Re: [情報] BP Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects
1. OF Albert Almora
The Tools: Shows all five; plus projections on hit/power
Strengths: Well-rounded tool collection; feel for the game is outstanding and
allows tools to play above grade; 5 arm; 5 run; 6 glove; future hit could be
easy 6; excellent bat speed; gets into zone quickly and efficiently; power
has above-average potential; shows advanced game skills; lauded for work
ethic/makeup; now talent that could move fast.
Weaknesses: Range in CF is tied to read/react skills and instincts, not plus
raw speed; lacks high-end physicality; lacks elite tools; upside isn’t as
sexy as teammate Javier Baez; aggressive approach has yet to be tested; small
professional sample
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division starter
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; more polished than the average teenager;
shows advanced feel and instincts for the game; high floor; respectable
ceiling; most likely falls short of star status.
Fantasy Future: .290/.350/.450 from premium defensive position, with 10-15
home run pop, plenty of doubles, and a chance to steal 15-20 bases at a high
success rate.
Major league ETA: 2016
2. SS Javier Baez
The Tools: Hit tool could be elite; easy plus-plus raw power; 7 arm
Strengths: Bat speed is off-the-charts; hands are incredible on both sides of
the ball; electricity in the bat; very loud contact ability; hit tool could
develop into monster status; raw power is at least a 7 and could end up
playing that high at full maturity; arm is a 7; actions at shortstop are
fluid and easy.
Weaknesses: Wild approach at the plate; swings with violent intensity; taking
hacks is putting it mildly; will expand his zone and chase; pitch-recognition
skills have been called into question; needs to slow the game down;
overplays; range at shortstop only catalyst in down-the-line position change;
fringe 5 runner at present who could end up a 4 at physical maturity
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star level player
Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; plays the game with reckless approach;
needs to mature to reach potential; could be very special or very frustrating.
Fantasy Future: If everything clicks, Baez could hit for both a high average
and high power (30-plus HR) from a position on the left side of the infield.
He could be a monster.
Major league ETA: 2015
3. OF Jorge Soler
The Tools: Big raw power; plus arm
Strengths: 7 raw power; easy bat speed; loud contact off the barrel to all
fields; plays with strength and athleticism; solid approach at the plate;
recognizes early; will work counts; plus arm; good carry; runs very well for
a right fielder; shows some overall feel for the game; assimilation has been
smooth (so far).
Weaknesses: Questions about the future utility of the hit tool based on a few
mechanical hitches that could limit his ability to stay inside of quality
stuff; defensive profile puts pressure on bat to achieve first-division
value; unknown hurdles associated with assimilation process; small
professional sample.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Explanation of Risk: High risk; shows some now skills and a mature approach,
but the bat hasn’t been tested enough; still early in assimilation process.
Fantasy Future: Could develop into a prototypical first-division right
fielder; the hit tool might only play at average, but secondary skills should
allow for some on-base ability and game power (25-20 HR). Shows good speed
for his size and good game awareness, so he could also swipe 10-15 bases a
season.
Major league ETA: 2015
4. RHP Arodys Vizcaino
The Tools: Plus-plus fastball; plus curve
Strengths: Easy cheese from an explosive arm, working comfortably in the
92-95 range as a starter and touching the high-90s in bursts; very lively
offering with good, late action; hard curve is another money pitch, with a
tight rotation and two-plane movement; good control.
Weaknesses: Lacks size; when he slips under the ball, the lack of plane hurts
him; more control than command; lives loose in the zone; changeup has more
flash than fire; profiles as low-5 offering at best; injury history; delivery
features some effort.
Overall Future Potential: 7; late-inning reliever (frontline setup).
Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; injury history; likely to end up in
bullpen.
Fantasy Future: Could be frontline setup arm in bullpen; closer for some
teams; will miss bats in any role.
Major league ETA: 2011
5. 1B Dan Vogelbach
The Tools: Enormous raw power; plus potential hit tool; big makeup
Strengths: Light-tower power; 80 raw; generates tremendous bat speed with
fast hands and fluid hip explosion; stroke is shorter than most power
hitters; quick and easy to the ball; doesn’t have to sell out for power
stroke; ball naturally explodes off the bat; loud contact to all fields;
makeup is championed by every source contacted for the report; big
personality.
Weaknesses: Bad body; lacks defensive value; profiles as bat-only first
baseman or designated hitter; limited range; poor speed; below-average
defender at first; can be beat with pitchability, particularly spotted balls
off-middle or quality velo under the hands; immense pressure on the bat for
success; will have to prove it at every level.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Explanation of Risk: High risk because of bat-only profile; plus makeup and
natural hitting ability give him a chance.
Fantasy Future: Power could play above 6; .280-plus batting average is
possible; won’t steal bases and won’t provide defensive value of any kind.
Major league ETA: 2016
6. OF Brett Jackson
The Tools: Can show all five tools; four tools grade at avg-to-plus
Strengths: Average defender in center field; can play all three outfield
spots; run is plus; raw power is above-average; has on-base skills and will
make a pitcher dig into the arsenal; shows a feel for the game; big work
ethic.
Weaknesses: Lacks a loud tool; hit tool is fringe-average at best; plays
lower; arm is only average; defensive profile in center is only average; game
features too much swing-and-miss; overmatched by quality stuff; hasn’t
progressed much since college; profile closer to fourth outfielder than role
5 projection.
Overall Future Potential: 5; major-league regular
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; already achieved major-league level;
works hard; competes; good chance to carve out major-league career.
