Re: [外電] Top 50: Kevin Martin, no. 41

看板Kings作者RonArtest93 (新阿泰)時間14年前 (2009/09/09 21:44)推噓20(20推 0噓 52→)

留言72則, 15人參與討論串2/3 (看更多)

※ 引述《eliczone (C'est la vie)》之銘言： : http://0rz.tw/RuB6G : ======================================================================== : 這篇論點很有趣，很值得一看: ======================================================================== : Alright, Let’s start out by playing one of these games. (TS=”True Shooting, : ” a FG% stat that takes threes and free throws into effect, TO=”Turnover : Rate,” the percentage of a player’s possessions that end in a turnover.) 首先先介紹TS=”True Shooting的定義給大家只算三分球命中率跟罰球命中率的FG% 還有TO=Turnover Rate的定義一個球員在一次對戰組合內會發生失誤做結的機會稱之Turnover Rate : Player A: 24.6 PPG/3.6 RPG/2.7 APG/60% TS/11% TO/38 MPG : Player B: 25.3 PPG/6.5 RPG/2.8 APG/58% TS/11% TO/39 MPG : Related StoriesGame Notes: Kings at Pistons : Game Notes: Kings at Warriors : Top 50: Baron Davis, no. 43 : Post Up: Warriors Outlasting : Top 50: OJ Mayo, no. 46 : Player A is the subject of this writeup and #41 on SLAM’s list, Mr. Kevin : Martin. Player B is Kevin Durant. (Spoiler alert: Durant is a good bit higher : than this on SLAM’s list.) Now, before I ruffle any feathers, Durant is a : lot younger than Martin, and has only been in the league for two years, has a : ton more upside left while Martin seems to have just about topped out, and : has a much more intriguing collection of tools. And Martin only played in 51 : games last year. But look at those numbers again. There’s no cherry-picking : in there (in fact, +/- based statistics are much less favorable to Durant), : and apart from rebounding the numbers are nearly identical. Player A: 24.6 PPG/3.6 RPG/2.7 APG/60% TS/11% TO/38 MPG Player B: 25.3 PPG/6.5 RPG/2.8 APG/58% TS/11% TO/39 MPG Player A 的數據是KM player B的數據是Kevin Durant ok,當我開始分析之前我要先聲明 Durant比KM年輕很多而且看起來比較有較大的進步空間而且有比較多的資料能收集不像KM去年只打了51場比賽但總的來說這些數據看看就好不要盡信 (事實上分析Durant的話單看 +/-這個數據並不適合他) 而且上述兩人的數據並沒有涉及籃板能力的部分 : So why is Kevin Durant who he is and Kevin Martin who he is? Well, on just : about every possible level, Durant is a more traditionally appealing player. : His college pedigree is worlds more exciting, he’s the cornerstone of an : exciting young franchise, he was a #2 overall pick, his skill-set and size : are nearly unprecedented, and he’s fundamentally a gorgeous player to watch. : Meanwhile, Martin spent three years at Western Carolina University, often wasn : ’t acknowledged as the best player on some atrocious Kings teams, and looks : like he should be on a high school freshman team. 所以要怎麼知道KM跟DURANT的打球風格哩? 恩這麼說好了 DURANT比較接近傳統型的球員他在大學有顯赫功績進入聯盟就被期待為超級新星而且他的身材與技巧的結合是史無前例的他是個可看性非常高的明星級球員 KM呢? 他在小校 Western Carolina University渡過三年然後現在在爛隊國王擔任山大王然後外表看起來像個會打球的高中生罷了 : But more than anything, Martin’s game is just, for lack of a better word, : weird. And not Lamar Odom “I scoff at your notion of positions” cool-weird; : Martin’s game is just funky to look at. He’s obviously not very physically : imposing, isn’t very explosive at all, doesn’t have a slick handle, doesn’ : t really even appear to have go-to moves from midrange, and he has a bizarre, : left-leaning jumper. With his wonky game and his pedestrian 42% field goal : percentage, it’s easy to miss just how amazingly good of a scorer Martin is. : Martin, along with Durant, might be the best pure scorer in the game in terms : of combining scoring volume with scoring efficiency. Martin seldom explodes : for a gigantic scoring night, but his 23.2 points per game last year was good : for 6th in the league, the same spot he occupied in 2007-08. 