[英冠] Brentford的「魔球」哲學

看板FAPL作者CFC1905 (Blue Is The Colour)時間5年前 (2018/08/24 22:06)推噓18(18推 0噓 20→)

留言38則, 14人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

最近稍微有在關注英冠賽事，在Reddit翻舊文時無意間發現這篇今年八月初的文章，覺得蠻值得討論的，所以試著翻譯一下。 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁ https://twitter.com/JamesTippett/status/1024669925066137600 THREAD: BRENTFORD’S “MONEYBALL” PHILOSOPHY 賓福特的「魔球」哲學 James Tippett - 2018年8月1日 ◎ Bees have 21st highest playing budget in the Championship, yet four consecutive top 10 finishes. 在24支英冠球會中，蜜蜂軍團的比賽經費僅名列第21名，卻在過去四個賽季裡均能以前十名的戰績結束賽季。 ┌────────────────┐ │Brentford F.C. 過去五個賽季排名│ ├────┬──┬────────┤ │賽季 │聯賽│ 排名 │ ├────┼──┼────────┤ │2013-14 │英甲│ 第2名（升冠） │ ├────┼──┼────────┤ │2014-15 │英冠│ 第5名 │ ├────┼──┼────────┤ │2015-16 │英冠│ 第9名 │ ├────┼──┼────────┤ │2016-17 │英冠│ 第10名 │ ├────┼──┼────────┤ │2017-18 │英冠│ 第9名 │ └────┴──┴────────┘ ◎ Gray, Hogan, Odubajo, Jota, Tarkowski, Egan (cost ￡4.4m), sold for ￡38.5m. Andre Gray、Scott Hogan、Moses Odubajo、Jota、James Tarkowski、John Egan，賓福特只花了440萬英鎊買入這六名球員，賣出時卻能得到3850萬英鎊。 ◎ Revolutionary use of Expected Goals (xG) in recruitment. 在引援工作上，對預期進球數值分析的革命性運用。 This thread will explain how “little old Brentford”, a club with the finances and stadium of a League One/Two team, have managed to transform themselves into a side consistently fighting for promotion to the Premier League. 這篇文章將解釋，「小不拉嘰的老賓福特」這支財政狀況與場館大小不過是英甲/英乙等級的球會，是如何將自身轉變為升超的持續競爭者的。（註：蜜蜂球場Griffin Park僅能容納12763人） https://i.imgur.com/PVGRmsP.jpg

Brentford have the fourth lowest playing budget in the Championship, but have managed to achieve four consecutive top ten finishes since their promotion from League One in 2014. 在英冠聯賽裡，賓福特的比賽經費是第四低的，但自從2014年升冠後，他們已經連續四個賽季維持前十名的戰績。 Their story has been likened to the “Moneyball” revolution in baseball. 他們的故事，與職棒的「魔球」革命頗為類似。 https://i.imgur.com/vEULmft.jpg

In football, money is power. 在足球的世界裡，金錢就是力量。 The correlation between the size of a club’s wage bill and their success in the league pyramid is incredibly strong. 一支球會的薪資規模與他們在聯賽的成功與否，呈現極其強的正相關。 Brentford are the only consistent anomaly of the last few years. (not indicated in graph below, as weren’t in top two divisions.) 在過去數年裡，賓福特是唯一一支始終如一的「反例」（並未顯示在以下的圖表，且那段時間賓福特也不在英超與英冠聯賽比賽）。 https://i.imgur.com/CotUtzr.jpg

Brentford realised that if David fights with the same weapons as Goliath, he will surely lose. 賓福特知道，假如大衛用一樣的武器和歌利亞搏鬥，他必然會輸。 In order to compete with much wealthier clubs, they had to be SMARTER and develop unique means of operating. 為了與更富有的球會競爭，他們必須更聰明地競爭、發展出更獨特的經營方式。 https://i.imgur.com/kT20xgx.jpg

The Bees main innovation has come in the recruiting of players. 蜜蜂軍團主要的革新在於球員引援方面。 Put in extremely simple terms, Brentford have utilised the Expected Goals method to consistently sign UNDERVALUED players. 用最簡單的術語講，賓福特利用分析預期進球數的方法，持續簽入價值被低估的球員。 They have managed to pick up several high quality players for rock-bottom prices. 用這種方法，他們以最低點的價格簽下許多高品質的球員。 https://i.imgur.com/0KBt0go.jpg

