[外電] 尼克暑期的財務報表
這篇真是靠盃長的，但是我想這應該有助於釐清大家對薪資的疑惑跟預測?...或至少對我
有幫助啦...我大部分都只是簡譯，也希望我沒有理解錯誤...
http://tinyurl.com/btksehv
If you thought dissecting the collective bargaining agreement and a team's
spending cans and cannots were tricky, you're definitely not the only one. In
fact, as one veteran NBA journalist put it, "It's a minefield. Even GMs call
the league and say, 'Can I do this?'"
Now that the Knicks' season is in the books, what are their options when the
free-agency period starts July 1? ESPN New York's Jared Zwerling consulted
with NBA salary cap expert Larry Coon to get the answers you need and more.
For starters, the Knicks are currently $5.6 million under the league-mandated
$58.044 million salary cap. (On July 1, if the cap stays the same, which it
likely will, they will be $5.65 million over.) Currently, the main players
under contract for next season include: Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire,
Tyson Chandler, Iman Shumpert and Toney Douglas. In addition, J.R. Smith has
a player option of $2.443 million, Josh Harrellson has a team option of
$762,195, Jerome Jordan has a non-guaranteed salary of $762,195 and while
Renaldo Balkman cleared waivers this past season, he's still owed some salary
that counts against the cap. The team's restricted free agents are Jeremy Lin
and Landry Fields, and the unrestricted pool includes: Steve Novak, Baron
Davis, Jared Jeffries, Mike Bibby, Bill Walker and Dan Gadzuric.
Looking ahead to the offseason, the key moves for the team include Smith's
opt in or out, potentially re-signing Fields, using their mid-level exception
of about $3 million (taxpayer) or of about $5 million (non-taxpayer),
potentially using their bi-annual exception of $1.98 million and then
spending a couple of veteran's minimums of $1.4 million each. Their biggest
hurdle will be deciding which amount of their mid-level exception to give to
Lin.
Here's the full breakdown:
J.R. SMITH
Smith has a player option of $2.443 million for next season, which he can opt
out of. The Knicks will know by July 1 if he's going to do so. If he does,
that means the team will still be above the cap ($3.157 million), and they
won't gain anything. That $2.443 million is not extra money that actually
exists in order for the team to sign someone else.
Even if Smith opts out, the Knicks could re-sign him for a 20 percent raise
based on his $2.382 million salary from this past season. That's enabled by
the Non-Bird Exception, which would put him at $3.097 million for 2012-13. A
source told ESPN New York that Smith's father, Earl, is going to make a
strong case for his son to stay in New York, but "it's very clear that the
money is the biggest factor with him."
In fact, when Smith chose the Knicks over the Clippers in mid-February after
coming back from China, a source said the Knicks' higher offer ($2.443
million to the Clippers' $1.4 million veteran's minimum) was the deciding
factor because he was financially broke. Therefore, Smith will likely opt out
and ask for the 20 percent raise. At that point, the ball will be in the
Knicks' court to re-sign Smith, who's already said publicly that he wants to
return next season.
簡述: 即使JR離開，尼克也頂多少$2.4M，而且也還是會高於cap $3.1M，尤其那
多出來的2.4M也不見得額外多簽誰。如果尼克要簽回他，基於NB exception，可以加薪
20%。JR的爸爸希望他留在紐約，但是據悉當初JR會加入尼克就是因為錢的因素，所以如果
JR真的會回來尼克，可能的做法就是跳出再跳進。
JEREMY LIN
During the lockout negotiations, the league wanted additional spending
restrictions to be placed on all tax-paying teams. But the players' union
managed to wrest one concession in the final labor settlement: those
restrictions wouldn't be triggered once a team is above the tax line. As a
result, the owners gave teams a little extra breathing room. They defined a
point $4 million above the tax line, which they call the "apron," where those
restrictions kicked in. With an anticipated $70 million tax level, the apron
will come in around $74 million this summer.
One of the restrictions placed on teams above the apron was the smaller
mid-level exception of about $3 million, while teams under the apron could
have the larger mid-level exception of about $5 million. Since a team above
the apron can't offer more than $3 million in a mid-level contract, the
converse is also true: a team that offers more than $3 million in a mid-level
contract can't subsequently exceed the apron.
The consequences are potentially devastating for teams with payrolls below
the apron. If a team spends more than $3 million of its mid-level exception,
then the apron becomes a hard cap for the remainder of the season. If you're
a General Manager trying to assemble a winning roster, "hard cap" is an ugly,
ugly phrase.
Keeping that in mind, the Knicks are in a unique situation regarding their
mid-level exception -- and it's all because of Lin, a restricted free agent.
