[討論] 美麗島100估票 賴583.1 侯532.1 柯292.2
註:納入過去10年投票結果、政黨印象、投票意願.....多項參數推估
賴蕭配:563.8~583.1萬票,得票率區間40.9%~42.3%
侯趙配:510.1~532.1萬票,得票率區間37.0%~38.6%
柯吳配:277.1~292.2萬票,得票率區間20.1%~21.2%
選舉人口1953萬,投票率以約7成計算,1%約13.67萬票
賴贏侯約52萬票,正負21萬票
賴蕭配與侯趙配兩組得票數、得票率跟上一波基本上維持平盤
柯小升1%,多快10萬票
2024的侯「得票率」有可能跟2020的韓差不多,大概都是38%左右
但,侯的「得票數」可能無法超越韓的552萬票
若投票率超過75%,侯搞不好有機會超過韓的552萬票
美麗島戴立安估票始終都給柯「保底得票率」至少15%,「保底得票數」200萬票以上
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其實是第3位
第1位:1996年李登輝581萬票,得票率54%
第2位:2000年陳水扁497萬票,得票率39%
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※ 編輯: perec (159.117.72.232 臺灣), 12/29/2023 11:19:52
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還有 40 則推文
還有 2 段內文
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