HOWEVER, they don’t just buy players who are undervalued. 不過，他們並不只是買入價值被低估的球員。 Brentford also look to SELL players who are OVERVALUED. When a club is willing to pay more for a player than he is intrinsically worth, Brentford are keen to sell him. 當球員的價值被高估時，賓福特也會將他們賣掉。當一支球會願意花費比某球員本身價值要更多的錢來買他，賓福特便很精明地把他賣掉。 Brentford treat players like a trader treats stocks. The golden rule: 賓福特看待球員，正如股民看待手中的股票。他們的黃金法則便是： BUY when one is UNDERVALUED 買入－當某球員價值被低估； SELL when one is OVERVALUED 賣出－當某球員價值被高估。 https://i.imgur.com/d54jOa9.jpg

Scott Hogan is an example of a player who become overvalued. When Villa offered ￡12m for the striker, Bees fans didn’t want him to go. Scott Hogan便是個價值被高估的例子。當維拉為這名前鋒開出1200萬英鎊的價碼，蜜蜂球迷並不希望他離開。 However that money has since been invested in a whole new generation of undervalued talent, who will also be sold on when they become over-priced. 不過，這筆錢在之後會被投資在新一代的有才球員，而這批球員之後也將被賣出，在他們被開出超過本身價值的高價之後。 https://i.imgur.com/R9sknTb.jpg

Here is the “Brentford FC Moneyball XI”: 這張圖顯示「賓福特魔球十一人」： Bought for ￡6.7m Sold for ￡57.3m 買入－670萬英鎊賣出－5730萬英鎊 Profit: ￡50.6m 淨利潤－5060萬英鎊 https://i.imgur.com/aA7VXBe.jpg

Over the last four years, those specific eleven players have been bought for and sold for a profit of over ￡50m. 在過去四年裡，這十一名球員被買低賣高，讓球會賺了超過5000萬英鎊。 To put that in perspective, Brentford have only spent ~￡22m in their entire 130-year history. (their record transfer fee paid was ￡2.7m this summer for Said Benrahma.) 做為比較，賓福特在球會過去130年歷史裡只花了2200萬英鎊在球員引援方面。（他們的轉會紀錄保持人是Said Benrahma，這個夏天球會以270萬英鎊的「高價」將他買入） These are only a few examples of players who Brentford have brought in for cheap, and sold for a premium. 這不過是賓福特逢低買入、逢高賣出的其中幾個例子罷了。 The Bees have become transfer market maestros, and are probably the most well-run club in the country when it comes to recruitment. 蜜蜂軍團已經成為轉會市場的「大師」，而且可能是這個國家在引援方面，經營狀況最良好的球會。 https://i.imgur.com/W0cqZOT.jpg

But how exactly do Brentford continuously manage to find hidden gems? 但是，賓福特究竟是如何持續找出隱藏寶石的呢？ The key lies with their owner, Matthew Benham, who also owns statistical analysis company Smartodds. 關鍵在於球會的老闆Matthew Benham（註：2013年入主球會），他同時也是數據分析公司 Smartodds的老闆。 Smartodds collects Expected Goals data on football matches, and uses this data to win millions each year through betting on football. Smartodds蒐集每場球賽的球員預期進球數據，並利用這些數據，每年成功地靠賭球營利數百萬。 However, Benham also uses the data collected by the company to recruit players for Brentford FC. 不過，Benham也利用公司蒐集的數據，為賓福特招募球員。 https://i.imgur.com/sZklmz0.jpg

Here’s a thread on the Expected Goals method (xG) which I would recommend checking out before/after reading the rest of this thread... 這裡是一篇有關預期進球數（xG）的文章，我推薦大家在閱讀本文之前或之後去閱讀這篇文章...... https://twitter.com/JamesTippett/status/1011268751579283457 In extremely simple terms, the Expected Goals method tells you which teams/players are actually performing well, and which have simply been lucky. 用最簡單的術語來說，預期進球數告訴你，哪支球隊/哪位球員確實表現良好，而哪一些只是那天運氣比較好。 Brentford have used this information to spot players who are underrated by the rest of the footballing world. 賓福特使用這些資訊，聚焦那些被足球世界其他人低估的球員。 https://i.imgur.com/qjNZ4Nh.jpg

