[新聞] 藍白談「合」!美麗島最新民調跌破眼鏡
看板Gossiping作者LDMisshit (LDMisshit)時間6月前 (2023/10/14 14:38)推噓12(60推 48噓 78→)留言186則, 142人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)
1.媒體來源:中時新聞網
2.記者署名:于川
3.完整新聞標題:藍白談「合」!美麗島最新民調跌破眼鏡 排名逆轉了
4.完整新聞內文:
2024總統大選僅僅只剩不到100天,國民黨、民眾黨在今(14)日將舉辦「藍白合」會前
會。《美麗島電子報》稍早也公布最新第51波民調,在三腳督的態勢下,由高到低分別為
民進黨總統參選人賴清德37.8%、國民黨侯友宜22.4%排第二、民眾黨柯文哲20.8%墊底。
侯友宜相較於上次民調成長了1.6%、柯文哲則下挫了3.4%,此消彼漲的情況下,侯友宜反
而逆勢成為第二名。
而在4腳督的態勢下,與第50波相比,賴清德從36.7%略降到36.0%,依然保持第一、侯友
宜從17.7%上升到19.8%居次、柯文哲則從19.4%掉到17.2%、鴻海創辦人郭台銘保持6.2%不
變。
上述民調的執行時間為本月11日至13日,調查對象為全國22縣市,年滿20歲的民眾,調查
方法為由訪員進行的電腦輔助電話訪問方式(Computer-Assisted Telephone
Interviewing,CATI)。此次調查成功完訪1200人,信賴水準95%的情況下,抽樣誤差最
大值為正負2.8%。
另在樣本代表性與加權則採用「比例估計法」(raking ratio estimation),該調查的
母群體參數是依內政部公布2023年9月民眾性別、戶籍、年齡資料,與2022年12月民眾教
育程度等特徵,並逐項重複進行連續性修正,使得樣本特徵與母群體結構一致(統計檢定
顯著水準p-value<0.05),此時整體樣本即具有代表性。該民調為《美麗島電子報》委託
戴立安進行問卷設計與分析、並請畢肯市場研究公司執行電訪。
5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址)不可用YAHOO、LINE、MSN等轉載媒體:
https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20231014001753-260407?chdtv
6.備註:
這時候公布,吳董你.....
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