While the Knicks can sign him to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of
about $3 million or below, anything above that would create a hard cap. Lin
is likely going to demand his maximum of about $5 million for two main
reasons: 1.) While he may not have that much basketball value right now,
teams will be drawn to bringing Linsanity to their city; and 2.) Because
other teams are going to know that the Knicks will be hard-capped if Lin
re-signs for $3 million or more, they'll press them to match at about $5
million.
If the Knicks do, they'll still be able to re-sign him because he's a
restricted free agent. In fact, because he has that status, the Knicks and
Lin could agree to an offer sheet even before other teams bid for his
services. And the Knicks can match any number because of the Gilbert Arenas
provision, which prevents other teams from offering too much.
Currently, the Knicks are below the apron, so they'll be hoping and praying
that Lin signs an offer sheet for $3 million or less. If the Knicks keep Lin
at that amount (and they don’t use their bi-annual exception), they won't be
capped at $74 million, and they can later go above the apron. Therefore, they
could make trades that take on lots of additional salary, but they will still
have to pay tax if their team salary is above the tax line (no transactions
exempt a team from potentially paying tax).
While Lin's agent, Roger Montgomery, will have a fiduciary responsibility to
his client to get him the best deal possible, he'll know the eventual suitor
will be the Knicks. Therefore, Montgomery could ask Lin to do the Knicks a
favor and take $2 million less and sign for about $3 million, in order to
give the team salary-cap flexibility. By staying in New York, Lin would be
make up the difference off the court by being a hot name in the No. 1 media
market. What Montgomery will have to watch out for is the Knicks saying,
"Sign with us for $3 million and we'll promise to take care of you later."
It's that promise to take care of you later that gets teams into trouble.
Now, keep this in mind: While the Knicks need to use their mid-level
exception to re-sign Lin, they don't have to use it on Lin. They can spend it
on anyone. For example, they could let him walk in order to sign unrestricted
free agent Steve Nash, who's reportedly going to demand $3 to $5 million per
year, or Goran Dragic, who will likely be in the same ballpark.
But, again, anything more than $3 million will set a hard cap on the Knicks.
If that happens, they won't have any flexibility to make any offseason or
in-season moves (signs, trades, replacing an injured player, etc.) that
leaves them above the $74 million threshold. For example, let’s say they
have a team salary of $68 million after signing Lin, or about $6 million
below the hard cap. They could make a trade (provided all other trade rules
are satisfied) that adds up to $6 million to their payroll. But they couldn’
t make a trade that adds $7 million.
Whatever the case, all signs point to Lin being a Knick. As one source
familiar with his situation put it, "He's going to be in New York next year
regardless, unless they decide they're not going to match him because Nash is
going to come in at $5 million or something like that. But Nash is a pipe
dream. I think that they keep Lin, just because of his popularity."
As for the length of Lin's contract, the Knicks have the option of making it
four years. (It could actually be three years with a player option on the
fourth.) Teams tend to lock up players who are fairly cheap, but are still a
big part of their future and have the potential to progress quickly in only
half of that four-year window.
簡述: 今夏預測的tax level應該是70M，lockout時勞資協議的結果是，如果此隊已經高於
此限，最後一線生機將是大約4M的"apron"空間。而mid-level exception錢的多寡將決定
於這隊是否已經花超過apron，也就是74M。如果是，MLE就只剩3M，若否，那就可以有5M。
換言之，隊伍要先決定他們的MLE，才能期待有apron的空間。所以如果任何人簽超過3M的
MLE，尼克都會under hard-capped。林的經紀人可能可以說服林留下，並以廣告收入彌補，
MSG可能會跟經紀人談好條件，類似於"跟我簽3M，我會照顧好之後的一切"，但類似於這樣
的承諾常常讓球隊陷入麻煩 (這到底是啥意思?) 另外，其他隊伍也知道尼克的財務狀況，
所以他們也會想辦法推尼克入火坑，就是強迫尼克match林的deal。所以到頭來，如果尼克
先跟林交涉過了，而林也願意以3M加盟，那對尼克就是再好不過的情形了。而以球隊的角
度，尼克可能會跟林簽四年，趁他還便宜時，然後第四年是player's option。
LANDRY FIELDS
If the Knicks re-sign Lin to the full mid-level exception of about $5
million, that means they'll be hard-capped and only have about $9 million
left to spend, which begs the question: Do they want to spend $5 million of
that remaining amount on Fields? Even if another team matches the Knicks'
offer sheet, they have Early Bird Rights on him, which sets the $5 million
ceiling. (In comparison, Lin has Non-Bird Rights rights, which is why the
Knicks need to use the mid-level exception to keep him.)
