[閒聊] 覺得后面的四年香港會感謝蔡英文
蔡英文當選,可以預期:
1. 推翻或延期前任與大陸達到的陸臺合作;
2. 為難涉陸協議的快速通過;
3. 推進近靠美日;
4. 為臺獨或獨臺進一步奠定相關基礎。
直觀評測,可能帶來以下后果:
1. 臺灣從大陸損失的眼前利好會大于近期從美日獲得的;
2. 大陸會采用經濟手段對蔡發信息;
3. 蔡會在很長的一段時間里,也許會一直堅持她的觀點
并導致大陸經濟手段可能加強。
4. 從臺灣流失的大陸利好會首先分流至
香港、韓國。
考慮到香港與大陸同受經濟大環境影響,可能會優先流入香港。
合理推測,
未來四年間,香港會感謝蔡英文。
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