[新聞] 美媒：中國可能在2024前正式攻打台灣島
看板Gossiping作者aa923310tw (單身肥魯)時間1年前 (2022/08/04 20:04)推噓165(220推 55噓 183→)留言458則, 358人參與討論串1/3 (看更多)
1.媒體來源:
FOX NEWS
2.記者署名:
By Brooke Singman | Fox News
3.完整新聞標題:
消息指出：中國可能將在2024美國大選前正式攻打台灣島
China could invade Taiwan before the 2024 US presidential election: sources
4.完整新聞內文:
熟悉美國和盟國情報的現任和前任官員告訴FOX NEWS，中國可能在未來 18 個月內入侵
台灣，這表明在今年 11 月和明年 11 月召開的中國共產黨全國代表大會之間存在一個特
別“危險”的窗口期。
兩名前高級官員告訴福克斯新聞，情報表明中國看到了在那個時間段內對台灣進行兩棲攻
擊和軍事入侵的潛在機會。
“我們一直並且一直都知道，中國對兩棲攻擊和軍事入侵台灣有一個始終存在、不斷發展
的計劃。如果他們在政治上不能成功統一，那麼他們將用武力這樣做，”一位熟悉美國情
報的前高級情報官員告訴FOX NEWS，他曾討論過屬於美國在印太地區盟友的情報。
這位官員繼續說：“現在不同的是，我們有情報表明，這已經從一個不確定的、模糊
的狀態轉變為相信未來 18 個月會有機會開戰。”
“我認為機會會出現在拜登政府內部並不是巧合。”
EXCLUSIVE: China could invade Taiwan within the next 18 months, current and
former officials familiar with U.S. and allied intelligence told Fox News,
suggesting a particularly "dangerous" window between the meeting of the
National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party this November and the next
U.S. presidential election in 2024.
Two former senior officials told Fox News that the intelligence suggests
China sees the potential opportunity for an amphibious assault and military
invasion of Taiwan in that time frame.
"We have always had and always been aware that China has an ever-present,
ever-evolving plan for an amphibious assault and military invasion of Taiwan.
If they are not successful in reunifying politically, then they will do so
with force," one former senior intelligence official familiar with U.S.
intelligence, and who has discussed intelligence belonging to a U.S. ally in
the Indo-Pacific, told Fox News.
President Biden posted a photo of him speaking on the phone after a call with
Chinese President Xi Jinping, July 28, 2022.
President Biden posted a photo of him speaking on the phone after a call with
Chinese President Xi Jinping, July 28, 2022. (White House)
"What is different now is, we have intelligence that this has gone from an
indefinite, nebulous scenario, to a belief that there is a window of
opportunity in the next 18 months," the official continued. "I don’t think
that’s a coincidence that window of opportunity is within a Biden
administration."
WHITE HOUSE: US 'DOES NOT WANT A CRISIS' BUT WILL 'MANAGE WHAT BEIJING
CHOOSES TO DO' AMID PELOSI TAIWAN VISIT
A former senior Trump administration official told Fox News House Speaker
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is being used as a "pretext" for increased Chinese
aggression around Taiwan, but said it is "not the real cause of it," and
warned that the "Davidson Window" is "closing."
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, center pose for photos after she arrives in
Taipei, Taiwan, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday
night despite threats from Beijing of serious consequences, becoming the
highest-ranking American official to visit the self-ruled island claimed by
China in 25 years.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, center pose for photos after she arrives in
Taipei, Taiwan, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday
night despite threats from Beijing of serious consequences, becoming the
highest-ranking American official to visit the self-ruled island claimed by
China in 25 years. (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)
Former commander of American forces in the Indo-Pacific Adm. Philip Davison
testified last year that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years—
by 2027.
"The window is now between the Party Congress and the next U.S. presidential
election," the official said noting that window could close by January 2025—
at the end of the presidential transition period. "I think we are in a very
dangerous two-year window right now."
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is expected to take
place in November, where Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be
re-elected.
A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told Fox News
that the United States "will not seek and does not want a crisis."
