水手明年進季後賽的理由?

看板MLB作者abc12812時間14年前 (2011/10/24 19:49)推噓32(32推 0噓 18→)

留言50則, 39人參與討論串1/1

http://prospectinsider.com/view/the-m%27s-window-starts-now/?PHPSESSID=ae1b3355c8678a3b59768a804b0d9603 While the odds are certainly against them, there are reasons for Mariners fans to have optimism for the 2012 season. Here are a few reasons why we could all be watching postseason baseball at Safeco Field next fall. The pitching is really good Even with the losses of right-hander Doug Fister (traded to Detroit) and Erik Bedard (traded to Boston), the rotation should still be of a caliber that can take a team into the playoffs. There isn't a starting-pitcher in baseball I'd rather have than Felix Hernandez, and Michael Pineda was better than anyone could have hoped. Jason Vargas and Blake Beavan were adequate back-end starters and then some. There's also the possibility that either Danny Hultzen or James Paxton -- or possibly both -- contribute to the rotation next year, making it one of the most talented rotations in baseball. There are several reasons that Seattle might struggle in 2012, but the rotation isn't one of them. The bullpen had its most moments of frustration this past season, but the talent cannot be questioned. Outside of the disastrous series versus the Baltimore Orioles, Brandon League was as good a closer as there was in baseball. Right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen struggled early in the year, but by September it looked like the M's found their new answer for one of the late-inning roles. Add in talented right-handers Chance Ruffin, Josh Lueke and Dan Cortes -- with Stephen Pryor, Forrest Snow and Tyler Burgoon likely being ready to contribute soon -- there's the potential for a lights-out 'pen. David Aardsma could be a factor late in the year, too. It's also worth noting that GM Jack Zduriencik built the bullpen through trades and the club spent less money on their relief corps than all but four AL clubs in 2011. The offense is improving That may not be the general consensus, but it should be. The Mariners were a much better team in 2011 than 2010, and if you take away that pesky little 17-game losing streak -- and perhaps put them at 7-10 during that stretch -- it wasn't close. Even without major additions to the lineup, it is reasonable to expect more offensive production from every position but shortstop and catcher -- Brendan Ryan and Miguel Olivo are what they are -- lending the overall numbers a significant show if improvement, mostly due to further development of the young players. Last year, the Mariners had 2,716 plate appearances from non-pitchers who had an on-base percentage below .300. (Seriously) That essentially is 815 outs -- or 272 innings -- of anti-goodness, for lack of a better term. There just doesn't seem any way possible that such poor performances do not improve in 2012, which means there might be a lineup that can keep the team into games. Division regression We won't really know the answer to this question till winter, but there are major questions for all three of the division competitors next year. Texas may be losing its ace for the second straight year in free-agent-to-be C.J. Wilson, and while the lineup is still considerably better than the rest of the division, there are holes that need to be filled if they expect to win the division a third straight year. They'll also be asking Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and others to stay relatively healthy all season, something they have struggled to do in the past, including in 2011. The Los Angeles Angels have one of the better rotations in the American League, but there are far too many automatic outs in the lineup, and the Halos may not have the money to spend to acquire a big bat thanks to the albatross contract of Vernon Wells and the financial commitments to Torii Hunter and the pitching staff. The Oakland Athletics are similar to the M's -- they are led by solid pitching, including the potential for a top bullpen -- but they lack a young player with the offensive potential of Dustin Ackley, or Justin Smoak for that matter, and they don't have the means to acquire the necessary bats to allow them to compete for the division. Of the four, the A's would be the most surprising team to finish atop the AL West in 2012, barring a Billy Beane stroke of genius. And when was the last time we saw that? It happens It certainly isn't common, per se, but teams have jumped from worst to first from one year to the next. In fact, it happened just this past year with the Arizona Diamondbacks. How did the Diamondbacks do it? They did it with solid starting-pitching, defense and a reliable bullpen. Do the M's have that? Check, check, and check. The difference is the M's don't have the bat of a Justin Upton or Miguel Montero on their roster -- and the National League West is a train-wreck of a division. If you're looking for proof that worst-to-first occurs, however, look no further than Phoenix. The Tampa Bay Rays went from last place in 2007 to the World Series in 2008. The Minnesota Twins went from 74-88 and a last-place finish in 1990 to winning the World Series in 1991 -- over the Atlanta Braves, who won 65 games in 1990 and 94 the following season. As mentioned in the introduction, there's a lot of work to be done, and the most likely scenario is that the Seattle Mariners aren't competing for the division until 2013, at the earliest. With a little bit of luck, though, natural progression, regression from the rivals, and an off-season move or two, there is absolutely a non-zero chance that the Mariners are hoisting up a division championship banner come Opening Day 2013. While most analysts will suggest the M's are clearly two or three years away, there are too many examples to the contrary for fans -- and most importantly, the team itself -- to operate on such terms. The M's window of opportunity starts right now. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.109.64.137

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