[新聞] 野雞雜誌摘要--美國對中新一輪關稅已回收

看板Gossiping作者ternway (do my part)時間7年前 (2018/09/23 16:30)推噓19(19推 0噓 13→)

留言32則, 23人參與討論串1/1

1.媒體來源: ※ 例如蘋果日報、奇摩新聞英國野雞小報經濟學人 2.完整新聞標題: ※ 標題沒有寫出來 ---> 依照板規刪除文章美國將對中國施加的新一輪關稅至少會再持續一段期間 America’s tariffs on China are likely to last for some time 3.完整新聞內文: ※ 社論特稿都不能貼! 違者刪除(政治類水桶3個月)，貼廣告也會被刪除喔! 這篇認為，美國將對中國施加的新一輪關稅至少會再持續一段期間，短期間很難停火。照理來說，目前兩方強弱明顯，應該要能夠很快取得協議才是，然而看起來很難如此，因為美方的要求很難達到。美方要求中國改善讓西方世界普遍不開心的不公平貿易行為，例如對國營事業的補貼、要求外企技術移轉來換取進入中國市場等等，這是合理的要求。但他們也要求消弭兩國的貿易赤字、並把製造業搬回美國，無視這些是數十年來所形成的全球貿易體系、及兩國生產要素成本差異所造成的現象。川普政府的要求，是把合理的跟不合理的要求都綁成一包，別說中國政府不想，就算想做也做不到，因此，認為短期停火的希望渺茫。原文： Hunker down America’s tariffs on China are likely to last for some time That is bad news for everyone IN HIS trade war with China, President Donald Trump appears to have the upper hand. The new tariffs his administration unveiled this week, which will raise the share of Chinese imports subject to levies to at least 44%, are unlikely to dampen America’s sizzling economy, or to boost inflation by much. Though some firms will be disrupted, most Americans will not notice the damage (see article). China, however, is under pressure. Its growth seems to be slowing and its stockmarket is down almost a quarter from its peak in January. China’ s government has announced retaliatory tariffs against American goods, but it is fast running out of imports to tax. During conflict, an imbalance in strength should lead to a swift resolution. Here the side with the advantage may prolong the war. That is because America has several goals, some of them unachievable. Unjust war The official justification for the tariffs is rooted in anger about Chinese mercantilism—anger which is shared across the rich world. China gives vast and opaque subsidies to its state-owned firms. It requires exporters to hand over intellectual property as a condition of access to its market. The world’ s consumers benefit from the artificially cheap imports that result. But trade of this sort is unsustainable, politically and economically. America is right to demand that China play fair. That is not the limit of Mr Trump’s ambition, however. He also wants to eliminate America’s trade deficit with China, which he mistakenly sees as a transfer of wealth. He has broadcast his desire to force manufacturing supply chains back to America. And his administration has identified China as a strategic competitor. Some of the president’s advisers seem to relish the chance to do it economic harm. The White House may argue that China’s abuse of the rules, the trade deficit and the decline of American industry are one and the same. They are not. Even without subsidies, China, like most other emerging markets, would enjoy a substantial cost advantage over America. The trade deficit, meanwhile, is tied to the difference between domestic saving and investment. Tariffs might cut the bilateral deficit with China, but America would find it nearly impossible to shrink its overall deficit without engineering a domestic recession. The goal of rolling back decades of American deindustrialisation is a pipe-dream. Should America succeed in forcing supply chains back onshore, it will find that many fewer jobs are attached, because of rapid automation and productivity growth. American manufacturing’s share of GDP has fallen only by a fifth since 2000, while its share of employment is down by a third. Besides, the lowest-skilled jobs would not go to America, but to low-wage Asian countries, like Vietnam. There is a faint hope that Mr Trump’s advisers and allies will play good cop to his bad cop, using tariffs as a bargaining chip in rewriting global trading rules to constrain China’s mercantilism—a legitimate goal. More probably, the bad cop—who is, after all, in charge—will refuse to be stood down, because of his obsession with trade deficits and jobs and because Chinese leaders seem unwilling or unable to contemplate reforms that would strengthen moderate voices in Team Trump. The prospects for any truce with China look grim. Recent history suggests that trade disputes are hard to settle. Tariffs imposed on Chinese tyres in 2009 under President Barack Obama, a free-trader, lasted three years. Mr Trump ’s recent trade agreement with Mexico does not include an end to levies on its steel and aluminium. America’s latest escalation against China is no more likely to be speedily reversed. 4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址): ※ 當新聞連結過長時，需提供短網址方便網友點擊 http://t.cn/EP2atSr 5.備註: ※ 一個人一天只能張貼一則新聞，被刪或自刪也算額度內，超貼者水桶，請注意 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.120.149.232 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1537691430.A.802.html

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