[新聞] 經濟學人：貿易戰 中國變得異常溫和低調已回收

看板Gossiping作者 (使用者在線上)時間5年前 (2018/07/16 22:04), 編輯推噓184(189推 5噓 36→)
留言230則, 198人參與, 5年前最新討論串1/1
1.媒體來源: The Economist 2.完整新聞標題: In its trade war with America, China dials down the hype 貿易戰開打至今 中國變得異常溫和低調 註：翻譯野雞雜誌很累耶，推一下啦 3.完整新聞內文: JUST a week into what could prove a long and grinding trade war launched against China by the United States, a curious feature of the conflict has already emerged: China will not, for now at least, dip into its traditional armoury of rhetorical bluster and belligerence. That marks a break with usual Communist Party propaganda, and even with its rhetoric of a few weeks ago. 中美貿易戰開打一週了，出現一個獨特現象：中國這次竟然一反往常，不搞唇槍舌戰，避免言語交鋒，表現出來的態度和幾週前比起來溫和許多。這完全不符合共產黨宣傳機器的一貫作風。 Then, the language was much more uncompromising. And as recently as June, according to the Wall Street Journal, in a meeting with a score of mainly American and European executives, President Xi Jinping promised a bare-knuckle approach in countering President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs, the first of which, on $34bn of imported Chinese machinery and electronic parts, kicked in on July 6th. “In the West you have a notion that if somebody hits you on the left cheek, you turn the other cheek,” he reportedly said. “In our culture we punch back.” 中共的態度幾週前比現在強硬許多。美國首波懲罰性關稅於6月6日生效，針對340億美元中國機械零件、電子零件加徵關稅。根據華爾街日報報導，習近平於今年六月會晤歐美商業人士時表示，如果川普總統執意推動懲罰性關稅，中國一定會和美國硬碰硬。報導稱習近平在會中落下狠話：「在西方，如果左臉給人打了，連右臉也得轉過來給他打，但在中國，我們會一拳打回去。」 In terms of trade responses, China is now bearing that assertion out. It has imposed tariffs on an equivalent value of American goods, including sports-utility vehicles, pork and soyabeans. It promises tough responses to further American moves—this week the Trump administration released details of possible tariffs of 10% to be imposed on another $200bn of Chinese goods. 面對美國來勢洶洶，中國的確採取以牙還牙的策略來應對，鎖定美國出口的SUV、豬肉、大豆等商品加課等值關稅。而川普也不甘示弱採取還擊，於本週對價值2000億美元的中國商品加徵10%的關稅。美國此舉激怒了中國，中國矢言將採取更激烈的手段。 Yet in terms of language, including what the state allows Chinese netizens to say online, a shift has occurred. Triumphalism and jingoism are out. One scrap of evidence came on July 6th. As the noon tariff deadline loomed, Chinese social media were gripped by the progress of Peak Pegasus, a ship with a consignment of American soyabeans steaming to reach Dalian port before the deadline. Much of the commentary was lighthearted, urging the hapless soyabeans on. But censors were quick to delete anti-American sentiment. In the event, the vessel arrived too late. 貿易戰如火如荼展開，雙方劍拔弩張。然而在內部言論方面，中國卻顯得收斂許多，甚至開始打擊網路上的激進好戰言論。美國新一波關稅於7月6日中午生效，此前中國社群媒體密切關注Peak Pegasus這艘載有美國大豆的貨貨輪是否能在關稅生效前抵達大連港。大部分的網民都採取輕鬆嬉鬧的態度看待此事，有的還替大豆加油。但是，反美的言論只要一出現就遭到屏蔽。最後，該貨輪沒有如期抵達。 More substantive are the instructions issued to media outlets by China’s propaganda authorities. China Digital Times, a California-based website, reports one such directive. In it, publications are told not to attack Mr Trump’s “vulgarity”, nor to engage in “a war of insults”. It repeats high officials’ calls for “calm and rationality”. Other diktats caution against conveying any sense of Chinese superiority, or claims that China can easily crush America in a trade war. Yet other instructions urge the press to play down China’s plan for global dominance in various technological sectors, known as “Made in China 2025”. It is almost as if officials are promoting a return to the late Deng Xiaoping’s dictum that China should keep a low profile. 中共宣傳部門甚至下達指令，規範媒體的報導。根據加州媒體「中國數位時報」報導，中國媒體接獲命令不得對川普總統進行「人身攻擊」，也不得批評川普總統的行事作風「粗野」，宣傳部門也不斷重申高層的立場：國人要「冷靜理性」。 There are several possible reasons for this shift. Financial and economic vulnerability is the most obvious one. A trade war need not be disastrous. China’s economy depends less on exports than it used to, and the proportion of China’s total trade threatened by tariffs remains relatively small (see chart). Yet China’s indebted economy was already slowing before the trade war. Jitters leading to capital outflows could threaten a financial crisis. On no account, say the leaked instructions, should falls in the stockmarket be linked to the trade conflict. Keep calm and carry on. Accentuate the positive. 