Re: [轉錄]準到靠背阿已刪文
今天的星座運勢好準唷!
這是你今天的星座運勢，你覺得準嗎?你有時外向開朗、和藹可親；
有時則內斂戒懼、含蓄保守。你早就知道太過率直實屬不智，對別人不該太坦誠。
你能獨立思考並深感自豪，沒有確鑿證據絕不採信別人的意見。
你喜歡某個程度的改變和多樣化，受到限制和約束時會感到不滿。
你還有高度能力尚未發揮，也還沒有化為有利優勢。你有嚴以律己的傾向。
倘若這個描述讓你震撼，覺得那實在是太驚人、太正確了，
那麼你就是所謂的巴南效應(Barnum Effect)的受害者。這是指1種傾向，
一般人都會從某個情況之中，看出超過實情的意義。
巴南(Barnum Forer)在1949年針對這個主題發表了第1篇論文。就絕大多數人而言，
上述陳述大半都為「事實」。不正確的陳述很容易會被忽略，
而包含事實的部分則會被注意到。
研究發現，倘若占星圖中的星座被拿掉，
民眾便不能辨別哪段文字是在講他們自己的星座，但是只要把星座納入，
他們就會認為有關於自己的星座運勢最為精確。
--
巴南效應(Barnum effect)
Barnum effect意即當用一些很普通、很廣泛的形容詞來形容1個人的性格時，
人們常常毫不考慮地接受它，以為說的正是自己。
Bertram Forer(1949)最早做出這個效應的證據。他向他的學生宣告要做1個人格測驗，
並在施測完後，給予每個人他們每個1個「獨特」的、
簡短的人格描述並要求學生自行評斷對於自己的人格描述做1個效度性的評斷。
(其實他給的人格描述只有1種，而且相當模糊。)
結果收回後的統計結果是4.3(scale 0-5)，顯然大家都非常滿意。
以下是他給每1位學生的人格描述。意涵相當之模糊，模糊到幾乎適用於每個人。
1.你相當需要別人喜歡、羨慕、尊敬你
2.你常對自己要求嚴格
3.你自覺有相當的潛能在，並尚未被開發
4.你自覺在人格上有缺陷，但你有能力去彌補它
5.你對於性的適應有困擾
6.雖然外表上，你看來相當有自制力，但內心卻常常無安全感並擔心自己的表現
7.你發現對別人坦白並非是好事
8.你有時很外向、開放；有時卻相當內向、保守
--
Forer effect
The Forer effect (also called personal validation fallacy or the Barnum
effect after P.T. Barnum) is the observation that individuals will give high
accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are
tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to
apply to a wide range of people. The Forer effect can provide a partial
explanation for the widespread acceptance of some pseudosciences, such as
ast
Forer's demonstration
In 1948, psychologist B.R. Forer gave a personality test to his students, and
then gave them a personality analysis, supposedly based on the test's
results. He invited each of them to rate the analysis on a scale of 0 (very
poor) to 5 (excellent) as it applied to themselves: the average was 4.26. He
then revealed that each student had been given the same analysis:
"You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to
be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are
generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity
that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled
on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times
you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or
done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and
become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also
pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others'
statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too
frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable,
and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved.
Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic."
Forer had assembled this text from horoscopes.
Horoscopes
The Forer effect is used heavily in horoscopes in various publications as a
way to entice readers into believing in astrology and its powers of
prediction.
Variables influencing the effect
Later studies have found that subjects give higher accuracy ratings if the
following are true
1.the subject believes that the analysis only applies to them
2.the subject believes in the authority of the evaluator
3.the analysis lists mainly positive traits
--
source http://snipurl.com/gjba
--
嗯 這不過是來騙騙批幣 別太在意 我不是認真魔人 XDD
不過這種星座運勢的東西 本來就是看爽的而已
--
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