但是KM的比賽可能不是大家想的那麼簡單不似Lamar Odom所說的 "我鄙視專家興風做浪搖擺不定的立場" KM是真的有些特別的東西可以研究他沒有什身體上的優勢打法也不太具有侵略性沒有花俏的運球沒有在中距離隨心所欲得分的腳步但他有奇怪的向左橫移跳投平淡的命中率42% 還有不是每場有贏球把握的內容這些都會讓人輕易的忽略掉他驚人的得分能力 KM與DURANT 也許是這個聯盟兩大得分最有效率的純得分手 KM少有每晚砍下40~50分的時刻但他卻可以連兩年穩居得分排行榜的前幾傑 : But it’s Martin’s True Shooting, the best indicator of scoring efficiency : available, that’s really incredible- his 60% TS last season is almost : unprecedented for someone who scores as much as he does. Even more amazingly, : that mark was Martin’s lowest TS since his rookie season, and a big step : down from his last two seasons, when he recorded marks of 61.4% and 61.8%. : Overall, Martin has the 2nd-highest career TS among all active players, : trailing only Brent Barry. KM的 True Shooting 這個數據是測量得分手得分效率的最好指標 KM在這個項目得到了史無前例的 60% TS 沒有人比他更好而且這是他生涯倒數第二差的數據整體來說他的生涯TS統計排名在NBA目前所有現役球員的第二名僅次於BRENT BARRY : To be completely clear: 60% TS for a #1 option is INSANE. LeBron’s never : cracked 60%. Neither has Kobe, whose career high is 58% and average is 56%. : Wade’s never done it. The last season MJ did it was the 1990-91 campaign. : Martin is a great scorer not because of superior skills but through a : carefully crafted strategy to get points in the most efficient way possible. : In a lot of ways, the best comparison for Martin isn’t a basketball player : at all, but baseball’s Adam Dunn. Dunn is an athletically unexciting player : with some serious holes in his game, but he’s a stat geek darling because of : his ability to focus his hitting approach on hitting home runs and drawing : walks-he’s long been one of the most statistically effective hitters in : baseball despite his career batting average of .250. : Martin, as was mentioned, only had a field goal percentage of 42% last : season, but is a ridiculously efficient scorer because of his focus on two of : the most efficient ways to get baskets possible-from beyond the arc and at : the free-throw line. 講明白點要達到的60% TS 是 " 非人哉 " LBJ生涯沒有一年的TS超過60% KOBE也沒有生涯最高58% 平均是56% WADE也沒有60%過喬神最後一次達到是在1990-91賽季之後就沒拿過 KM為人稱到的原因就是他沒有超強的技巧去得分但卻可以超聰明的方式去得分也許在籃球場上找不到一個跟他相似的比較對象而要到棒球場上去找那個同樣特別的人就是Adam Dunn Dunn看上去也是個不甚起眼的傢伙但卻是個專注在長打上以及高上壘率的數據怪傑 KM在籃球上同樣是個怪咖命中率只有42%但可以靠著罰球取得分數他有著各種在外圍的籃的手段 : First, the threes. Most high-volume scorers in the NBA shoot many more : mid-range jumpers than three-pointers, because it’s much easier to get a : good look from midrange than three-point range when you’re the focus of an : offense. However, statistically speaking, three-point jumpers are almost : universally more efficient than mid-range jumpers, to a degree that would : astound most fans. Jason Terry led the league last year by making 49.2% of : his mid-range jumpers; effectively, that percentage is the equivalent of : shooting 32.8 from beyond the arc, which is right around where Nate Robinson : and Stephen Jackson shot from deep last season. So, over time, shooting : threes is almost always a more efficient play than shooting midrange jumpers, : but most players who score as much as Martin end up shooting a much higher : proportion of mid-range jumpers than threes: : Dirk Nowitzki: 74% of overall attempts from midrange/10% of attempts from : three : Kobe Bryant: 59%/19% : Dwayne Wade: 49%/15% : Chris Paul: 59%/14% : Kevin Durant: 56%/16% : Brandon Roy: 48%/16% : Carmelo Anthony: 50%/14% 再來談到三分球大多數的NBA得分手比較擅長於中距離多過三分球因為在中距離投球時你的視野會比投三分時好然而數據呈現的是三分球的得分會比中距離來的更有效率講的更深入一點球迷們會更吃驚 JASON TERRY有著去年聯盟最高的49.2%中距離命中率這個數據相等於Nate Robinson或Stephen Jackson在三分的投籃命中率 32.8% 所以可以映證投三分的效率會比投中距離好但是跟KM一樣的得分好手還是選擇在中率離出手多於三分出手的得分方式舉幾個例子 