中共一改作風的背後，其實有一些潛在原因。最明顯的原因就是害怕影響國內經濟和金融。貿易戰不一定會對經濟造成嚴重傷害，畢竟中國經濟對外銷的依存度已經下降了許多，而且受到美國關稅懲罰的中國商品只占中國貿易量的一小部分。但是，舉債過度的中國經濟早在貿易戰開打以前就開始放緩了，造成了投資人恐慌，資金外流，恐會引發金融危機。宣傳部門指示媒體，嚴禁將股市下跌和貿易衝突扯上關係，而且要專注報導正面的發展。 A related motivation must surely be to avoid a staple of Chinese economic warfare: consumer boycotts. These erupted against Japanese businesses in 2012 and against a South Korean supermarket chain last year, both preceded by belligerent signalling in state propaganda. A large-scale anti-American boycott now would greatly raise political tensions. And given how interconnected the two economies are, it would hurt plenty of Chinese firms, too. For example, a Chinese state entity controls McDonald’s franchises in the country. 另一方面，中共也想避免國內發生消費者抵制美國商品的行為。中國消費者向來喜歡用抵制外國商品來作為宣洩手段，2012抵制日貨，2017抵制韓貨貨，背後都有中共黨媒的叫囂與煽風點火。但是，如果抵制美貨的話，則會加劇中美政治情勢的緊張關係。再加上現在兩國經貿關係緊密，抵制美貨必定會傷害到許多中國企業。中國境內的麥當勞就是中國企業所有。 Overseas, China wishes to win allies in its war by appearing statesmanlike, an image that would be undermined by shrill rhetoric—or too many reminders, in the shape of “Made in China 2025”, that it is bidding to overtake America. Yanmei Xie of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm in Beijing, says China wants to be seen as the defender of the global trade order and so claim the moral high ground. 對外，中國想要透過政治手腕來贏得盟友支持，如果言論過於激進將有害此一策略。另外，中國欲透過「中國製造2025」倡議來超越美國的野心在此時此刻也得收斂。北京一間研究公司研究員透露，中國想要塑造捍衛全球貿易的形象，這樣才有道德制高點。 Chinese officials will play that card at a summit next week in China’s capital with the European Union. They hope to peel away America’s European allies. The Europeans are also targets of Mr Trump’s trade offensive. But whether they will oblige China is another matter. They resent Mr Trump’s attacks on them, and disagree with his approach to China. But they are as frustrated as America is with China’s barriers to investment and its plundering of Western technology. 下週北京即將舉行中國歐盟峰會，中國將善用此一策略來挖角美國在歐洲的盟友，因為歐洲也被川普總統點名在貿易上佔美國便宜。但歐洲國家會不會倒戈加入中國又是另一回事了。歐洲國家普遍厭惡川普的攻擊，不喜歡川普的中國政策，但同時又和美國一樣反對中國設下投資障礙以及竊取西方科技。 There is another factor, only rarely hinted at: the hallowed status in China of Mr Xi himself. For months and months the country’s dictator has been built up not only as a domestic superhero, but as an international statesman of genius. Last autumn government employees across the country were ordered to watch a six-part television series about China’s emergence as a world power. In it Mr Xi, in the starring role, gets fawning praise. Robert Mugabe, before his fall from power in Zimbabwe, calls him “a God-sent person”. Mr Trump talks of his “great chemistry” with Mr Xi. In an article published at the same time, the foreign minister, Wang Yi, declared that his boss had “blazed new trails and gone beyond traditional Western international-relations theory of the past 300 years.” 除此之外，仍有另一因素：習近平在中國近乎神化了。過去幾個月黨媒一直塑造的習近平的神聖形象，對內是個勵精圖治的主席，對外是個連橫合縱的高明政治家。去年政府還組織公務員觀看「厲害了，我的國」紀錄片，宣揚中國崛起，給主角習近平歌功頌德。辛巴威前統治者穆加貝失勢前稱讚習近平為「上帝使者」，川普總統也說自己和習近平「一拍即合」。同時外交部長王毅也撰文稱讚習近平外交思想乃是「對過去300多年來西方傳統國際關係理論的創新和超越。」 In May a journal put out by the Central Party School ran a lead article titled “Extraordinary Leader: A Study of the International Praise for the Super-Strong Leadership of Xi Jinping in the New Era”. The journal called for systematic study of the accolades Mr Xi had earned—a School of Sycophantology, as David Bandurski, co-director of the China Media Project at the University of Hong Kong, puts it. 中共中央黨校於五月發表文章「了不起的領導人：習近平新時代超強領導力國際讚譽研究」，呼籲各界加強學習對於習近平的讚譽。香港大學中國媒體計畫主任David Bandurski稱這種研究為「中國領導科學」。 