[閒聊] 一直打不到XX裝
※ 引述《orz65535 (′‧ω‧‵)》之銘言:
: ※ 引述《Kahn0926 (囧囧囧)》之銘言:
: : 請問一下聖教套裝阿克漢是不是很容易打到重複的部位阿?
: : 小弟總計打了九件阿克漢
: : 手套X2
: : 肩膀X4
: : 鞋子X3
: : 就是沒看過頭跟胸...............= =
: : 智能掉寶是不是不會偵測人物套裝有缺的部位@@?
: 複習一下高中數學
: 先假設每一個部位的阿克和掉落率均等(實際不然)
: 依據你的狀態,你打了9個阿克漢,因為三個部位沒有所以上來PO文
: 所以就計算9個阿克漢,沒有三個部位的機率(你沒褲子但沒提到)
: 6
: 3^9 * C3
: ----------- = 0.0391 = 3.91%
: 6^9
: 不是要賣弄數學,只是想跟你說你的情況沒有稀有到什麼程度
一時興起,那麼,「我巔峰已經XXX了,卻一直沒看過喬丹」,這樣的發生機率有多少?
各種傳奇掉落率不同,這個因素先忽略,暫設為相同,
傳奇物品共有436件,而唯一的變數,就是至今為止,共打了多少件傳奇。
打了幾件傳奇 一直打不到某件傳奇的機率
1 99.8%
10 97.7%
20 95.5%
50 89.2%
100 79.5%
200 63.2%
500 31.7%
1000 10.1%
2000 1.0%
以上的數字,還只是假設各傳奇掉落率相等,如果再算上傳奇中的傳奇,
那大概要打到10000以上,才有資格說自己的臉很黑。
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噓
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可以自我估計,一天大概打幾光
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噓
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樓上們,如果不做假設去簡化模型,我哪能隨便就算出來?
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要算個別臉黑機率,也不難,數據都有了,只是要拉一個很大的excel表,很費時間...
還有 39 則推文
還有 1 段內文
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樓上都有人跟你舉例了:這個世界上是沒有剛體的;
那我們何必學高中物理?
※ 編輯: Dialysis (114.34.118.139), 06/12/2014 12:09:14
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