[討論] 蔡朱宋估票Ver.1
還真的要換柱了......
原本以為只是說說而已
好險沒把身家都拿去賭洪繼續提名
現在大概是要派朱了
不知會辭職參選還是帶職(我新北人已哭,說好的作滿呢?)
朱出來的話,以他的光譜看應該會吸回宋楚瑜的藍票,重演2012棄保。
當然朱出來也可能使宋退選,之後也會另發蔡朱版本
(讓我總統估票還要分人選,國民黨偉矣)
以最近兩次民調來分析,宋的得票參考2012得票。
算一算差不多就是這個結果(暫不考慮新北人賭爛效應,雖然應該引響不到2%就是了)
結果如下
蔡得票數 得票率 朱得票數 得票率 宋得票數 得票率
臺北市 799115 51.81% 671435 43.53% 71829 4.66%
新北市 1234551 55.40% 880829 39.53% 113029 5.07%
基隆市 101766 48.93% 91423 43.96% 14791 7.11%
宜蘭縣 157115 63.53% 78674 31.81% 11517 4.66%
桃園縣 546872 50.92% 469911 43.75% 57188 5.32%
新竹縣 116316 41.71% 145887 52.31% 16661 5.97%
新竹市 113296 50.25% 99631 44.19% 12535 5.56%
苗栗縣 135093 43.52% 158678 51.12% 16641 5.36%
臺中市 807576 55.31% 569217 38.99% 83282 5.70%
彰化縣 400936 57.03% 264902 37.68% 37181 5.29%
南投縣 146368 52.42% 117730 42.16% 15120 5.42%
雲林縣 247679 67.16% 104399 28.31% 16709 4.53%
嘉義縣 208834 70.14% 76112 25.56% 12791 4.30%
嘉義市 90021 62.32% 47414 32.82% 7014 4.86%
臺南市 727144 69.18% 276885 26.34% 47052 4.48%
高雄市 1038169 65.34% 482145 30.35% 68545 4.31%
屏東縣 318712 67.28% 138405 29.22% 16588 3.50%
臺東縣 44583 42.34% 54973 52.21% 5740 5.45%
花蓮縣 61765 38.02% 89661 55.19% 11026 6.79%
澎湖縣 25157 57.68% 14852 34.05% 3606 8.27%
金門縣 8979 24.04% 26658 71.37% 1712 4.58%
連江縣 1214 24.27% 3304 66.05% 484 9.68%
全國 7331262 57.12% 4863125 37.89% 641042 4.99%
宋應該拿不到保證金了(我沒寫錯!)
大概朱的形象會重傷
立委我覺得影響不大(從民調來分析的話),不再下跌而已
立委預測大概只會小更新
2016之後就看國民黨有沒有蔡英文了
希望大家繼續提供意見與想法
還有 繼續挺柱!
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.112.7.214
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1444299625.A.C9E.html
推
10/08 18:21, , 1F
10/08 18:21, 1F
推
10/08 18:22, , 2F
10/08 18:22, 2F
→
10/08 18:22, , 3F
10/08 18:22, 3F
※ 編輯: Neptunium (140.112.7.214), 10/08/2015 18:23:24
噓
10/08 18:23, , 4F
10/08 18:23, 4F
是的
※ 編輯: Neptunium (140.112.7.214), 10/08/2015 18:23:45
推
10/08 18:24, , 5F
10/08 18:24, 5F
推
10/08 18:26, , 6F
10/08 18:26, 6F
推
10/08 18:26, , 7F
10/08 18:26, 7F
→
10/08 18:27, , 8F
10/08 18:27, 8F
→
10/08 18:27, , 9F
10/08 18:27, 9F
事實上宋的民調一直在降,很像2012。
※ 編輯: Neptunium (140.112.7.214), 10/08/2015 18:28:32
→
10/08 18:28, , 10F
10/08 18:28, 10F
推
10/08 18:28, , 11F
10/08 18:28, 11F
→
10/08 18:29, , 12F
10/08 18:29, 12F
回W大,我也希望,但我需要各縣市的選舉人口阿。
※ 編輯: Neptunium (140.112.7.214), 10/08/2015 18:30:27
→
10/08 18:29, , 13F
10/08 18:29, 13F
推
10/08 18:30, , 14F
10/08 18:30, 14F
→
10/08 18:30, , 15F
10/08 18:30, 15F