"We are prepared to manage what Beijing chooses to do. We will not engage in
saber-rattling, and we're not looking to escalate," the NSC spokesperson told
Fox News. "At the same time, we're going to be steady and resolute. We will
not be deterred from operating in the seas and skies of the Western Pacific
as we have done for decades."
The spokesperson added that the United States "will continue to support
Taiwan, consistent with our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, and
defend a free and open Indo-Pacific."
"We're communicating closely with our allies and partners. And we are
maintaining open lines of communication Beijing," the spokesperson said. "We
will keep doing what we are doing -- supporting cross-Strait peace and
stability."
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party
of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission,
sits down with representatives of teachers and students at a symposium and
delivers an important speech during a visit to Renmin University of China in
Beijing, capital of China, April 25, 2022.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party
of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission,
sits down with representatives of teachers and students at a symposium and
delivers an important speech during a visit to Renmin University of China in
Beijing, capital of China, April 25, 2022. (Ju Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images)
However, the former senior Trump administration official told Fox News that
"the likelihood of invasion has increased dramatically with China perceiving
the United States is in a weakened position," pointing to the Biden
administration’s "surrender" of Afghanistan to the Taliban in August 2021
and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which resulted "in only half-measure
sanctions being put on the Russian Federation."
PENTAGON OFFICIAL SAYS 'ONLY A MATTER OF TIME' BEFORE CHINA CAUSES 'MAJOR'
INCIDENT IN INDO-PACIFIC REGION
The official also said Xi has been emboldened by U.S. "domestic problems,"
including crime in cities across the nation, "the lack of control" at the
Southern border, and the "failures" of the Biden administration’s energy
policy.
The official stressed that the invasion could happen before the inauguration
of the next president in 2025, saying China fears the election of "another
leader that could return to a more robust, ‘peace through strength’ foreign
policy and stronger domestic policies."
With regard to criticisms of the current administration's foreign policy and
its withdrawal from Afghanistan, a Biden administration official told Fox
News that China "would love nothing more than for the U.S. government to
still be bogged down in a 20-year war, still committing billions of dollars,
U.S. troops, and have our military focused on another country's civil war.
"By being able to withdraw our forces from Afghanistan, we have been able to
reposition them and refocus our efforts to other areas of the world," the
official said. The official added that the Biden administration "freed up
resources" and said leaving Afghanistan put the United States "in a much
better position on the geopolitical stage when it comes to our strategic
competition with China or with any other important issues around the world."
However, during an interview with Fox News Wednesday, Former Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino Klinck said the United States "has
failed to deter adversaries within the last 18 months."
"If anything, the United States has been deterred from forcefully supporting
its partners and allies worldwide," Klinck said, adding that he has viewed
2024 as a "particularly dangerous year."
"The reason is because it is not only the election in the United States, but
it is also the presidential election in Taiwan," Klinck said, stressing that
he believes the People’s Liberation Army "will move against Taiwan when the
Chinese Communist Party tells it to, regardless of timing."
"I view 2024 as being dangerous because I believe the CCP, particularly
President Xi Jinping, will see it as a potential window of opportunity
because of the U.S. election, and the fact that he probably perceives that
the United States is going to shy away from an international crisis during a
presidential election," he told Fox News.
Klinck, who also formerly served as a U.S. military attaché at the U.S.
embassy in Beijing, currently serves as a senior advisor to the National
Bureau of Asian Research.
Red flags flutter in front of the Great Hall of the People before the annual
two sessions on March 4, 2022 in Beijing, China. The fifth session of the
13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative
Conference (CPPCC) opens on March 4.
Red flags flutter in front of the Great Hall of the People before the annual
two sessions on March 4, 2022 in Beijing, China. The fifth session of the
13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative
Conference (CPPCC) opens on March 4. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
"I also believe he perceives that the presumptive next Taiwanese president is
going to move Taiwan closer to independence," he said.
CHINA POSES 'BIGGEST LONG-TERM THREAT TO ECONOMIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY,' FBI
DIRECTOR WRAY WARNS
Current Biden administration officials told Fox News that the situation is
fluid and that they are monitoring closely as China gears up for "potential
escalation." Officials said they are looking to see how the situation will
play out over the coming months and how far China will go.
