[閒聊] U醬到底在哪裡?-統計データベース 篇
Pixiv id=50117823
新手如我錯過了冬活,錯過了天城,錯過了香取…更錯過了U-511。
如今,春活又有機會相遇U-511,但不知何年何月何日才遇得到…
於是有點空閒(X)、資源大破(O)的我利用「艦これ統計データベース」
來計算「E-6王點S勝時,U醬到底有多少機率能撈到呢?」
首先以E-6王點的金剛為例,
總掉落艦數=2880
S勝掉落艦數=2571
A勝掉落艦數= 309
推得S勝時掉金剛的機率=5.23%*(2571/2880)=4.67%
同理,將王點其他所有掉落艦代入同樣的算法,可得下表:
http://i.imgur.com/SK7EjiH.jpg
(S勝時,0%掉落艦娘捨去)
但「S勝時獲得該船的總機率」加總後為69.77%,
所以「S勝時的實際獲得機率」=「S勝時獲得該船的總機率」/69.77%
得到此表:http://i.imgur.com/orQhCgd.jpg
須要注意的有兩點:
1.Roma的掉落機制會讓Roma的掉落機率比帳面上高。(無羅馬提督表示:…)
2.除了Roma外,其他S勝會得到的船艦,掉落率會比帳面上低。
*******************************************************************************
例題時間:
Q:新米提督如我,E-6王點周回23次S勝仍沒U醬的機率是?
A:(1-1.16%)^23=76.46%
同場加映,E-6王點周回30次S勝仍沒U醬的機率是? 70.47%
E-6王點周回50次S勝仍沒U醬的機率是? 55.80%
E-6王點周回70次S勝仍沒U醬的機率是? 44.19%
E-6王點周回100次S勝仍沒U醬的機率是? 31.14%
....................
越算越心酸,不算了_(;3」∠)_……
以下順便放祭品,若我在5/18活動結束前撈到U醬的話,不管推噓箭頭都稅前100P,
發到沒錢為止,我的U醬到底在哪裡啊…… 。゚ヽ(゚′Д`)ノ゚。
--
可貴的勝利
$22,458,401/17 = $1,321,082/win
$23,500,000/21 = $1,119,048/win
$14,898,938/21 = $ 709,473/win
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05/11 22:49, , 1F
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感謝提醒QQ
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※ 編輯: laurel007 (123.195.15.106), 05/11/2015 22:53:24
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感謝更正QQ
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痾…你要恭喜我什麼? 我什麼都沒撈到啊ヾ(;゚;Д;゚;)ノ゙
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※ 編輯: laurel007 (123.195.15.106), 05/11/2015 22:55:56
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※ 編輯: laurel007 (123.195.15.106), 05/11/2015 22:57:10
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