Fantasy Future: If Jackson achieves his ceiling, he could start up the
middle, with a low batting average (.~250) and lots of strikeouts, but enough
secondary skills to have value (on-base, 15-20 HR, 15-20 steals).
Major league ETA:
7. RHP Pierce Johnson
The Tools: Plus fastball; plus potential curveball
Strengths: Good size and wiry strength; fastball works in the 90-93 range,
but he can get more when he needs it; good angle to pitch; good sinking
action; can get ahead with the pitch; curveball is hard breaker; 81-84 mph,
with late break, good shape, and depth; deep arsenal; will also show a cut
fastball and a changeup; knows how to miss bats.
Weaknesses: Hasn’t been able to stay healthy; delivery has some effort;
deliberate with secondary arsenal; changeup is inconsistent; doesn’t play as
average offering yet.
Overall Future Potential: High 5/Low 6; no. 3 starter at the major-league
level
Explanation of Risk: High risk; injury history with the arm; behind the
developmental curve.
Fantasy Future: Has bat-missing ability and a deep arsenal; has mid-rotation
ceiling; body needs to prove it can hold innings, but should be able to
produce good counting stats like wins/strikeouts if healthy and in a rotation.
Major league ETA: 2015
8. RHP Duane Underwood
The Tools: Easy plus velocity in fastball; plus potential curveball
Strengths: Huge arm strength; electric fastball that has the potential to be
special; will work in the plus velocity range with some sink; has touched
higher; arm is very fast; ball explodes from the release; it's easy velocity
now and projects to work even higher; changeup shows some maturity for his
age; plays well off fastball, with fastball arm speed and slot consistency;
good action to the arm-side; plus athlete; curveball has plus potential
Weaknesses: Limited professional sample; arm works well, but low pickup and
drag force it to go a long way; secondary arsenal is immature; delivery is
athletic, but inconsistent, and control is below-average at present.
Overall Future Potential: High-6/low-7; no. 2 starter at the major-league
level.
Explanation of Risk: Extreme; only 18-years-old; wide gap between present and
future; ~10 professional innings under his belt.
Fantasy Future: Electric arsenal could produce high strikeouts totals; has
the potential to be a 15-plus game winner (based on ultimate upside).
Major league ETA: 2017
9. 3B Christian Villanueva
The Tools: 7 glove; 6 arm; 5 power potential; big makeup
Strengths: Plus (to plus-plus) defensive profile, with an ultra-slick glove,
strong arm, and solid range; excellent feel for the position; soft hands in
the field; quick reactions; good instincts for the ball; fast hands at the
plate; can square velocity and stay inside pitches; shows the ability to hit
for some power; works the gaps; mature approach; isn’t fast, but runs the
bases well and plays with intelligence; hard worker.
Weaknesses: Lacks typical offensive profile for third base; shows impressive
bat speed, but overall hit tool utility is average at best; struggles against
quality breaking stuff; power most likely limited to 10-15 home runs; body is
physically mature and could lose a full speed grade if he adds bad weight.
Overall Future Potential: 5; solid-average regular at major-league level
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; mature player with mature skill-set; doesn
’t need big grade jumps to compete.
Fantasy Future: Not an ideal offensive third baseman, but could hit
.260-plus, with good secondary skills (on-base/power); can surprise people
and swipe a few bases; plays defense at a very high level.
Major league ETA: 2014
10. RHP Dillon Maples
The Tools: Big arm strength; plus fastball/curveball potential.
Strengths: Plus-plus fastball potential; can work the pitch in the 92-96
range, and has touched higher; has good plane; pitches taller than 6’2’’;
natural weight makes the ball difficult to lift; curveball is power breaker,
thrown as hard as 82-84 mph, with 12/6 movement; projects as plus pitch; good
overall athlete.
Weaknesses: Delivery isn’t fluid or repeatable; doesn’t finish; doesn’t
make it look easy; command is well below-average; fastball velocity is
inconsistent; changeup is still underdeveloped; limited on-the-field
experience at the professional level
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2/3 starter at the major-league level.
Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; injury history; mechanical red flags;
needs big grade jumps.
Fantasy Future: Has the potential to pitch in the middle of a major-league
rotation, and maybe more if he reaches his ceiling. He will have the stuff to
miss bats, and could emerge as a rotation horse if he can stay healthy and
find arsenal maturity. High ceiling, but extremely high risk.
Major league ETA: 2017
Prospects on the Rise
RHP Juan Carlos Paniagua
SS/2B Marco Hernandez
3B Jeimer Candelario
Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013)
RHP Tony Zych
RHP Trey McNutt
IF Junior Lake
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/87 or later)
1. Starlin Castro
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. Albert Almora
4. Javier Baez
5. Jorge Soler
6. Arodys Vizcaino
7. Dan Vogelbach
8. Brett Jackson
9. Pierce Johnson
10. Duane Underwood
Quote:
...The biggest thing for the Cubs next year will be the development of their
lower-level talents. The big-league team will continue to suffer, but the
Cubs have a valuable asset in the trade market with Matt Garza, who will be a
free agent after the season. The high-upside talent at the bottom of the
system should be supplemented with a nice package of prospects if and when
Theo Epstein and company decide to pull the trigger on a Garza deal.
A Parting Thought:….With a casual glance, the Cubs system might appear to be
top heavy, with a partisan lean towards high-ceiling bats. But the deeper you
dig, the more raw talent you discover on the mound, and even though it’s
immature and a sizeable journey away from legitimacy, the talent is there to
develop high-ceiling arms to match the high-ceiling bats.
If that was against site policy I can take it down. It's not all the info or
the full article...I cut a lot of it out.
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