However, if Lin and Fields re-sign for $3 and $5 million, respectively, the
Knicks won't be constrained by the hard cap (based on the lower mid-level
exception). They can re-sign Fields, secure veteran free agents and make
trades to bring in someone who's more expensive. In other words, they can go
above the apron.
But, again, it all comes back to that $5 million for Fields, and some
insiders just don't see the value there. One source familiar with Fields'
situation said, "I doubt Landry's worth $5 million, but you never know. When
teams try to sign restricted free agents, they sometimes have to over-pay
just in order to make the other team let him go. So I could see Landry
getting a bigger deal because of that -- not so much because he's worth that
much right now as a basketball player, but because he can walk."
As for the length of Fields' contract, it could be the same as Lin's. Also
like Lin, because Fields is a restricted free agent, he and the Knicks could
agree to an offer sheet even before other teams bid for his services. In
addition, the Knicks can match any salary number because of the Gilbert
Arenas provision.
By the way, if you're wondering if the $5 million maximum for Fields can be
used for anyone else (like Nash), it can't because of the Early Bird Rights
provision. So, again, only the mid-level exception can be used for Lin, Nash
or Dragic -- the three most popular picks at starting point guard heading
into the summer.
簡述: 如果尼克花5M的MLE在林，尼克就只剩下9M，尼克會想花5M在LF身上嗎? 跟林一樣的
是LF也是限制球員，所以尼克可以先跟他談好條件，這樣也避免跟其他隊競爭。尼克如果用
5M簽他，考量的可能是之後可以用來當交易的籌碼，其他隊最高就用5M競價，瞄準的是尼克
會放手，當然也是要某支隊伍願意出這價碼。簡而言之，尼克可以match但是LF的薪水還是
會算在薪資空間中。
IMAN SHUMPERT
If Shumpert was going to be out until June 30 of next year (based on a
doctor's certification), the Knicks could apply for a disabled player
exception, which would mean they could sign someone to replace the rookie at
his salary. But Shumpert will likely be back on the court in December or
January. Keep in mind, however, that if the Knicks were hard-capped (based on
the apron), they couldn't use that kind of exception.
簡述: 如果Shump在明年六月底後才能回來，尼克就可以用disabled player exception
簽跟Shump同價碼的人來代替他。但目前看來Shump會在12月或1月回來，而且這個exception
如果尼克已經hard-capped了，就不能用了。
BI-ANNUAL EXCEPTION
The Knicks have a bi-annual exception of $1.98 million, which could be used
for Novak, who's an unrestricted free agent. (However, he'll likely demand
more because he emerged as the league's best 3-point shooter.) Even if the
team re-signs Lin to $3 million or higher, and the $74 million apron becomes
a hard cap for them, they'd still have the bi-annual exception. But then they
definitely can't go above the apron. Keep in mind that if they spend their
bi-annual exception first, they would be capped at the apron -- just like
they would if they spent $3 million or more with their mid-level exception.
簡述: BA exception跟MLE是同樣的運作狀況，只要用了全額，隊伍就不能超過apron，
全額MLE跟BAE可以一起使用，但是重點就是不能超過apron。目前最有可能的對象就是
Novak了。
PREDICTED NUMBERS
Currently, the Knicks are about $6 million above the salary cap, which means
they're about $9 million under the apron. If Smith opts out and the Knicks
don't re-sign him, they'll be about $11.5 million under the apron. If they
re-sign Lin for about $5 million, they'll be about $7.5 million under the
apron, which would then create the hard cap.
Then, if Fields re-signs for about $5 million as well, the team will only
have about $3 million under the apron to spend on three players. Think about
that. About $3 million, three players. Veteran minimum's deals could suck
that right up.
That mid-level exception is more critical than you ever thought. From the
season to the offseason, Lin still remains right at the top of the Knicks'
discussion. If you're a fan of the team, you should be rooting for him to
sign for $3 million or less.
簡述: 目前尼克超過cap 6M，意謂著他們離apron只剩 9M。如果JR離開，那就剩11.5M。
如果林拿5M，最後他們就剩7.5M。如果LF也拿5M，那就剩不到3M，隨便一個老鳥就會把他
吃光。結論: 如果你是尼克粉，那就期待林願意拿3M吧。
------------------------------------------------------------------------
心得: 所以林的狀況看起來就是要不要罷了。JR的情況比較像是如果有明顯勝出的deal，
他就會離開 (我不曉得他之前幾近破產?)，LF的狀況應該是要看尼克怎麼評量他的價值，
比較多的人看到的是他從Melo來之後就一蹶不振，而尼克會簽他照這樣看來要嘛就是價格
OK，要嘛就是要拿他當籌碼，但是以球員的角度，為求自己的保障，說不定換個球隊會比
較好?
(希望我沒有翻錯...)
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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