Dirk Nowitzki 74%中距離投籃 10% 三分球投籃以此類推 Kobe 59% 19% Wade 49% 15% CP3 59% 14% Durant 56% 16% Roy 48% 16% Melo 50% 14% : In contrast, Martin’s ratio of midrange jumpers to threes is 45%/34%. Among : high-volume wing scorers, really only Danny Granger has that kind of split, : with a 42%/35% proportion of mid-range jumpers to threes. Taking such a high : proportion of threes, and making them at an impressive 41.5% clip (the : equivalent of shooting 62% from midrange), is one reason why Martin is a much : more efficient scorer than anybody realizes. : But as nice as the threes are, the key to Kevin Martin’s effectiveness is : definitely his incredible ability to draw fouls. Martin was fouled on an : unbelievable 21% of his field goal attempts last season; Only Dwight Howard, : Marc Gasol, Shaq, Gerald Wallace, and Devin Harris were fouled at a higher : rate. (LeBron was at 19%, Wade was at 17%, Roy was at 14%, Durant was at 13%, : and Bryant was at 12%, for some points of reference.) 相對而言 KM的出手比例是 45% 中距離 34%三分球大概全聯盟只有Danny Granger跟他是類似的出手習慣 (42%/35%) KM如此高的三分球出手比例並且三分命中率達到41.5% 相當於在中距離有62%的命中率這是一個為什麼會說KM是現役球員中最有效率的得分手的原因但是還有跟這個一樣讓人吃驚的就是他賺犯規的能力去年他賺取的犯規出手數佔他整體出手比例的21% 只有魔獸小GASOL 大歐 GWA 這四個球員高過於他 (其他得分後衛比他低的後面一票就不列了) : Again, there’s absolutely nothing pretty about this part of Martin’s : game-he goes past his man and drives directly into a defender near the : basket, his 185-pound frame goes flying, and he gets the benefit of a : whistle. Some think of it as boring, others think of it as downright : underhanded, but the fact is that it’s an extremely effective way to put : points on the scoreboard. Of course, the joke of the thing is that Martin isn : ’t even that great of a finisher if he doesn’t get fouled-he only made 47% : of his layups last season, and only got 3.4 points per game on “inside” : shots, while he got a full 9 points per game from the line. (A word of : advice-if the Kings manage to get good in the near future and play your : favorite team in a big game, put away all heavy objects, full bottles, : significant others, or anything you find valuable. Kevin Martin will drive : you absolutely insane. You will think the refs are absolutely insane that : night. But realize that Martin gets those calls every single night, by : design.) 要再次強調的是 KM並沒有很強的切入去過防守者他只有185磅他靠的是他輕盈的無球跑動打法有人覺得這種打法太難登大雅以及難看但事實上這是要得分的話最好的手段事實上很多人以此嘲笑KM 因為他在籃下的平均得分只有3.4分甚至比他上罰球線的分數差的很遠 (9 分 ) 並且如果他不靠賺犯規的話上籃只有47%的命中率 (給國王高層的建議請不要理會那些建言及批評如果真的爲球隊的未來著想的話 KM絶對在未來會讓人意想不到也許賺犯規要看裁判心情但是KM顯然每晚都讓裁判心情不錯:) ) : The ability to draw fouls is a lot like the ability to draw walks in : baseball-it’s unexciting, nobody really keeps track of it seriously, and : fouls are seen as just as much of a mistake by the defense as a product of : offensive skill. But it’s an important, even vital, skill in the NBA, and it : often separates the good scorers from the chuckers. And nobody has mastered : the undignified art of drawing contact in the NBA like Kevin Martin. : However, there is a downside to Martin’s offbeat effectiveness. Martin, as : much as anyone else in the NBA, has turned efficient individual scoring into : an absolute science. But basketball isn’t baseball, and can’t be broken : down into individual matchups as easily. There’s a reason most scorers don’ : t base their games around threes and free throws; it’s almost impossible to : get other players involved in the offense when the #1 option is shooting from : beyond the arc, thus shooting before the defense has to adjust, or trying to : draw a foul, where the goal is to go directly into the adjusting defense. : Martin’s passing stats reflect this; his career assist % (defined by : basketball-reference.com as the percentage of a teammate’s field goals a : player assisted while he was on the floor) is an abysmal 10.3%, which is : almost unheard of from a perimeter player who has the ball in his hands as : much as Martin does. 