[爆卦] 美國《外交》雜誌: 印度將再被中國打敗消失

看板Gossiping作者ymth時間6年前 (2017/08/05 18:40)推噓3(11推 8噓 8→)

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https://goo.gl/UKgQ6y 節錄 Great power disputes have the potential to wreak havoc throughout Asia, as the Sino-Indian faceoff shows. From New Delhi’s perspective, China continues to try to encircle it from the north, not only in Bhutan but also through the Sino-Pakistan alliance, which links a growing and aggressive power to India’ s deadliest enemy, one that has nuclear weapons trained on India’s major cities. With Chinese naval ships increasingly transiting the Indian Ocean, India feels pressured on land and by sea, accounting in part for its forceful response to the Chinese road-building scheme. Given its concerns over China’ s growth, New Delhi will only bristle at Chinese Minister Wang Yi’s admonishment to “behave yourself and humbly retreat.” 中印對峙表明，大國爭端有可能擾亂整個亞洲。從新德里的角度來看，中國持續在不丹並通過中國-巴基斯坦聯盟從北方對它進行包圍。隨著中國海軍船隻日益頻繁地航經印度洋，印度在陸上和海上都感到了壓力，這是它對中國的修路計劃作出強烈反應的部分原因。由於對中國的發展壯大感到擔憂，新德里只會以憤怒對待中國要求印軍「老老實實地退出去」的告誡。 Yet both countries also have a great deal to lose should they come to blows. Not only would a conflict tarnish China’s reputation as a global leader but anti-Chinese elements in Tibet and Xinjiang could also try to take advantage of any fighting to push back against the harsh Chinese security presence in their territories. As for India, another defeat by the better equipped Chinese would not only be a national humiliation but would raise fears that China’s ally Pakistan might stir up more trouble on their tense border, as well as give China greater influence in countries near India, including Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. 然而，兩個國家一旦開戰，雙方都會損失慘重。衝突會損害中國作為全球領導者的聲譽。西藏和新疆獨立分子也可以嘗試利用任何戰鬥力度來抵禦中國在其領土上的安全存在。至於印度，又一次被裝備更為精良的中國人打敗將不僅是國家的恥辱，而且讓人擔心中國的盟友巴基斯坦會在氣氛緊張的印巴邊界製造更多事端，並使中國在印度附近國家 ——包括不丹、尼泊爾和斯里蘭卡——擁有更大的影響力。 Although full-scale war is unlikely to break out in the Himalayas, a protracted standoff raises the chance of an accident or miscalculation that could cause an armed clash. Other nations, such as Russia or Japan, might also get involved to show moral support for one side or the other, or to possibly offer some type of material aid. As for the United States, there is little, if any, role that it can play other than to encourage both sides to settle their quarrel through diplomatic means. 雖然喜馬拉雅地區不大可能爆發全面戰爭，但曠日持久的僵局會提高發生意外或誤判，從而釀成武裝衝突的可能性。其他國家，如俄羅斯或日本，也可能會被牽扯進來，以向某方表示道義上的支持，或者提供某種物質上的幫助。至於美國，除了鼓勵雙方通過外交途徑解決爭端外，它發揮不了什麼作用。 Doklam may be in one of the most isolated spots on earth, but it reflects one aspect of Asia’s current “great game.” The region’s powerful states all have disputes with each other that have lingered for decades, with little resolution in sight. As they have become richer, thanks to globalization and trade, often with each other, they have modernized their militaries, so as to be able to lay credible claims on contested territory. Throw nationalism into the mix, and the recipe for ongoing crisis is nearly complete. Even if Asia’ s military pot does not boil over, it will be set at a low boil for the foreseeable future. 文章說，洞朗地區或許地處偏遠，但它反映著亞洲當前「大博弈」的一個側面。該地區的各個大國彼此間都有延續幾十年的爭端，解決起來遙遙無期。得益於全球化和貿易，往往是彼此間的貿易，它們日益富裕，同時也使軍隊現代化，從而能夠對有爭議領土提出理直氣壯的主權要求。在把民族主義加進來以後，當前危機的配方差不多完整了。即便亞洲的軍事大鍋不沸騰到溢出來，它也會在可預見的未來保持微沸狀態。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 163.26.71.6 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1501929643.A.D75.html

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