[討論] 2014年底六都選舉選前5個月預測
很久沒發文了,針對2014年底選舉六個直轄市之選情部份
一些超小黨的參選者就先不管了(除台北市外)
以下是個人不負責任的預測和估票 (身為台中人,台中會稍微估的比較詳細一點)
台北市:連勝文 720000 49.7% 柯文哲 660000 45.5% 其他 70000 4.8% 連贏6萬票(4%)
新北市:朱立倫 1170000 56.3% 游錫堃 910000 43.7% 朱贏26萬票 (贏將近13%)
桃園市:吳志揚 520000 54.2% 鄭文燦 440000 45.8% 吳贏8萬票 (贏8%多)
大台中市:原台中市部份 林佳龍 285000 50.0% 胡志強 285000 50.0% (大約打平)
原台中縣部份 林佳龍 475000 53.4% 胡志強 415000 46.6% 林贏6萬票
總計:林佳龍 760000 52.05% 胡志強 700000 47.95% 林贏6萬票 (贏4%)
大台南市:賴清德 670000 67.0% 黃秀霜 330000 33.0% 賴贏34萬票 (贏34%)
大高雄市:陳菊 930000 59.2% 楊秋興 640000 40.8% 陳贏29萬票 (贏18%多)
除非國民兩黨有人換人選
不然以上應該是本人針對這次年底選舉六都部分,第一次也是最後一次預測 (即最終版本)
等年底再來檢驗吧~
PS:本篇PO完後,本帳號下次上線可能是1-3個月後,所以不會回本篇底下推文或者信件
等下次上線有空再來PO六都以外其他縣市之預測
--
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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1404051180.A.182.html
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已修正 之前票數沒問題 只是縣市打錯 (當然總票數多的一定是台中縣XD)
※ 編輯: saradinel (111.246.64.149), 06/29/2014 22:17:11
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本人要下線了 短期內不會再上PTT 這篇供大家參考 等年底再來檢驗吧
※ 編輯: saradinel (111.246.64.149), 06/29/2014 22:20:50
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