Fw: [新聞] 債劫難逃 陸版雷曼危機恐引爆
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20140413000725-260309
2014年04月13日 04:09 旺報 記者戴瑞芬/綜合報導
※ [本文轉錄自 Gossiping 看板 #1JIa9MUb ]
作者: death204 (我愛蘿莉) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [新聞] 債劫難逃 陸版雷曼危機恐引爆
時間: Sun Apr 13 15:52:51 2014
1.媒體來源:
旺報
2.完整新聞標題/內文:
債劫難逃 陸版雷曼危機恐引爆
大陸地方政府的債務雪球越滾越大,2014年到期要兌付的「城市投資債」就達3500億元(
人民幣,下同),4月更面臨償債高峰。還不出錢的違約潮即將湧現,各界憂心中國版「
雷曼危機」一觸即發,金融海嘯恐將在劫難逃。
在大陸,除了上海等大城市之外,地方政府原則上不允許發行地方債。但是「窮則變,變
則通」,大陸地方政府因此透過旗下企業發行債券,因為多用來投資基礎建設,所以就稱
為「城投債」。
靠大筆負債保增長
地方發債一向不手軟,「城投債」2013年就破兆元,創歷史新高。據國際貨幣基金組織(
IMF)統計,大陸中央和地方政府的債務餘額,已高達國內生產總值(GDP)的26%。寅吃
卯糧下,靠大筆負債保增長。
但是,欠債總是要還的。今年初「超日太陽能」連還本付息都無力繳納,打破了債券市場
零違約的紀錄,更就此引爆了債務違約的連環爆,包括中小企業私募的「中森債」、中誠
信託、天威保變等都陷入兌付危機,也讓大陸影子銀行問題浮上檯面。
不保證政府會還錢
然而,債務違約事件是否還會繼續發酵?答案想必不樂觀。因為據大陸交通銀行金融研究
中心調查,「城投債」在2012年、2013年大舉擴張發債,2014年就得面臨3500億元的巨額
兌付,尤其4月更是首波的償債高峰。
如果「城投債」現在就出現兌付危機,招商證券債券研究員孫彬彬斷言,接下來還有7年
期的產品到期,恐將引爆系統性風險,地方政府財政金融也將因此崩盤。
地方債拉警報,雖然是地方政府旗下企業發債,卻不保證政府會還錢。廣東省政府出資的
廣東國際信託投資公司(GITIC)破產倒閉,結果銀行資金未獲償還,而廣東省也沒代償
還債,投資大眾只能認賠。
眼看地方債違約潮即將湧現,各界因此憂心中國將重蹈美國雷曼連動債的信用破產危機,
引爆流動性風險,中國版「雷曼危機」將一發不可收拾。
小 靈 通
雷曼風險
美國投資銀行雷曼兄弟控股公司,因為操作高風險的連動債,2008年受到次級房貸風暴波
及,導致虧損6130億美元而宣告破產,更因此引爆全球金融海嘯。雷曼事件也打擊對債券
類衍生性金融商品投資信心,對連動債更是避之唯恐不及。
3.新聞連結:
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20140413000725-260309
4.備註:
反正是人治社會,說不還就不還沒差拉
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※ 轉錄者: asynchronous (175.180.68.152), 04/13/2014 17:18:36
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