Fw: [外電] Jake Arrieta-從邊緣人到頂尖

看板Cubs作者Zamned (宮園かをり R.I.P.)時間8年前 (2015/08/31 12:35)推噓4(4推 0噓 6→)

留言10則, 5人參與討論串1/1

※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1LribFHj ] 作者: fountainNess (秋本平吉千人將) 看板: MLB 標題: [外電] Jake Arrieta-從邊緣人到頂尖時間: Fri Aug 21 14:46:36 2015 這篇寫於四周前,這四周之間Jake Arrieta又為小熊拿下四勝 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jake Arrieta: From fringe Major Leaguer to elite starter by Randy Holt 4w ago It doesn’t seem like too long ago that the baseball world was almost talking about Jake Arrieta in the past tense. That may seem dramatic, but with the Baltimore Orioles, Arrieta was a guy who looked like he could end up being nothing more than a fringe Major League pitcher, with high upside, but unable to harness his stuff effectively enough to develop into the type of starter that the O’s hoped he could be. Jake Arrieta曾經差點是棒球界裡的過去式.還在巴爾的摩金鶯隊的Arrieta看起來就是一個MLB邊緣的先發投手.雖然他有著高的天花板,但卻始終沒辦法將自己的天份轉換成金鶯所期望的那種先發投手. Even after a career year in his first season with the Chicago Cubs, in which he went for a 2.53 ERA and a 2.26 FIP, there were those who called for a regression in 2015, given the lack of history of success that Arrieta had demonstrated at the big league level. But here we are, midway through the 2015 campaign, where Arrieta has not only established himself as a consistent starter for the Cubs, but has developed into one of the very best up on the bump in the National League. 由於Arrieta過去的成功並不多,儘管在小熊的第一個球季投出生涯年(2.53ERA/2.26FIP), 仍有不少質疑者認為他在2015將會衰退.但是在現在,2015球季中段,Arrieta不僅僅成為一個固定先發,他更逐漸發展成國聯頂尖先發投手之一. Arrieta has built on that career year from 2014 this season, with his 3.7 WAR setting him on pace to eclipse the 5.1 figure he posted last year. His ERA and his FIP are identical, with both currently standing at 2.52 coming out of his start on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves. He’s keeping the ball on the ground, with a 51.2% GB rate that is the highest in his career, while punching out 9.30 hitters per nine and walking just 1.96 per nine. Arrieta今年又重現了一次生涯年.目前3.7WAR的節奏看來會超過去年繳出的5.1WAR.ERA跟 FIP相當,都是2.52.他持續讓球留在地上,有著生涯最高的滾地球率51.2%.此外他平均每九局三振掉9.30個打者,同時保送不到兩次(1.96). That latter figure is perhaps the most intriguing, given Arrieta’s control problems in the past. In 2011, Arrieta made 22 starts with the Orioles in which he walked 4.45 per nine. Across 14 starts in 2013 with the O’s and Cubs, Arrieta posted a 4.90 K/9. He improved greatly last year, at 2.36 and now has a figure that is not only his career mark, but ranks 24th among 97 qualifying starters in all of baseball, and 12th in the National League. 由於Arrieta過去的控球問題,保送率的下降令人感到興趣.Arrieta在2011投的22場先發裡平均每九局保送4.45人.2013年中的14場先發,則是4.90次.去年進步良多來到2.36,但今年的數字不僅僅是生涯新高,更是97位局數夠的先發中第24低,在國聯則是排名第12. The following represents where Jake Arrieta ranks across the board against the rest of the National League: 以下是Jake Arrieta繳出來的成績單,括弧內為國聯排名 ERA: 2.52 (8th) FIP: 2.52 (4th) K/9: 9.30 (8th) BB/9: 1.96 (12th) WHIP: 0.98 (6th) ERA-: 66 (12th) WAR: 3.7 (4th) The numbers really tell the story there. If one were to go by WAR, it’s easy to determine that we’re looking at one of the very best starters not only in the NL, but in all of baseball. The scary thing for the rest of the National League is that Arrieta has gotten better as the year has progressed. After posting a 3.99 ERA in May, he went for a 2.45 figure in June and has posted a 1.17 mark thus far in July. In fact, July has been his best month overall, with a WHIP of just 0.72 and a FIP of 1.69, both of which represent his lowest marks of the season. 數字會說話.如果我們從WAR來看,我們看到的不只是國聯,而是聯盟中很棒的先發投手之一. 恐怖的是,Arrieta的成績隨著時間的推進越來越好.五月的ERA是3.99,再來是2.45,再到七月的1.17.事實上,七月是他的最佳月份,WHIP僅有0.73而FIP是1.69(兩者都是所有月份中最低). It isn’t terribly difficult to determine where Arrieta’s success is coming from, either. Arrieta has relied primarily on a two-seam fastball, with his four-seam usage actually dipping 10 percent, to just 9.04% of the time, according to Brooks Baseball. That sinker usage has jumped from 27.55% in 2014 to up over 39% in 2015. Where Arrieta really earns his bones is with a slider that has been affectionately referred to as a “slutter”, which makes up 31.29% of his pitches and about 14% of his whiffs. When he needs it, he has a highly effective curveball that he works in there as well. That’s an elite mix of pitches, and harnessing each one has allowed Arrieta to take these steps to an elite level. 不難看出Arrieta的成功是哪裡來的.Arrieta主要仰賴他的二縫線速球,四縫線的使用率下探到9.4%.伸卡使用率從2014年的27.55%躍升到今年的39%.Arrieta實際上的成功主要來自於他的滑球(被稱為slutter→滑球加卡特),這顆球的使用率是31.29%並且在揮空比例上佔 14%.當Arrieta需要時,他還有一顆很有效的曲球.利用這頂級的球路組合讓Arrieta一步步成為頂尖投手. Arrieta has actually picked up velocity almost across the board, with a near 1 MPH increase in his two-seamer, as well as the slider. Additionally, each pitch he brings to the mix has movement on it that has made life very difficult for hitters, as illustrated by the following: Arrieta幾乎所有球種的球速都變快了,二縫線和滑球都增加1MPH.更進一步的,位移更大的球種讓打者非常困難.如圖所示. http://imgur.com/c9291z8

