[討論] 丁丁的得票數大概會落在哪個區間?消失
2002 馬英九87萬多票
2006 郝龍斌69萬多票
2010 郝龍斌79萬多票
2014 連勝文60萬多票
2014的時空背景確實是對國民黨大不利
加上 連勝文跳過 議員 立委 等選舉歷練 直接衝市長 還有網路風向 各種因素
拿了60萬左右的票數
但也應證 國民黨選情再怎麼壞 60萬票就是基本盤
丁丁要比連勝文低票是不太可能
但要達到2006郝龍斌的69萬左右 好像也沒絕對
反過來說 柯P上一屆85萬票 是因為民進黨禮讓
這次柯P票數要超過85萬 應該是非常困難
綠營鐵票應該還是會轉向姚文智
重點來了
丁丁60萬票為基礎往上加
柯P 85萬票往下減
感覺70萬票是一個分水嶺
丁丁要比連勝文多拿10萬票
柯P不能讓姚文智瓜分超過15萬票
大家覺得 丁丁的票數大概會落在哪個區間範圍呢?
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