→
10/08 18:31, , 16F
10/08 18:31, 16F
→
10/08 18:31, , 17F
10/08 18:31, 17F
→
10/08 18:32, , 18F
10/08 18:32, 18F
→
10/08 18:33, , 19F
10/08 18:33, 19F
→
10/08 18:33, , 20F
10/08 18:33, 20F
→
10/08 18:34, , 21F
10/08 18:34, 21F
→
10/08 18:34, , 22F
10/08 18:34, 22F
→
10/08 18:36, , 23F
10/08 18:36, 23F
推
10/08 18:37, , 24F
10/08 18:37, 24F
推
10/08 18:37, , 25F
10/08 18:37, 25F
→
10/08 18:38, , 26F
10/08 18:38, 26F
→
10/08 18:39, , 27F
10/08 18:39, 27F
→
10/08 18:40, , 28F
10/08 18:40, 28F
→
10/08 18:41, , 29F
10/08 18:41, 29F
推
10/08 18:47, , 30F
10/08 18:47, 30F
推
10/08 18:48, , 31F
10/08 18:48, 31F
→
10/08 18:48, , 32F
10/08 18:48, 32F
推
10/08 18:51, , 33F
10/08 18:51, 33F
推
10/08 18:53, , 34F
10/08 18:53, 34F
→
10/08 18:54, , 35F
10/08 18:54, 35F
推
10/08 19:05, , 36F
10/08 19:05, 36F
→
10/08 19:11, , 37F
10/08 19:11, 37F
→
10/08 19:21, , 38F
10/08 19:21, 38F
推
10/08 19:36, , 39F
10/08 19:36, 39F
推
10/08 19:39, , 40F
10/08 19:39, 40F
推
10/08 19:54, , 41F
10/08 19:54, 41F
我這不是給到五%了嗎?
※ 編輯: Neptunium (140.112.7.214), 10/08/2015 19:58:45
推
10/08 20:11, , 42F
10/08 20:11, 42F
推
10/08 20:14, , 43F
10/08 20:14, 43F
→
10/08 20:14, , 44F
10/08 20:14, 44F
→
10/08 20:16, , 45F
10/08 20:16, 45F
推
10/08 20:16, , 46F
10/08 20:16, 46F
推
10/08 20:17, , 47F
10/08 20:17, 47F
→
10/08 20:18, , 48F
10/08 20:18, 48F
推
10/08 20:18, , 49F
10/08 20:18, 49F
→
10/08 20:18, , 50F
10/08 20:18, 50F
推
10/08 20:29, , 51F
10/08 20:29, 51F
推
10/08 20:53, , 52F
10/08 20:53, 52F
推
10/08 21:10, , 53F
10/08 21:10, 53F
→
10/08 21:10, , 54F
10/08 21:10, 54F
→
10/08 21:10, , 55F
10/08 21:10, 55F
推
10/08 21:19, , 56F
10/08 21:19, 56F
→
10/08 21:20, , 57F
10/08 21:20, 57F
→
10/08 21:21, , 58F
10/08 21:21, 58F
推
10/08 22:13, , 59F
10/08 22:13, 59F
推
10/08 22:52, , 60F
10/08 22:52, 60F
→
10/08 22:52, , 61F
10/08 22:52, 61F
→
10/09 01:17, , 62F
10/09 01:17, 62F
→
10/09 01:17, , 63F
10/09 01:17, 63F
→
10/09 09:03, , 64F
10/09 09:03, 64F
推
10/09 19:55, , 65F
10/09 19:55, 65F
推
10/09 19:58, , 66F
10/09 19:58, 66F
→
10/09 19:58, , 67F
10/09 19:58, 67F
→
10/09 20:00, , 68F
10/09 20:00, 68F
→
10/09 20:01, , 69F
10/09 20:01, 69F
推
10/09 20:03, , 70F
10/09 20:03, 70F
推
10/09 20:04, , 71F
10/09 20:04, 71F
→
10/09 20:04, , 72F
10/09 20:04, 72F
推
10/09 20:13, , 73F
10/09 20:13, 73F
→
10/09 20:16, , 74F
10/09 20:16, 74F