Re: [閒聊] BABiP All-Stars & NO-Stars

看板FBaseball作者caspercheng (Big Papi)時間13年前 (2012/05/13 22:44)推噓2(2推 0噓 2→)

留言4則, 3人參與討論串3/3 (看更多)

假日沒事做,來翻一下這篇文章英文很爛,附上原文,請各位鞭小力一點... Jose Bautista sports just a .272 career BABIP and posted a low .233 mark during his breakout 2010 season, so he is no stranger to BABIP struggles. You can see from his batted ball distribution why he has had problems maintaining a league average rate. He hits a low percentage of liners, is an extreme fly ball hitter and pops it up more often than the league average. While his BABIP and average will obviously rise, it is going to be tough for him to post another .300+ BABIP the rest of the way like he did last year, even given an expected improvement in power. Of course, if you stumble upon an owner who suddenly feels he is no longer a first round value, then he’s worth targeting in trade. Jose Bautista生涯的BABIP只有.272，在他Break out的2010年也只有.233，所以不用為他的BABIP較低而感到意外。從擊球的分佈可以知道他為何無法讓他的BABIP 維持在聯盟的平均水準。他很少打平飛球，卻打了比聯盟平均還高的飛球跟內野必死球。儘管他的BABIP跟打擊率將會明顯的上升，要他有像去年一樣.300+BABIP甚至是更好的 Power都是很困難的。當然，如果你發現盟中有人突然覺得他沒有第一輪的價值時，他將是個很好的交易對象。 Eric Hosmer has generally performed exactly as projected, except for his BABIP and batting average. Our own Jeff Zimmerman recently looked at how teams are employing a shift against him like they do against other left-handed pull hitters such as Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard. While that would certainly explain why Hosmer’s BABIP has declined, the magnitude of the drop cannot possibly be entirely due to the shift. One of the major drivers of value for Hosmer in fantasy was his ability to steal bases. He has only stolen one so far in two attempts, but given his .252 OBP, it isn’t surprising that he hasn’t stolen more yet. While it is less likely Hosmer posts another .300+ BABIP the rest of the way, better luck should rear its head sooner or later. Eric Hosmer的表現一如預計，除了他的BABIP跟打擊率。我們的員工Jeff Zimmerman 最近開始觀察對方球隊如何在他打擊時佈陣，如同對上像Mark Teixeira跟Ryan Howard 此類的拉打型球員。這可以解釋為什麼Hosmer的BABIP下降了，但下降的幅度無法全部歸咎於佈陣。Hosmer還有一個對於FB玩家十分大的價值是盜壘。他本季在兩次盜壘機會中跑了一次，但因為他的上壘率只有.252，所以他並不用為他盜那麼少而感到意外。僅管他不太可能像去年一樣打出.300+的BABIP，但至少他不會像現在一樣衰。 Adam Lind has suddenly become a ground ball hitter, which is not a good thing when you have little speed. All his other numbers are not too far out of line, though. However, with the signing of Vladimir Guerrero, if his slump continues, he’ll have to worry about losing playing time as the team has a number of alternatives to play first base, including current designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion. Lind’s fantasy upside isn’t very high, which means he could come quite cheap in AL-Only leagues. Adam Lind突然變成了一位滾地球打者，如果你只有一點速度，這對你來說可不是一件好事。他其他的數據都與過去相差不遠。然而，在球隊與Vladimir Guerrero簽約之後，再加上DH上有Edwin Encarnacion，球隊在一壘上有了其他選擇，如果他再繼續爛下去他就要開始擔心他的位置不保了。這使得他的FB價值不會很高，在AL-Only的聯盟中會變得十分便宜。 Like Lind, Ike Davis has also taken to the ground ball, having posted a mark above 50% that is more closely associated with speedsters. The good news is that his HR/FB ratio has been just fine, so he is still hitting the ball hard. Throughout his minor and Major league career, Davis has always posted a high BABIP, as it has never dipped below .318 at any stop. That provides more optimism that the balls will start dropping in sooner rather than later. Of course, his strikeout rate is up and he is swinging at more pitches outside the zone. So his batting average may still very well disappoint through the rest of the season even assuming his BABIP rebounds. 如同Lind一般，Ike Davis也打了許多滾地球，打出接近50%的滾地球比較容易在快腿上看到，好消息是他的HR/FB還是很好的，所以他還是把球打得很遠。綜觀不管是在小聯盟或大聯盟，他的BABIP從來不低於.318。所以可以對他擊出安打保持樂觀態度，當然，他的三振率上升了，因為他揮擊了更多外角球。所以儘管他的BABIP將會反彈，在季末時還是不會有好看的打擊率。 When you strike out as much as Rickie Weeks and already post mediocre batting averages even with a league average BABIP, it looks disastrous when the BABIP luck fairies disappear. Weeks’ problems this year are fairly obvious from the surface – he has hit a very low percentage of liners, instead hitting pop ups like a mad man. That is the opposite of the recipe for a strong BABIP. Weeks has never been much of a line drive hitter and always had problems popping it up, so this is nothing new, but it has been more extreme than usual so far this year. His power is also down, but at least he is walking at a career high pace. The injury risk will always remain, but there’ s no reason to think that Weeks won’t rebound and start turning his pop ups into line drives shortly. 如果你的三振像Rickie Weeks一樣多，而儘管有聯盟平均水準的BABIP，打擊率卻還是一樣平平，當你開始衰的時候，你會看起來像個自殺棒。Weeks今年的問題相當明顯，他的平飛球打得很少，取而代之的是他像個狂人一樣打了許多內野必死球，這與擁有高 BABIP背道而馳。Weeks從來不是平飛安打型球員，而總是將球打成彈跳球，所以這不是個新問題，但今年這個問題比往年更加明顯。他的Power也下降了，但至少他今年選到生涯最高的保送率。他的受傷風險始終存在，但沒有理由認為Weeks不會反彈而開始將他的內野必死球轉變為安打。 Amazingly, Brian McCann currently sports a higher line drive rate than BABIP. You don’t see that very often. Actually, even more incredible is that he hasn ’t even hit one pop up all season! His walk rate sits right at his career average, his strikeout rate is actually down and his power is normal. This all screams out that an improvement is coming, and fast. Of all the hitters on this list that I discussed, McCann is the clearest candidate to see his BABIP rise rapidly. 令人訝異的，Brian McCann的LD%比他的BABIP還高，你不會很常看到這個情況，事實上，更令人驚訝的是，他今年還沒打出過任何一支內野必死球！他的今年保送率維持在生涯平均，他的三振率下降了而Power始終存在。這都顯示他將會更好，而且很快的就會變好。在所有上述的打者中，McCann是最容易看到他的BABIP快速上升的球員。 -- ◥█◤ B ◥██◤ ███ ███ ███ █▅█ Boston Red Sox █ ███ ◥▇＼／◥ ██◤ █ █▂█ █▆▆ ███ W-L 13-5 █ █▆█ ◥██‘.‘ █◣ █ ███ ▂▂█ █ █ ERA 3.41 123K █ █ ◥|||◣▃ ▃███◤ ██◣ ███ ◢██ █▃█ ███ ███ ███ ◥█║◤ ▅◢/\◥█ 鬥 █▆█ █▆▆ █ ██▃ █▆▆ █ █ ◥█◣\/ ║║||▁█◤ 魂 █▆█ █▆▆ ◥██ █ █ █▆▆ █ █ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.44.66.143 ※ 編輯: caspercheng 來自: 114.44.66.143 (05/13 22:46)

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