Re: [閒聊] 小組賽可能的POOL3分組
※ 引述《swbthj (swbthj)》之銘言:
: 餓死抬頭
: 入圍賽結果目前極有可能是WE、C9、FB、FNC/HKA(這組難猜一點 FNC機率高一些)
: 照這樣來看的話
: WE只能去BD
: C9只能去AC
: FB除了B都能去
: 假設是FNC晉級則只能去AB
: 那麼ABCD依次可能是 FNC、WE、C9、FB
: C9、FNC、FB、WE
: FB、FNC、C9、WE
因為還有分組規則的關係, WE分到B組不是1/3那麼單純
假設按照A,B,C,D的順序,WE分到B組的前提是前兩抽被抽到。
WE到B組的機率應該是 1/4+3/4*1/3=50%
D->50%
: 若HKA晉級
: HKA只能去BC
: 則ABCD依次可能是 C9、WE、HKA、FB
: C9、HKA、FB、WE
: FB、HKA、C9、WE
同理,假如HKA晉級, WE分到B組 1/4+2/4*1/3~=41% 還要多扣掉第一抽,抽到hka的機率
D組 59%
宇宙MMD是不是在祈禱HKA被淘汰...
有錯請大家幫忙指證。
: 總結一下,C9、FB和HKA晉級後不管去哪都是死路一條(1個是歹運,2個是實力問題)
: WE還是比較有可能去D組
: FNC晉級後去B組還有機會走更遠
: 大GUY4這樣,有錯誤歡迎指正
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