His sinker tails in against righties and away against lefties, while the slider does just the opposite. It has a 3.20 in. horizontal movement, making it a pitch that moves away from right-handed hitters, while moving in toward lefties . Which makes his pitch usage a relatively obvious, but effective, formula: 他的伸卡向右打者的內側走,走向左打的外側.滑球則是完全相反而且有著3.20的水平位移. 雖然他使用球種的傾向相對好猜,但相當有效. http://imgur.com/h8SrvNL

But again, it all comes back to Jake Arrieta being able to harness his tremendously high upside. He’s always had these types of pitches in his arsenal, he just didn’t have the ability to control him to the point where he could become an effective starter. Working with Chris Bosio in Chicago has obviously been an incredible asset for him, as evident by his walk numbers, which continue to diminish. Jake Arrieta一直都有著這樣的武器,但他就是無法控制球,進而無法成為有效率的先發投手.小熊隊的Chris Bosio明顯給了他很多幫助,讓他的保送率持續下降,讓他的天份能夠發揮. In his short time with the Cubs, we’ve seen Arrieta develop from a guy with upside who could potentially be “a guy” in the rotation to a completely legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter. In forming that 1-2 punch with Jon Lester, it isn’t any sort of surprise that the Cubs that sits at the top of the league in FIP and fifth in Major League Baseball in ERA. Not only has Arrieta improved, he’s done so to the point where we don’t have to question whether or not he’s elite anymore. He is. 在Arrieta在小熊隊裡短短的時間,我們看著一個有著高天份的選手變成一個合格的前段輪值.有著Jake Arrieta和Jon Lester這樣的一二連拳,我們並不會對小熊領先國聯的FIP和全大聯盟第五的ERA感到意外.Arrieta不只進步了,他進步到一個我們不需要質疑他是否頂尖的程度.他已經是頂尖投手了. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 今天的Arrieta又投出一場六局無失分附帶七次三振的好投,率領小熊7:1輕取斧頭幫他今年的成績來到這樣: 1st in NL in W (15) 3rd in NL in IP (168.0) 5th in NL in SO (170) 3rd in NL in ERA (2.30) 6th in NL in WHIP (0.99) 3rd in NL in W% (.714) 3rd in NL in CG (2) 令人不經好奇,今年如果要打外卡驟死戰,要派Jon Lester還是Jake Arrieta呢? -fountainness -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.243.120.58 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1440139599.A.46D.html

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Zamned大,我看FG的pitch velocity覺得很奇怪12~14還有計算cutter均速到15就剩slider pitch type顯示12~14的cutter使用率也僅介於1.0~1.6%,而slider都是24.8%以上我傾向解讀成FG把Arrieta的cutter歸類為滑球,是這樣嗎?

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