China’s fear may now be that if frictions worsen with America, Mr Xi could be blamed at home for mishandling a crucial relationship. Criticising America too fiercely, as Yun Sun at the Stimson Centre, a think-tank in Washington, puts it, would suggest to ordinary Chinese that China had failed to outmanoeuvre Mr Trump. That, she says, means the finger points at Mr Xi—“not a happy scenario”. 中國害怕，如果和美國關係惡化，國內民眾會怪罪習近平。華盛頓智庫Stimson Centre研究員Yun Sun指出，批評美國的言論過於激烈的話，會讓中國民眾認為中國政府打不過川普總統，這樣的話習近平就掉下神壇了。 Also unwelcome would be the public tongue-lashings Mr Xi might face from an American president who is currently all sweetness and light in his personal expressions towards China’s leader. Hence the warnings against over-confidence and pleas for a humble demeanour. Early this month the People’s Daily railed against “repeated boastfulness and arrogance…which have hurt the credibility of the media” and “twisted the national psyche”. The paper attacked online articles that “exaggerate and generalise and shout” about China’s accomplishments. Yet it failed to point out that encouragement to do so had long come from the very top. And, as Mr Bandurski puts it, the genie of hype and triumphalism may not in the end be so easy to coax back into the lamp. 同時中國政府也怕川普總統一改對襲擊平讚譽有加的態度，突然針對習近平展開嘴砲攻擊。所以才要求國人保持謙卑低調。人民日報本月稍早也發表文章批評網路充斥「嚇尿體」文章「展現傲慢自大的態度，對於中國的發展自吹自擂，傷害媒體公信力，扭曲國人心理」，但是人民日報沒寫的是，這類文章以前都是官媒自己煽風點火鼓勵的。Bandurski指出，激進言論之火一旦煽起，就很難熄滅。 4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址): https://goo.gl/Aptj29 -- http://imgur.com/OnzJ19N
http://imgur.com/YkVYoeg
http://imgur.com/e1rPfTU
-- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 180.218.3.41 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1531749893.A.7B7.html
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07/16 22:05, 5年前 , 1F
民族性啊
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小雞雜誌
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realtw:經濟學人野雞雜誌
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07/16 22:06, 5年前 , 4F
推。比起貿易，習包子真正重視的是他
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07/16 22:06, 5年前 , 5F
的權力。
07/16 22:06, 5F
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07/16 22:06, 5年前 , 6F
連劉霞都被放出來了,應再多課個20啪關稅
07/16 22:06, 6F
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07/16 22:06, 5年前 , 7F
不惜一切代價的習帝去哪兒了？
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07/16 22:06, 5年前 , 8F
支那狗就是欠打
07/16 22:06, 8F
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07/16 22:07, 5年前 , 9F
野雞雜誌
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07/16 22:07, 5年前 , 10F
可是環球不是這樣講耶
07/16 22:07, 10F
噓
07/16 22:07, 5年前 , 11F
簽名檔不正確xd
07/16 22:07, 11F
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07/16 22:08, 5年前 , 12F
好哦 推
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07/16 22:09, 5年前 , 13F
realcn:野雞雜誌
07/16 22:09, 13F
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07/16 22:09, 5年前 , 14F
推翻譯～這種文鄒鄒的超難翻
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07/16 22:09, 5年前 , 15F
一面倒..根本沒得戰
07/16 22:09, 15F
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07/16 22:10, 5年前 , 16F
野雞小報
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07/16 22:11, 5年前 , 17F
xd
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07/16 22:11, 5年前 , 18F
再亂講話習帝的屁眼又要被三普肛了
07/16 22:11, 18F
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07/16 22:11, 5年前 , 19F
這什麼野雞雜誌，我都看具公信力的環球時報
07/16 22:11, 19F
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07/16 22:12, 5年前 , 20F
不就牛皮快吹破了趕快避風頭 習近平就怕貿
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07/16 22:12, 5年前 , 21F
易戰打輸怪到他頭上
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07/16 22:12, 5年前 , 22F
推翻譯
07/16 22:12, 22F
噓
07/16 22:12, 5年前 , 23F
這哪來的野雞雜誌
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07/16 22:13, 5年前 , 24F
人家採取哀兵政策 接下來就要出其不意
07/16 22:13, 24F
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07/16 22:13, 5年前 , 25F
野雞小報，不可信，環球真實多了
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07/16 22:13, 5年前 , 26F
風林火山 一舉擊潰美帝!
