[討論] 美麗島40波年齡原始資料與市話比例
newbrain大的圖
51.7%僅手機 是指
家裡有室內電話的人 於住處的使用情形
例如家裡還有市話 但不用市話,只用手機 佔比51.7%
https://i.imgur.com/hO5T5yc.png
所以這三項加起來是100%
1. 住處有市話,但只用手機 51.7%
2. 住處有市話,手機與市話都用 40.5
3. 住處有市話,只有市話 7.8%
其實現況安裝市話比例還是有73%
671.9萬門號 / 919.9萬住宅=73%
https://i.imgur.com/rg2q97P.png
每戶有2.54人 * 671.9萬安裝戶= 1700萬
每戶一半的比例不使用電話 ,剩下850萬會接市話
https://i.imgur.com/h3llvEl.png
提供這次第40波的民調原始資料
可以看到50歲以下都是需要加權的
尤其20-24歲 的確約要加權100%
50-54歲 接電話比例超高,所以被打折了35%
試算一下
室內電話50歲以上會多接到35% 需要被打75折,才是正確比例
https://i.imgur.com/D8AbLT0.png
街頭民調缺點 就如同大家提的
無法做推論統計
戴立安:非機率樣本
抽樣的缺點:便利抽樣 立意抽樣、難匿名、YT流量考量
廢話一堆
大家記得去投票 就能驗證美麗島準不準了
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