※ 引述《chi11 (chi11)》之銘言:
: 想請教專業的板友,關於這一陣子的日幣貶值,這個情況還會持續嗎?或是要預計要多久才能回到日比台1:0.29~0.3?還回的去嗎?因為之前在這階段時換了一筆,好怕回不去惹@@,在考慮要換回台幣了嗎?謝謝!
上一篇回文的Zuo大是我大學的好友,
我也忍不住來回文了,短短5天,USD/JPY殺到108.8,
你有沒有趕快換台幣啊?
我要再度強調,NTD的波動幅度將會小於JPY,
NTD:彭總的柳樹理論下,USD/NTD能夠破30.5(30.3~30.6)是一件很不容易的事,
2014.11.29要大選,大選+彭總,NTD保證是穩得很,
如果硬以1:0.2500的比率去推算USD/JPY,將是122
以整數關卡理論來看,這一波JPY殺到110將會止穩,
要到120應該是2015年的事,
安倍晉三一直很想讓JPY殺到110~115,不過成效一直不彰,撐在101~103有近一年的時間,
剛好外在的種種因素促進JPY達陣,
但是整體經濟復興的力道並未達成預期,如果滿分是100,那大約就是65~75左右,
JPY大貶刺激出口,提升通膨,擴大消費,
但消費稅從5%=>8%是會反向抑制QE的效果
這二個矛盾的政策卻有著不得不的苦衷,讓復興的力道不夠強勁,
那麼,2015年的8%=>10%,復興的邊際效益一如QE1=>QE4的施行,逐次遞減,
JPY應該會在115~120就差不多了,了不起122.
接著,就看國際事件的引導,美國的升息力道,歐盟ECB的QE成效左右著.....
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