Baseball won't go the way of the NBA

看板MLB作者時間13年前 (2011/03/01 13:20), 編輯推噓32(32053)
留言85則, 38人參與, 最新討論串1/1
http://tinyurl.com/6e2dzdz Much of the last week (if not, in fact, the past six months) has been devoted to wailing and gnashing about Carmelo Anthony and what his insistence to play for the Knicks means for the NBA. As a Cleveland fan, I'm certainly sensitive to the issue of elite players using their free agency leverage to engineer hand-picked “power” teams. Trust me, I've been there. Is this good for the NBA? Frankly, I don't care all that much. It's the NBA. I'll get by. More interesting to me is the question, “What does this mean for baseball?" To be honest, I don't think it means a damned thing. Baseball teams have been putting together collections of elite talent for the entire modern free-agency era, arguably since the end of the 19th century. Sure, there have been flurries of arguments against a high-budget team (usually the Yankees) putting together an unbeatable juggernaut at the expense of the so-called “little guys,” but this rarely materializes. I see a couple obvious factors here, and one surprising one. One obvious one is roster size. One player on an NBA roster makes up 20 percent of the team in play and about 8 percent of the whole team: In MLB, these numbers are more like 10 percent and 4 percent. If an NBA team gets three elite players, they make up 60 percent of the starting lineup, and probably play on the order of 50 percent of the total minutes. If the Phillies sign even as many as four elite starting pitchers, they still need a bullpen, offense, and defense. Another factor is that one elite player can have a disproportionate impact on a basketball game. Not only did LeBron James lead a team of role players to the NBA Finals in 2007, but the Detroit Pistons of the early-00's were the only team in recent memory (since 1980, say?) to win the Finals without having one of the five best players in the NBA on the squad. In contrast, not only did Felix Hernandez, good enough to win the Cy Young he deserved, not lead the Seattle Mariners to a winning record, he didn't do so while having Cliff Lee in the same rotation. That seems like another factor: Admittedly, I'm a much bigger baseball fan than NBA fan, but it just seems like there are more players in MLB that can be considered really excellent compared to their peers. (Of course, there are twice as many positions, too.) The surprising reason, however, might be at least partially explained by the salary cap (or lack thereof). There was no way for New Jersey to offer Anthony a different amount of money than New York. While Cleveland could offer James more money than any other team, it was only one more year, and the percentage difference was fixed. In contrast, the woeful Detroit Tigers were able to entice Ivan Rodriguez with what was considered a disproportionate offer at the time, and although such plans don't always bear fruit (Jayson Werth's deal with Washington comes to mind as the most recent example of one not likely to work), the Tigers did win the AL Pennant in 2006. Also, there are more ways to put together a playoff-caliber team in MLB, which is why we've seen teams like Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Texas, St. Louis, and Philadelphia in the World Series in recent years. The baseball playoffs are more susceptible to randomness, too: It's pretty rare for an NBA champion to be a team that pulled several upsets en route to their title. I'm not saying one sport is better than the other: You're here, so you probably share my opinion on the subject. But I'm pretty confident that while the NBA landscape might have been changed significantly for the foreseeable future, the MLB landscape looks pretty much unaffected by it. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.25.133