For example, in 2014 Brentford’s analysts noticed a striker called Andre Gray who was playing in the Conference (the 5th tier of English football) for Luton Town. 舉例來說，2014年，賓福特的分析師注意到有位前鋒叫Andre Gray，他為第五級聯賽－議會全國聯賽的魯頓鎮踢球。 Brentford managed to snatch him up for ￡500k, selling him to Burnley for ￡ 9m (+ ~￡3.5m sell-on fee) the next year. 賓福特以50萬英鎊的價格簽下他，隔年便以900+350萬英鎊將他賣給班來。 https://i.imgur.com/t6HS7qh.jpg

Brentford’s statistical philosophy has allowed them to compete with far wealthier teams 賓福特的統計哲學，使他們能與遠比他們富有的球會競爭。 Here’s an extract from The Football Code (written before last season)... 這裡是我上賽季前在The Football Code寫的一篇文章的摘錄...... https://i.imgur.com/ufMxqED.jpg

若要依財務狀況為英格蘭足球聯賽的每支球隊排出一個預期排名，再與他們的真實排名相比，賓福特連續三個賽季在英冠聯賽名列前十的成績，將使他們成為足球史上最超出預期的球隊之一。在他們最近的一個賽季，即2016-17英冠賽季，賓福特的薪資開銷僅約每週17.2萬英鎊，這代表在財務狀況上，這支球隊僅排在英冠24支球隊的第21名，只有三支球隊的薪資開銷比這支西倫敦球隊還低。在2016-17賽季，英冠球會的平均薪資開銷是每週37.5萬英鎊，這代表一支平均水準的英冠球隊，其薪資開銷超過賓福特的兩倍。蜜蜂軍團在賽季結束時的排名超過阿斯頓維拉（週薪95.1萬英鎊）、卡地夫城（週薪44萬英鎊）、諾丁漢森林（週薪33.9萬英鎊）、女王公園巡遊者（週薪40.2萬英鎊）與狼隊（週薪44.4萬英鎊）。如果從財務狀況來看，賓福特本應是為保級而戰的球會，但Benham的分析系統與革新的球會經營策略，使他們得以在英冠聯賽名列前十。做為比較，前十名的其他九支球隊，平均週薪是51.1萬英鎊，賓福特的三倍。更要記住的是，蜜蜂軍團在2015-16賽季名列第九，而在2014-15賽季，他們更令人難以置信地取得第五名（註：升超附加賽準決賽兩回合累計 1-5負於米德爾斯堡）。Benham的系統使賓福特得以持續挑戰優勢者。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 27.52.226.44 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/FAPL/M.1535119607.A.86C.html ※ 編輯: CFC1905 (27.52.226.44), 08/24/2018 22:40:01

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mvpdirk712

08/24 22:24, 5年前 , 1^F

08/24 22:24, 1^F

賓果，文章裡有一張《魔球》電影的截圖。

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kodo

08/24 23:01, 5年前 , 2^F

08/24 23:01, 2^F

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kodo

08/24 23:01, 5年前 , 3^F

08/24 23:01, 3^F

之前看籃球，我也不太喜歡運動數據化。但我傾向這篇文章是提供另一條出路，告訴小本經營的球會，如何在金錢足球的大趨勢下，對抗砸錢土豪隊。雖然我感覺蜜蜂這樣做升不了超，但排名還稱得上穩定，這其實也沒什麼不好。看看天空城利用降級補償金瘋狂砸錢，但到目前為止還沒嘗過勝利的滋味...... ※ 編輯: CFC1905 (27.52.226.44), 08/25/2018 00:00:07

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shifa

08/25 00:04, 5年前 , 4^F

08/25 00:04, 4^F

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shifa

08/25 00:04, 5年前 , 5^F

08/25 00:04, 5^F

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shifa

08/25 00:04, 5年前 , 6^F

08/25 00:04, 6^F