Re: [閒聊] 別讓靠賽論毀了爐石(祭品文)
※ 引述《Mark0529 (神)》之銘言:
: 靠賽上#1的想法
: 其實是站不住腳的
: 爐石以及任何電競
: 當然不可能百分之百排除運氣成份
: 要是我當初運氣不好
: 也許就只能#62
: 無法達到#61
: 但你要說靠運氣成份可以達到頂尖
: 這是不合邏輯的
: 因為你拿不出數據佐證
: 在你拿不出數據的前提下
: 如果你要說運氣好可以上#1
: 那我也說運氣不好也可以上#1
: 你談機率要有數據
: 數據的採樣
: 就是靠做實驗
: 你自己做不出這種實驗
: 你也找幾個人上#1試試看啊
: 你能證明
: 上#1很容易嗎
: 如果不容易
: 靠賽更不容易
其實你從POKER角度來想就知道靠賽上#1不會站不住腳,只是機率小而已
POKER比賽知名選手能打到最後幾桌的機率會比普通人高,但比賽最後抱走第一
名的也常是生面孔,也很多人就只有一次比賽表現出色而已(靠賽)
一個機率影響成分重的遊戲你只能推斷"大量樣本"、"長期"下,有技術的人應該
表現會比較出色,但樣本不夠多的情況下運氣會有很大影響
你要求數據佐證也是很好笑,要論證你自己好像也沒提出不靠賽只靠技術才能上
#1的佐證阿,結果先要求別人拿數據。
好啦佐證應該是能找的(只是應該沒人統計過,因為資料可能也只有BZ有),就統
計一下所有上過#1的人,分析裡面能重複多次上#1的比例,分析每季穩定上傳說
的比例,分析每季傳說勝率,看有沒有那種只有單季特別突出的outlier,我相信
一定有少數的樣本是單次突出的
你用自己那少得可憐的樣本當例子然後就想否定運氣的影響,就好像你去比兩三
次POKER然後都打不進final table,然後你就下結論說技術跟你一樣或比你差的
人就不可能進final table,但真是這樣嗎?
--
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當然不完全一樣但相當類似,你看過那些top streamer衝#1的grinding就知道,
常常是#2連贏#4或#5好幾盤然後衝上去,其實就跟最後一桌情況很接近
※ 編輯: ilw4e (223.137.35.225), 04/11/2017 21:08:50
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