03/01 13:27, , 1F
水手又被抓出來舉例
03/01 13:27, 1F

03/01 13:42, , 2F
籃球跟棒球本質就差很多 棒球不確定因素太多 自然不像NBA
03/01 13:42, 2F

03/01 13:43, , 3F
有啥三巨頭或四巨頭 不然洋基早就十連霸了吧!!
03/01 13:43, 3F

03/01 14:15, , 4F
" " 真的沒差嗎?
03/01 14:15, 4F

03/01 14:22, , 5F
費城沒WSC的話
03/01 14:22, 5F

03/01 14:36, , 6F
同樣,棒球相對來講也比較不像籃球需要化學反應什麼鬼的
03/01 14:36, 6F

03/01 14:37, , 7F
比較不用擔心弄來一堆明星球員卻配不起來,不是嗎?
03/01 14:37, 7F

03/01 14:38, , 8F
棒球的每個play比較獨立 只有投手守備互相影響比較大
03/01 14:38, 8F

03/01 14:38, , 9F
休息室毒藥..
03/01 14:38, 9F

03/01 14:57, , 10F
voon:水手又被抓出來舉例
03/01 14:57, 10F

03/01 15:34, , 11F
可以大致解釋這篇在說什麼嗎?季後賽名額還是交易方面?
03/01 15:34, 11F

03/01 15:35, , 12F
棒球是打著團隊名號的自幹運動阿~籃球自幹能力強不一
03/01 15:35, 12F

03/01 15:36, , 13F
定能增加球隊勝率,但棒球卻不是
03/01 15:36, 13F

03/01 15:44, , 14F
我認為相反 籃球一個人強20*20+庇蔭隊友 棒球你會被BB*4
03/01 15:44, 14F

03/01 15:50, , 15F
你看看凱文愛跟灰狼勝率...
03/01 15:50, 15F

03/01 16:34, , 16F
若用 Love 舉例恐怕有爭議 他攻防都不是能罩全隊的那種
03/01 16:34, 16F

03/01 16:35, , 17F
我倒想聽聽棒球要如何靠自幹贏球~
03/01 16:35, 17F

03/01 16:41, , 18F
一朗表示:
03/01 16:41, 18F

03/01 16:53, , 19F
可能投手完投算是自幹吧 沒人會跟他搶球(誤..
03/01 16:53, 19F

03/01 17:08, , 20F
還是可以啦 Bonds 幾乎一個打全隊..
03/01 17:08, 20F

03/01 17:08, , 21F
不過故意用BB*4還是會沒辦法
03/01 17:08, 21F

03/01 17:14, , 22F
作者:身為騎士迷對"大咖揪團"敏感也是很正常的
03/01 17:14, 22F

03/01 17:16, , 23F
我的意思是籃球很講化學效應這東西 棒球卻非如此
03/01 17:16, 23F

03/01 17:17, , 24F
其實光看標題我本來以為要說NBA封館的事情
03/01 17:17, 24F

03/01 17:18, , 25F
棒球你每個位置都擺個只愛刷數據的球員還是能贏
03/01 17:18, 25F

03/01 17:18, , 26F
籃球呢?
03/01 17:18, 26F

03/01 17:24, , 27F
只愛刷數據的棒球員有這麼好找的嗎?
03/01 17:24, 27F

03/01 17:25, , 28F
只要是職業運動都是要講團隊效應的
03/01 17:25, 28F

03/01 17:26, , 29F
Putz: Ichiro只愛刷數據 沒有團隊精神
03/01 17:26, 29F

03/01 17:28, , 30F
棒球一場最少要10個人玩 籃球只需要5個
03/01 17:28, 30F

03/01 17:28, , 31F
看不懂你要表達什麼!?是你喜歡的NBA比MLB來的複雜!?
03/01 17:28, 31F

03/01 17:29, , 32F
棒球數據那麼好刷?! 我笑了
03/01 17:29, 32F

03/01 17:29, , 33F
事實上人數越多的球種越難預測
03/01 17:29, 33F

03/01 17:30, , 34F
籃球可以找人掩護 棒球的掩護不就是前後棒威力?
03/01 17:30, 34F

03/01 17:31, , 35F
真正到上場打擊還不是要靠自己真本事
03/01 17:31, 35F

03/01 17:33, , 36F
人數越多的越難預測 所以MLB一直比NBA難堵( ′-`)y-~
03/01 17:33, 36F

03/01 17:40, , 37F
可以問一下 棒球要怎麼刷數據嗎?
03/01 17:40, 37F

03/01 17:42, , 38F
棒球沒那麼複雜 大部分時間只有投手、捕手和打者三個人在玩
03/01 17:42, 38F

03/01 17:42, , 39F
但運氣成分較重 先發投手的狀況主宰大半勝負
03/01 17:42, 39F

03/01 17:47, , 40F
棒球是主審主宰大半勝負
03/01 17:47, 40F

03/01 17:52, , 41F
不要忽略捕手對棒球比賽的重要性
03/01 17:52, 41F

03/01 17:54, , 42F
籃球是裁判主宰九成勝負
03/01 17:54, 42F

03/01 17:56, , 43F
maxspeed150:可以問一下 棒球要怎麼刷數據嗎?
03/01 17:56, 43F

03/01 17:56, , 44F
Mark Eynolds:............................
03/01 17:56, 44F

03/01 17:57, , 45F