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07/16 22:13, 5年前 , 27F
某人：什麼野雞雜誌
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07/16 22:13, 5年前 , 28F
好
07/16 22:13, 28F
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07/16 22:14, 5年前 , 29F
中國有嚇尿體 台灣有冠妃體
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07/16 22:14, 5年前 , 30F
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07/16 22:15, 5年前 , 31F
繼續裝B沒人會信任你 裝個可憐騙騙歐洲人
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07/16 22:16, 5年前 , 32F
襲擊平
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07/16 22:16, 5年前 , 33F
摘要：縮了
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07/16 22:16, 5年前 , 34F
野雞雜誌
07/16 22:16, 34F
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07/16 22:17, 5年前 , 35F
川普老西醫 專治吹牛B
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07/16 22:17, 5年前 , 36F
劉霞還真的要感謝川普 雖然那不是他的本意
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07/16 22:18, 5年前 , 37F
習包莖被看破手腳QQ
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07/16 22:19, 5年前 , 38F
嚇尿體
07/16 22:19, 38F
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07/16 22:19, 5年前 , 39F
這要翻很久欸 令人佩服 謝謝分享
07/16 22:19, 39F
還有 151 則推文
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07/17 06:23, 5年前 , 191F
濟跟政治面的牽動這點，經濟學人的深度
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07/17 06:23, 5年前 , 192F
不足，畢竟中國的文化跟經濟體制太過特
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07/17 06:23, 5年前 , 193F
殊，中國正面臨外媒還沒想到的困境。
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07/17 07:08, 5年前 , 194F
翻譯的很順
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07/17 07:10, 5年前 , 195F
紙老虎
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07/17 07:28, 5年前 , 196F
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07/17 07:40, 5年前 , 197F
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07/17 07:43, 5年前 , 198F
厲害了。我的包子
07/17 07:43, 198F
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07/17 08:19, 5年前 , 199F
讀起來很順，感謝
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07/17 08:20, 5年前 , 200F
推翻譯
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07/17 08:37, 5年前 , 201F
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07/17 08:38, 5年前 , 202F
北京人忙著游泳 沒空理你
07/17 08:38, 202F
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07/17 08:42, 5年前 , 203F
呵呵
07/17 08:42, 203F
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07/17 08:49, 5年前 , 204F
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07/17 08:58, 5年前 , 205F
叭叭，造謠
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07/17 09:11, 5年前 , 206F
舉債過度的中國，無語
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07/17 09:19, 5年前 , 207F
www
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07/17 09:25, 5年前 , 208F
推 翻譯
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07/17 09:37, 5年前 , 209F
襲擊平XDDD
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07/17 09:50, 5年前 , 210F
目前最精彩連續劇 每天期待看下一集
07/17 09:50, 210F
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07/17 10:11, 5年前 , 211F
好翻譯
07/17 10:11, 211F
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07/17 10:15, 5年前 , 212F
是 7/6 生效吧？
07/17 10:15, 212F
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07/17 10:19, 5年前 , 213F
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07/17 10:23, 5年前 , 214F
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07/17 10:25, 5年前 , 215F
野雞雜誌必推
07/17 10:25, 215F
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07/17 10:31, 5年前 , 216F
支那人:不管啦 我就是最大贏家
07/17 10:31, 216F
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07/17 11:13, 5年前 , 217F
推!
07/17 11:13, 217F
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07/17 11:15, 5年前 , 218F
推翻譯
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07/17 13:00, 5年前 , 219F
推翻譯
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07/17 13:34, 5年前 , 220F
愛亂吠的狗，踹個一腳給牠，以後就乖
07/17 13:34, 220F
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07/17 13:34, 5年前 , 221F
了。
07/17 13:34, 221F
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07/17 13:57, 5年前 , 222F
推翻譯野雞雜誌XDD
07/17 13:57, 222F
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07/17 15:23, 5年前 , 223F
!
07/17 15:23, 223F
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07/17 15:55, 5年前 , 224F
野雞雜誌 英國鄉村小報 我學人 我權威
07/17 15:55, 224F
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07/17 16:02, 5年前 , 225F
翻什麼野雞雜誌, 翻環球啦!
07/17 16:02, 225F
推
07/17 19:41, 5年前 , 226F
支那就是不耐打的紙老虎孬種啊!
07/17 19:41, 226F
推
07/17 19:46, 5年前 , 227F
下次順便上色啊
07/17 19:46, 227F
推
07/18 00:05, 5年前 , 228F
中國被美國壓在地上打這事實大概只有9.2
07/18 00:05, 228F
→
07/18 00:05, 5年前 , 229F
五毛不知道吧嘻嘻
07/18 00:05, 229F
推
07/19 00:06, 5年前 , 230F
感謝翻譯
07/19 00:06, 230F
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