關機而且不讓他再投更多局數國民想讓Strasburg保持平常的狀況但這又是一個領域我們基本上不知道這樣做有何效果我們並沒有太多的歷史資料可以來分析而且每位投手的體能都是獨一的這限制了我們的研究 So, the Nationals chose something like the most conservative usage path possible, but given how little is known about keeping pitchers healthy, their decision is certainly within the bounds of what one could consider reasonable. And, of course, health isn’t the only variable in play here. 所以在我們對保持投手健康極小的知識下國民隊做了最保守的方法 As we saw on Friday night, there is some evidence that Strasburg is currently somewhat less effective than he was earlier in the season, and perhaps a full season of pitching is starting to catch up with him to some degree. For instance, take a look at his PITCHF/x velocity chart: 當我們看星期五的比賽中有些跡象顯示Strasburg的表現比季初來的差我們來看看PITCHF/x的球速表 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Strasburg.png

While he has mostly maintained his average velocity throughout the summer, his peak velocity is down from earlier in the season. In May and early June, he was regularly getting up into the 98-99 range, but lately, he’s topped out at 96 or 97. It’s not a smoking gun, but given that velocity tends to increase as the season goes on, the fact that Strasburg’s fastest pitches have gotten a little bit slower suggest that there is some legitimacy to the idea that he’s beginning to wear down. 雖然Strasburg幾乎維持了他的火球球速但他的極速比之前下降一些在5月以及6月初球速是98-99 之後則是96-97 這似乎有個合理的解釋: Strasburg開始累了 There’s also some evidence of declining dominance in opposing batters swinging strike rates. In his first start of the season through July 15th — his first 18 outings — opposing batters only posted a swinging strike rate below 9% twice, and they were over 13% seven times. In his last 10 starts, however, he only posted a swinging strike rate over 9% five times, and only once got over 13%. His command also wasn’t as crisp as it was earlier in the year, as he walked three or more batters in a game four times in his last 10 starts after doing it four times in his first 18 starts. 另一個現象是Strasburg沒有像之前那樣的宰制對手在7/15前前18位出局數中的揮棒落空率有兩次低於9% 有7次則是高達13% 在最近的10場先發揮棒落空率有5次高過9% 但只有一次超過13% 另外他的控球也沒有像之前那麼精準最近10場有4場投出3次以上的BB 前18場中只有4次 Early season Strasburg was the most dominant pitcher in baseball, at least on a per-innings basis. Recent Strasburg has been more human, mixing in some good starts with some clunkers. If this trend was going to continue, it’s certainly possible that the gap between Strasburg and Ross Detwiler in October wouldn’t be so large that swapping them would result in a huge change in expected outcomes. In fact, you could argue that the outcome differences now aren’t even that large. 季初Strasburg是主宰比賽的投手但現在他比較像人類(幾場投很好幾場掙扎) 如果他持續這種表現那Strasburg跟Detwiler的差距就沒有之前那麼大 Strasburg’s posted a 2.82 xFIP this year, just about 1.50 runs per nine innings better than Detwiler this season. Strasburg’s posted higher than average BABIP and HR/FB rates, while Detwiler has been below average at both, so you might want to adjust that gap down slightly to account for the fact that there might be some difference in skills in those FDP areas. So, maybe the gap is 1.25 runs per nine innings instead. That’s certainly a big difference, but we also have to remember that October baseball is not the same as regular season baseball, and that managers can be much more aggressive in their bullpen usage in the playoffs. Given how deep Washington’ s relief corps is, it’s unlikely that either pitcher would be asked to go beyond six innings, and five is probably more likely against a good offensive opponent. So, instead of 1.25 runs, we’re probably dealing with something closer to 0.7 runs per start difference. Strasburg這季的xFIP是2.82 大概每九局比Detwiler多守住1.5分他的BABIP跟HR/FB高於平均而Detwiler則是低於平均調整以後兩者差距大概是1.25分事實上差距還是相當大但請記得季後賽跟普通球季不同教練通常會更加使用牛棚以國民隊的牛棚深度大概很難會讓先發投超過6局以每九局多失1.25分來看最後很可能是多失0.7分 And that’s using Strasburg’s full season line. If you think he’s wearing down, maybe he’s more of a 3.25 xFIP guy going forward, and that would push the difference more towards 0.5 runs per start. Don’t be fooled by those “ ERA since the All-Star break” graphics that say that there’s no drop-off here, but a half run gap isn’t overwhelming, especially if you think that the trade-off is getting a healthier Strasburg for the future. 如果使用Strasburg整季外加目前持續疲累的程度 xFIP可能是3.25 大概是每場多丟0.5分別被明星賽前後的ERA變化圖表給騙了 And then, of course, there’s the significant variance around player performance in small samples to begin with, and we’re not just talking Strasburg and Detwiler here. There’s a real chance that the playoff games that Strasburg would have pitched in wouldn’t have been close enough to be decided by the quality of the starting pitcher anyway. If we built a histogram of the potential outcomes of any Strasburg playoff start, there would be a tail on one end that represented a blowout by the Nationals, in which they could probably roll out any pitcher they wanted and still win the game. Likewise, there would be a tail on the opposite side of the spectrum that represented a dominating performance from the opposing starter so that even a great performance by Strasburg would still result in a loss. [這整段其實是廢話作者說季後賽樣本小變化很大小史可能會投不好交給其他投手說不定更會贏然後如果小史投的好也不一定會贏因為對方投更好...] The starting pitcher is an important factor in the end result of a ballgame, but it isn’t the deciding factor, and it’s certainly possible that the decision to use Detwiler instead of Strasburg ends up not having much of an effect on the Nationals playoff chase at all, simply due to outcomes that have nothing to do with the quality of each pitcher. Combine that with the volatility of projecting Strasburg going forward, the huge unknown that is pitcher injuries and reasonable workloads, and the fact that the Nationals do have a good team even when Strasburg’s not on the mound, this decision by the Nationals is certainly defendable. 雖說先發對比賽影響很大但不是決定性因素就算小史停機也對國民隊進軍季後賽的影響不大結合預測小史的外來表現,未知的受傷風險及合理的工作量將小史停機是相當合理的況且國民沒小史也是好球隊 It’s not the only defendable decision that they could have made, but this is an area where it just doesn’t make much sense to take a strong stance one way or another. There are so many unknowns that the best thing we can do is admit that we don’t know enough to have a strong opinion either way. The Nationals are doing what they think is in their franchises best interests, and they very well may be right. They may also be missing a chance to take a deep playoff run, and the reward that comes from that kind of run might be worth the extra risk. There are a lot of maybes here. When there are this many questions that we just don’t have the answers to, the best thing we can do is acknowledge where our limits are. On handling Stephen Strasburg, we just don’t know enough to say whether any one decision is better than another. The Nationals made a decision and stuck with it. That’s probably all they could have done. 有太多未知的事情導致我們無法做出最好的選擇國民也只是做出他們認為對球團最大的利益選擇而且他們很可能是對的他們或許會錯失一些打入WS機會這有可能超出所估計的額外風險但是有太多的如果與假設了我們能做的最好的事情就是知道我們的限制在哪在Strasburg的例子中我們無法說哪些是更好的決定至少國民隊做出了最終決定而且執行它 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 1.171.112.236

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