Mark Reynolds:..........................
03/01 17:57, 45F

03/01 18:03, , 46F
投手要故意刷勝投好像有個方法 別人先發四局 自己中繼兩局
03/01 18:03, 46F

03/01 18:03, , 47F
棒球怎麼刷數據? 一場差不多就4-5個PA 想多打都難
03/01 18:03, 47F

03/01 18:03, , 48F
打電動可以刷到單季50W以上
03/01 18:03, 48F

03/01 18:03, , 49F
嗯 三振數確實很好刷 狂揮大棒就行了
03/01 18:03, 49F

03/01 18:04, , 50F
工業風扇哥 這不叫刷數據 你例子舉錯了....
03/01 18:04, 50F

03/01 18:04, , 51F
投手一季拿35次GS就很屌了 也是有極限
03/01 18:04, 51F

03/01 18:05, , 52F
XDDDDDDDDDDDDD 刷三振還蠻屌的~~~這個的確簡單
03/01 18:05, 52F

03/01 18:12, , 53F
能刷三振紀錄但不被教練冰板凳的也不多吧...Reynolds表示:
03/01 18:12, 53F

03/01 18:14, , 54F
棒籃都有團隊成分在,但是攻擊上籃球比較有機會可以一人稱霸
03/01 18:14, 54F

03/01 18:15, , 55F
只要你能一人打五人體力無限自幹王,棒球就沒辦法了
03/01 18:15, 55F

03/01 18:15, , 56F
防守上籃球應該沒人可以一人守五人,投手也許可以完投完封
03/01 18:15, 56F

03/01 18:16, , 57F
但防守還是要靠隊友,即便能27K也得有捕手保證能接捕你的球
03/01 18:16, 57F

03/01 18:16, , 58F
可以解釋一下 什麼叫數據很好刷嗎( ′-`)y-~
03/01 18:16, 58F

03/01 18:29, , 59F
我打2K10生涯投手技能點滿沒辦法刷三振破單季紀錄QQ...
03/01 18:29, 59F

03/01 18:35, , 60F
籃球可以靠一個人自幹 棒球就算你在會轟都只有陽春砲打點
03/01 18:35, 60F

03/01 18:35, , 61F
也不會很多 而且籃球球可能都只會在幾個人手上但棒球每個
03/01 18:35, 61F

03/01 18:36, , 62F
人分配到的機會都差不多 4棒打的次數還會比1棒少
03/01 18:36, 62F

03/01 18:36, , 63F
而且隊友打擊太弱,還會一直被閃躲甚至IBB
03/01 18:36, 63F

03/01 18:48, , 64F
等到NBA有IBB制度再來講哪個比較偏個人吧...
03/01 18:48, 64F

03/01 18:52, , 65F
前面說刷數據的意思應該是,一堆打擊三圍數據好看的放進
03/01 18:52, 65F

03/01 18:53, , 66F
打線,不管怎樣就是會打的比較好,但籃球找5個平均得分
03/01 18:53, 66F

03/01 18:53, , 67F
20分的球員放在球隊裡面,不一定會比較好
03/01 18:53, 67F

03/01 19:07, , 68F
很簡單啊 棒球每個人的機會都平均且較獨立
03/01 19:07, 68F

03/01 19:08, , 69F
而籃球就有球權分配和戰術跑動等等因素
03/01 19:08, 69F

03/01 19:08, , 70F
有的人出手次數比較多 數據也會比較好看
03/01 19:08, 70F

03/01 19:09, , 71F
而棒球就頂多前後棒次掩護問題會影響好壞球比率
03/01 19:09, 71F

03/01 19:10, , 72F
實際上還是憑個人本事來擊球 不會有包夾露人空檔這種
03/01 19:10, 72F

03/01 19:11, , 73F
棒球要輪一輪才能打一次啊
03/01 19:11, 73F

03/01 19:11, , 74F
因為隊友而賺到的絕佳空檔 得分難易度大減
03/01 19:11, 74F

03/01 19:12, , 75F
在平均分配的打擊機會下你能夠打出什麼數據都是靠自己
03/01 19:12, 75F

03/01 19:13, , 76F
很少有所謂的進攻機會被隊友壓縮而數據不好看的問題
03/01 19:13, 76F

03/01 19:59, , 77F
無安打都可以輸球了 所以棒球真的太多團隊變數
03/01 19:59, 77F

03/01 20:00, , 78F
一朗表示:對不起,得分太少都是我自己跑太慢...
03/01 20:00, 78F

03/01 20:02, , 79F
無安打輸球是整個隊上都爛 籃球輸球可以怪誰出手太多
03/01 20:02, 79F

03/01 20:03, , 80F
無安打輸球還可以怪某某失誤 但會輸還是分數太少
03/01 20:03, 80F

03/01 20:11, , 81F
9個KOBE
03/01 20:11, 81F

03/01 20:19, , 82F
棒球九個可以線性疊加 籃球五個會有interaction 這樣>///<?
03/01 20:19, 82F

03/01 22:04, , 83F
有啦,不遵守教練下達觸擊然後安打就是刷數據不顧
03/01 22:04, 83F

03/01 22:04, , 84F
團隊的表現,不過僅限於國內職棒。
03/01 22:04, 84F

03/01 23:46, , 85F
棒球跟籃球也不是說哪種比較獨, 而是分工方式不同
03/01 23:46, 85F
文章代碼(AID): #1DR88RBN (MLB)