Officials say they are focusing on what the heightened threat could mean for
Taiwan, for U.S.-Chinese relations, and for certain critical industries that
could be impacted.
White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic
communications John Kirby said Tuesday that even before Pelosi’s visit to
Taiwan this week, Beijing "positioned itself to take further steps, and we
expect that they will continue to react over a longer-term horizon."
At this point, the Chinese have declared several closure areas around Taiwan
for military exercises, and Klinck told Fox News that some of those closure
areas "encroach upon Taiwanese territorial waters."
FILE - In this photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense,
Taiwan military forces conduct anti-landing drills during the annual Han
Kuang military exercises near New Taipei City in Taiwan on Wednesday, July
27, 2022. (Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via AP, File)
FILE - In this photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense,
Taiwan military forces conduct anti-landing drills during the annual Han
Kuang military exercises near New Taipei City in Taiwan on Wednesday, July
27, 2022. (Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via AP, File) (Taiwan Ministry
of National Defense)
Klinck told Fox News that this is the first time the military exercises are
taking place east of Taiwan.
MILLEY DIRECTS A REVIEW OF US, CHINESE MILITARY CONTACTS, AMID WARNING
BEIJING POSES NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT
"The Chinese are trying to say to Taiwan, you don’t have any territorial
waters because you belong to us, and they are going to make the point now by
conducting exercises there, and they have never done that before," Klinck
said. "They have previously declared closure areas and conducted exercises
there. They have never done it though on the east side of Taiwan."
Biden administration officials have been warning for months of increased
Chinese aggression, with one top Pentagon official last month sounding the
alarm that it is "only a matter of time" before a "major incident or
accident" occurs in the Indo-Pacific.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi
Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, June 5, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia
Novozhenina/Pool
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi
Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, June 5, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia
Novozhenina/Pool (REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool)
Assistant Secretary for Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner
said last month that the Pentagon has witnessed a "sharp increase" in
aggressive behavior by the PLA in the Indo-Pacific, admitting that it has
"increased dramatically, with dozens of dangerous events in the first half of
this year alone."
The warnings from the Pentagon come just days after Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley directed his staff to collect information on
interactions between the U.S. and Chinese militaries in the last five years.
CHINA'S XI JINPING IS 'A SILENT PARTNER' IN PUTIN'S 'AGGRESSION' IN UKRAINE,
CIA DIRECTOR BURNS WARNS
The directive also comes as top intelligence community officials are warning
of the threat Beijing poses to the U.S.
FBI Director Christopher Wray earlier this month said China poses the
"biggest long-term threat" to U.S. economic and national security.
Taiwanese police officers on heightened alert after Taiwan is hit with
multiple cyber attacks. Picture taken at the Jing-Mei Human Rights Memorial
and Cultural Park in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, on Aug. 3, 2022.
Taiwanese police officers on heightened alert after Taiwan is hit with
multiple cyber attacks. Picture taken at the Jing-Mei Human Rights Memorial
and Cultural Park in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, on Aug. 3, 2022. ( I-Hwa
Cheng/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The National Counterintelligence and Security Center also this month warned
that state and local leaders are at "risk" of being "manipulated" to support
"hidden" agendas by the Chinese Communist Party as China seeks to target
officials outside of Washington to lobby for Beijing-friendly policies at the
federal level.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
In April, CIA Director William Burns issued a similar warning to Wray’s —
also noting that China has been "a silent partner" in Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine.
Burns, at the time, said China is "in many ways, the most profound test the
CIA has ever faced," calling China a "formidable competitor lacking in
neither ambition nor capability."
5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址)需放媒體原始連結，不可用轉載媒體連結:
https://reurl.cc/ZbG5zM
6.備註:
美國官員提出對台警告，情報指出在未來18個月內中國就會對台灣島發動攻擊。
中台終將一戰，台灣應該立刻斷絕與中國的所有貿易關係
積極備戰未來與中國的戰事
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1659614655.A.821.html
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