Re: [新聞] 最新民調:柯文哲領先 賴神、花媽參選都沒用消失
純提供新台灣國策智庫加權前北市民調
https://tinyurl.com/yazhqxyr (請自行查閱P4)
兩強對決 柯33.5 丁41.1
三腳督 柯31.6 丁38.3 姚14.7
三腳督(賴) 柯26.6 丁35.4 賴23.4
三腳督(菊) 柯26.4 丁35.7 菊23.8
結論:1、青年投票率關鍵,青年投票率越高,越符合加權後民調結果。
2、藍35-40%鐵票仍存,本民調青年抽樣樣本數照人口比例而言偏低,
但台北鐵藍本來就是年齡50UP以上,所以這結果可能符合現狀。
柯的確能吸引淺藍票(新黨、親民、民國)
3、民進黨沒想像中弱,但候選人是關鍵。
以上不負責推論,本人沒北市投票權,不岔賭XDD
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