賺犯規有點像棒球的賺四壞保送一樣不怎麼讓人興奮沒有人了解賺犯規的重要大家都把會犯規當成是防守方犯的錯誤但是這很重要是個能在NBA生存的重要技能而且是判斷這個球員是否是個好得分手的標準而且目前NBA沒有人像KM這樣如此把這項技能視為一門專業在訓練的這項技藝正在消失中籃球跟棒球有本質上的不同以籃球來說在一個對陣中允許失敗的容忍度較小這也是為什麼大家會捨棄大量三分出手跟大量賺取犯規出手要一個以外圍投籃維生的球員同時要兼顧到讓其他隊友參與進攻這幾乎不太可能因為外圍射手因應對方的防守所做出的改變例如賺取犯規等等動作其最終目的是要靠近籃框得分當此目標已確定時就不太有多餘的心力去組織隊友進攻 KM的助攻數據應證了這一點根據統計他的助攻率是遭透的10.3% 這以一個球對外圍主攻手而言是個前所未聞的數字 : In my last one of these, we considered the riddle of Baron Davis, who can : lead a very good team and can change the flow of a 10-man game with the best : of them, but struggles mightily when asked to play a one-on-one game. Martin : is the opposite paradox: what do you do with a player who doesn’t have the : skills that offenses are built around, but is way, way too good to be : considered a role player? In a perfect world, Martin would come off the : bench, where it wouldn’t be a problem that Martin was taking shots away from : the other 4 players on the floor with him. However, Martin’s just too good : for that; an offense of Kevin Martins would have been the most efficient : offense in the league last season. (By the way, all of this applies to Kevin : Durant, whose assist statistics are just as bad as Martin’s and is also a : perimeter player who is the cornerstone of an offense.) 可以拿Baron Davis比較看看就知道 BD是個打五打五的贏家但是叫他一打一卻會相對吃力許多 KM則是相反如果你球隊先發五人之一你要如何跟一個看起來像角色球員得分技巧不甚傳統但是卻是得分王的人配合? 最好的方法就是把他放到板凳出發讓他跟其他四個得分相對不強的板凳球員配合無論如何他都是那個全聯盟去年得分效率最高的球員 (DURANT跟他極為相似他的助攻率也跟KM一樣低也是一個以外線出手為主的球員) : It’s really unprecedented for an effective offense to be built around a : perimeter player as passing-adverse as Martin-Kobe’s career assist % is, at : 23.6%, more than double Martin and Durant’s, and MJ’s career assist : percentage is 24.9%. And they played in the triangle, where they were less : responsible for creating shots for others than most #1 perimeter options. To : find the last instance of something like this working, you have to go all the : way back to the days of Dominique Wilkins and Bernard King, and the game’s : changed a lot since then. Durant, with his more traditional game, still has a : chance to grow into someone who can create enough opportunities for others to : build an effective offense around; with Martin’s reliance on the three and : the free-throw line, I’m not sure how it’s going to be possible. : So there’s Kevin Martin. He’s a lot better than most people think he is, : and I mean a whole lot better, but he also probably doesn’t quite have the : impact on a game that his numbers say he should. KOBE的助攻率生涯有 23.6% 是KM跟DURANT加起來的總合喬神的也有24.9% , MJ 跟 KOBE都是打三角所以他們並非要把投籃當成第一選擇可以發展其他項目要找到跟KOBE MJ相似的組合應該可以回顧一下 Dominique Wilkins 跟 Bernard King帶起的籃球打法的改變至於DURANT跟KM這兩個變種生物呢? DURANT仍然可以預期會成長成那種傳統型球員自己得分同時創造機會給隊友 KM目前倚賴大量的三分跟罰球的打法我不看好他能變成那樣的球員這是KEVIN MARTIN 一個比你想像中好很多的好球員但是可能又沒有像他數據所呈現的那樣像是對比賽有很大影響力的球員 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.224.26.62

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felmizan

09/09 21:52, , 1^F

09/09 21:52, 1^F

※ 編輯: RonArtest93 來自: 61.224.26.62 (09/09 22:00)

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GodEyes

09/09 22:04, , 2^F

09/09 22:04, 2^F

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santabrelai

09/09 22:06, , 3^F