[討論] Miguel Cabreara is...underrated?
今天在官網看到Statcast推出的新玩具 Hit Probability ( https://goo.gl/zupgEg )
他的原理是利用球擊出的速度跟角度
然後根據過去的統計資料 推算出球形成安打的機率
( ref: https://goo.gl/N2Nxiw )
然後以下是預估的OPS與實際上的差距排行:
Largest difference between Actual and Estimated OPS in 2016
.147 -- Kendrys Morales, Royals
.142 -- Cabrera, Tigers
.114 -- Albert Pujols, Angels
.093 -- Joe Mauer, Twins
.085 -- Howie Kendrick, Dodgers
意思就是米糕的OPS比理論上要低.142
回推之後的數據長這樣:
Actual 2016: .316/.393/.563 .956 OPS .399 wOBA
Estimated 2016: .342/.416/.682 1.098 OPS .459 wOBA
官網解釋這其中差距的原因之一就是老虎主場CoPa廣闊的中外野
看一下這張圖就大概了解了: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ctd3kylWcAAEMfM.jpg
米糕是2016年超過400英呎飛球被沒收最多次的打者
這個數據2017年球季會在官網上線 到時候可以來看看CoPa外野到底沒收多少長打~
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